276^3

Bitcoin is monetary infrastructure | Digital property is the future | Full node runner | Veteran bond investor and economist.

[276^3 @276cubed]

Our monetary system devalues currency over time and taxes savings already diminished by inflation. #Bitcoin

[Balaji @balajis]

THE GOLDEN AGE
The fiat crisis has begun. So what wins in the end: gold, digital gold, or some other kind of precious metal or cryptocurrency? Only time will tell, and different assets have different failure modes, but here are some thoughts.

(1) First: remember that Bitcoin's value proposition is seizure resistance. Not your keys, not your coins.

(2) To explain what that means, think through the mechanics of physical gold. It's great...if you can buy it, transport it, secure it, and sell it safely. But it's much easier to do that when you live in a highly organized state, like China. However, such a state can also track you to your doorstep to seize the gold, once it runs up in price. That's what FDR did in the 1930s and what China is fully capable of doing in the 2020s:

(3) So when you think through the game theory, as the price of gold rises, the cries to tax (or seize!) the physical gold will also rise. Note: we need not even mention paper gold here. In a true crisis, such claims are not worth the paper they're printed on. That's why many countries are repatriating their gold. Not your bricks, not your gold!

(4) By contrast to physical gold, digital gold (and cryptocurrency more generally) can be securely bought, sold, sent, and received at any time, in any amount, and in any location. It is invisible, international, instantaneous, and internet-native. And it is transportable, programmable, and easily verifiable in a way gold bricks simply aren't.

(5) In particular, digital gold is seizure-resistant in a way that physical gold is not. The same holds true for cryptocurrency as a class. Go back to the fundamentals: seizure resistance is part of why cryptocurrency was invented as an alternative to precious metals.

(6) This is not to say that physical gold won't have its day. If you live in a safe, small country like the United Arab Emirates, you may be able to buy your gold and eat it too. They probably won't expropriate property there.

(7) Moreover, it is quite likely that many countries (particularly in the East) will soon re-standardize their currencies on gold, or digital gold, or some mixture of precious metals and digital assets. As I've been noting for years, BRICs has been stacking gold bricks:

(8) However, don't overreact towards gold. The successors to the American Empire are China and the Internet. You should think of this as the past and the future replacing the present. China will replace the dollar with gold, along with physical commodities that it can touch, feel, and control. Meanwhile, the Internet will replace the dollar with digital gold, along with digital assets that it can encrypt, script, and verify.

(9) So: feel free to hedge as you see fit between the physical past and the digital future, with just one caveat: namely, you may not want to buy physical precious metals unless you're in a financially and physically secure region of the world. That probably means being outside North America and Western Europe. Because those countries are in the midst of sovereign debt crisis. And as that crisis deepens, both their failing states and their angry mobs are going to be hunting for whatever they can steal.

(10) In other words, what's much more important than allocation is location. Ray Dalio expressed this obliquely in one of his earlier interviews, where he said that "location" is a risk:

What Ray actually meant is: if you live in a jurisdiction that heavily depends on the dollar (which includes the entire G7), you want to get out. Because the total pauperization that follows the end of the dollar may mean that angry mobs (or government agents, or both) may come to your home, steal your assets, and perhaps rip you limb-from-limb in the process.

A cheery thought...yet also historically precedented. That's what came to Eastern Europe and Asia in the 20th century during the rise of communism. And that's what may come to North America and Western Europe after the end of Keynesianism.

Prior to such a situation, you really do not want to buy gold bricks, which you can't transport through an airport. You want to hit the bricks. You want to move faster, escape things. Get as far away from the dollar zone as you can...but physically first, rather than financially.

After all, "staying and fighting" a sovereign debt crisis caused by decades of money printing is like staying and fighting a volcanic eruption caused by decades of earth moving. You didn't cause it, and you can't stop it, but you can easily be wrecked by it. So emigrate just as the early Americans emigrated from Europe. Unless you believe the Irish Americans "betrayed" Ireland by leaving, unless you really want to spend the rest of your life paying down welfare and warfare debts you didn't incur, you should change your location out of the G7. And then do whatever allocation you like.

Or just ignore this analysis and do what you see fit. Your call, of course. If so, I really do hope my MAGA friends are right that "The Golden Age of America Begins Right Now." Because I also think we are on the verge of a type of Golden Age, and a Bitcoin Age...but in a very different way.

[276^3 @276cubed]

@Cointelegraph bullish.

[276^3 @276cubed]

@bitfinex #Bitcoin

[276^3 @276cubed]

@Pledditor @Strategy That's perfectly consistent.
NEVER SELL YOUR BITCOIN.
😉

[276^3 @276cubed]

🟠 #Bitcoin Influencer Sentiment | Nov 26 2025

🟢 ~55% ⚪ ~30% 🔴 ~15% (near-term)
Tone → cautiously bullish in a brutal drawdown (fear index at extremes, BTC -20%+ in Nov).

Summary: Sentiment hurt but not broken. Long-term adoption + halving flows vs. near-term ETF outflows, forced liquidations and macro risk-off. If flows + liquidity return, most still see this as a deep correction, not the end of the cycle.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Markets #Macro #ETF #OnChain #Liquidity #Adoption #Halving #Investing #Trading

[276^3 @276cubed]

#Bitcoin

[276^3 @276cubed]

Goal for the year: increase my #Bitcoin stack.
Achieved. 🚀

[276^3 @276cubed]

@daveweisberger @scottmelker @JamesWynnReal @cryptomanran Rule #1: Peace. Respect. ₿itcoin.

[276^3 @276cubed]

@lowbeta #Bitcoin

[276^3 @276cubed]

🟠 Bitcoin Influencer Sentiment | Nov 6, 2025.

🟢 ~62% (65% before) ⚪ ~28% 🔴 ~10% (near-term)
Tone → cautiously bullish: ETF-flow chop, conviction intact.

Sources: Altcoin Daily, MMCrypto, Davinci Jeremie, The Moon Carl, Anthony Pompliano, Coin Bureau, Scott Melker, Michael Saylor, PlanB, Willy Woo, Lyn Alden, James Seyffart, Ki Young Ju, Checkmate, Peter McCormack, Lark Davis, Arthur Hayes, Samson Mow, Dylan LeClair, Rekt Capital, Crypto Zombie, Eric Balchunas

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Markets #Macro #ETF #OnChain #Liquidity #Adoption #Halving #Investing

[276^3 @276cubed]

@blocktrainer Only for UAE residents.
https://t.co/H7QY2BFuDz

[276^3 @276cubed]

Macro Bitcoin Brief | Tue 4 Nov 2025

💬 Quick Lvls (vs Mon): BTC 104.2k (-3.1%) | EURUSD 1.151 (-0.1%) | S&P500 6,791 (-0.9%) | Nasdaq 23,543 (-1.2%) | Gold $3,990 (-0.3%) | Brent $64.7 (-0.2%) | US10Y 4.09% (-2 bp) | Bund10Y 2.65% (-1 bp) | Swap10Y 2.64% (-2 bp)

₿ Bitcoin: Spot under pressure as dollar firms; leverage washouts but structure intact above ~$103k.

🗓️ Key data ahead (7 d): • Wed 5 Nov — US ISM Svcs (Oct); China Caixin Svcs PMI (Oct)
• Thu 6 Nov — BoE rate decision & MPR; Eurozone Retail Sales; US Jobless Claims
• Fri 7 Nov — US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct); Germany Factory Orders (Sep)
• Mon 10 Nov — (light)
• Tue 11 Nov — (light/holidays)

💵 Rates & CBanks: Fed cut 25 bp on Oct 29 → 3.75–4.00% target; QT wind-down signaled. ECB depo steady at 2.00%. BoE decision Thu (watch guidance).

📊 Inflation & Money (latest): Euro area flash HICP (Oct) 2.1% y/y (core ~2.4%). Germany CPI (Oct, flash) 2.3% y/y (core ~2.8%). US CPI (Sep) 3.0% y/y (core 3.0%). UK CPI (Sep) 3.8% y/y.

📈 Equities / Tech (highlights): – Alphabet tops $100bn revenue; Cloud +34%; capex lifted to $91–93bn.
– Meta: ~$16bn one-time tax hit; 2025 capex guided $70–72bn; shares dipped.
– Amazon: AWS +20% y/y; Q4 sales guided $206–213bn.
– Palantir slides despite upbeat outlook; broader mega-cap tech pulls back today.

🌍 Politics / Trade: – US–China: tariff pause framework + fentanyl working group; talks continue on export controls.
– EU debates terms/sunset clause for prospective US tariff deal.
– Tariffs remain front-and-center for markets in “Trump 2.0”; EU-China EV tariffs still biting; China retaliatory probes on EU goods ongoing.

#Markets #Bitcoin #BTC #Investing #Fed #ECB #BoE #PMI #ISM #NFP #Tech #Macro

[276^3 @276cubed]

🟠 Bitcoin Influencer Sentiment | Nov 3, 2025

This is what AI suggests. DYOR.
Tone: cautiously bullish — ETF-flow noise, conviction intact.

Read on 20+ top voices (last 7d):
🟢 ~65% • ⚪ ~25% • 🔴 ~10%
Divergences: Long-term adoption/halving flows vs. near-term chop (ETF outflows, liquidity timing). If flows re-accelerate → path higher.

Sources: Altcoin Daily, MMCrypto, Davinci Jeremie, The Moon Show, Anthony Pompliano, Coin Bureau, Scott Melker, Michael Saylor, PlanB, Willy Woo, Lyn Alden, James Seyffart, Checkmate, Ki Young Ju, Crypto Zombie, Lark Davis, Peter McCormack, Samson Mow, Mike Alfred, Dylan LeClair, Rekt Capital, Eric Balchunas, Alex Thorn

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Markets #Macro #ETF #OnChain #Liquidity #Adoption #Halving #Investing

[276^3 @276cubed]

Macro Bitcoin Brief | Mon 3 Nov 2025

💬 Quick Lvls (vs Fri close):
BTC 107.9k (-2.6%) | EURUSD 1.155 (-0.2%) | S&P500 6,840 (0.0%) | Nasdaq 23,725 (0.0%) | Gold $4,015 (+0.3%) | Brent $65.0 (+0.4%) | US10Y 4.11% (~0bp) | Bund10Y 2.65% (+1bp) | EUR Swap10Y 2.64% (~0bp)

₿ Bitcoin:
ETF flow drag lingered late week; pullbacks partially met by dip-buyers; macro week ahead in focus.

🗓️ Key data ahead (7d):
• Mon 3 Nov — US ISM Mfg (Oct), Construction Spending; Final PMIs (global)
• Tue 4 Nov — US JOLTS (Sep), Trade Balance/Factory Orders (Sep); RBA decision
• Wed 5 Nov — ISM Services (Oct); China Caixin Svcs PMI; DE Factory Orders (Sep)
• Thu 6 Nov — BoE rate decision & MPR; EU Retail Sales (Sep); US Jobless Claims; Riksbank decision
• Fri 7 Nov — US NFP (Oct); DE Industrial Production (Sep); Canada Jobs (Oct)

💵 Rates & CBanks:
Fed -25bp to 3.75–4.00%, QT ends Dec 1 | ECB on hold (Dep 2.00%) | BoJ steady (~0.5%) with optionality for Dec | BoE Thu.

📊 Inflation & Money (latest):
US CPI (Sep) 3.0% y/y | UK CPI (Sep) 3.8% y/y | EA flash HICP (Oct) 2.1% (core 2.4%) | DE CPI flash (Oct) 2.3% y/y

📈 Equities / Tech (high-signal):
• Apple: Q4 $102.5bn rev / $1.85 EPS; iPhone & Services records.
• Amazon: AWS +20% y/y; Q4 guide $206–213bn.
• Alphabet: $102.3bn rev (+16%); Cloud +34%, capex $91–93bn (AI).
• Meta: EPS hit by ~$16bn one-off tax; AI capex $70–72bn.

🌍 Politics / Trade:
• US–China: tariff de-escalation signals alongside broader talks.
• China–EU: anti-dumping duties on EU pork (up to 62.4%); hearing held Oct 31.
• EU–China EVs: EU BEV tariffs remain; Chinese brands keep gaining share in EU.
• US: 25% tariffs on imported medium/heavy trucks & parts effective Nov 1.

#Markets #Bitcoin #BTC #Investing #Fed #ECB #BoE #PMI #ISM #NFP #Tech #Macro #Trade

[276^3 @276cubed]

Asia up, #Bitcoin down, not rational tbh.
🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 52,411 (+2.1%)
🌆 Hang Seng 26,160 (+0.7%)
₿ Bitcoin (USD) 107,200 (-3.0%)

#Markets #Bitcoin #Asia

[276^3 @276cubed]

🟠 Bitcoin Influencer Sentiment | Nov 2 2025
Tone: cautiously bullish — ETF-flow noise, conviction intact. Not sure if always correct, this is what the AI suggests:

🟢 ~60–70% Bullish • ⚪ ~20–30% Neutral • 🔴 ~10% Bearish-short term

Top voices 👇
#AltcoinDaily 🟢 Nov setup strong (new vid/thread)
#MMCrypto ⚪ Cautious: watch pullbacks/false breakouts
#DavinciJeremie 🟢 HODL/stack sats tone
#TheMoon 🟢 “Big move ahead” chatter
#AnthonyPompliano 🟢 Adoption + macro optimism
#CryptoBanter 🟢 Bullish-trader; manage risk
#BenjaminCowen ⚪ Data-driven, wait for confirmation
#CoinBureau ⚪ Selective Q4 outlook
#ScottMelker 🟢 Liquidity/institutional bid view
#MichaelSaylor 🟢 Whitepaper-day conviction posts
#AdamBack 🟢 Halving + flows tailwind
#PlanB 🟢 >100k path via cycle/S2F
#WillyWoo 🟢 On-chain accumulation narrative
#LynAlden ⚪ Macro supportive, mind rates
#JamesSeyffart ⚪ ETF flows/filings focus
#KiYoungJu 🔴 Near-term inflow cooling risks
#Checkmate ⚪ LT-holder distribution caution
#CryptoZombie ⚪ Mixed; vol risk noted
#LarkDavis 🟢 Q4 tailwinds / alt season talk
#PeterMcCormack 🟢 BTC > Gold narrative

Summary: Momentum paused ≠ bearish. Fewer “breakout now” calls; more “accumulate & wait.” Macro neutral, liquidity decent; path higher if flows re-accelerate.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Markets #Macro #ETF #Halving

[276^3 @276cubed]

Macro Bitcoin Brief | Sun 2 Nov 2025
💬 Quick Lvls (vs Fri):
BTC 110.95k (+0.9%); EURUSD 1.1537 (0.0%); S&P500 6,840 (+0.3%); Nasdaq 23,724.96 (+0.6%); Gold $4,015.9 (-0.35%); Brent $64.8 (~+0.6%); US10Y 4.11% (~0bp); Bund10Y 2.64% (~0bp); EUR Swap10Y 2.64% (~0bp).

₿ Bitcoin:
Spot ETF outflows into week-end (~$0.6bn) a mild headwind; price steady >110k.

🗓️ Key data ahead (7d):
Mon 3 Nov — US ISM Mfg (Oct); global final PMIs
Tue 4 Nov — US JOLTS (Sep); US Trade Bal/Factory Orders (Sep)
Wed 5 Nov — ADP (Oct); US ISM Svcs (Oct); China Caixin Svcs PMI (Oct)
Thu 6 Nov — BoE rate decision & MPR; EU Retail Sales (Sep); US Jobless Claims; DE Factory Orders (Sep)
Fri 7 Nov — US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct); DE Industrial Production (Sep) (week)

💵 Rates & CBanks:
Fed -25bp → 3.75–4.00%, QT ends Dec 1 | ECB on hold (Dep 2.00%) | BoJ steady (~0.5%) but signals Dec risk | BoE on Thu.

📊 Inflation & Money (latest):
US CPI (Sep) 3.0% y/y; UK CPI (Sep) 3.8% y/y (CPI), 3.9% core CPIH; EA flash HICP (Oct) 2.1% (core 2.4%); DE CPI flash (Oct) 2.3% y/y.

📈 Equities / Tech:
• Apple: Q4 rev $102.5bn, EPS $1.85; iPhone & Services records.
• Amazon: AWS +20% y/y; guides Q4 sales $206–213bn.
• Meta: EPS hit by large tax charge; AI capex step-up.
• Nvidia: market-cap headlines keep AI leadership in focus.
• Netflix: announces 10-for-1 stock split (boosted sentiment).

🌍 Politics / Trade:
• China–EU: Oct 31 hearing on EU pork anti-dumping; provisional duties 15.6–62.4% in effect.
• US–China: administration signaled potential tariff escalations/adjustments around Nov 1; talks frame a limited thaw, not a deal.
• EU–China EVs: elevated EV tariffs remain; discussions on minimum prices/undertakings continue; Chinese makers adapt (local EU production, PHEVs).

#Markets #Bitcoin #BTC #Investing #Fed #ECB #BoE #PMI #ISM #NFP #Tech #Macro #Trade

[276^3 @276cubed]

@VitalikButerin Yes, but what would ETH be worth without Vitalik?

[276^3 @276cubed]

🟠 Bitcoin Influencer Sentiment | Nov 1 2025
Not certain whether this is correct, but this is what the AI suggests.

Overall tone → Cautiously bullish
🟢 65 % Bullish ⚪ 25 % Neutral 🔴 10 % Bearish

Narrative: “short-term chop, long-term up-only.”

Top Voices 👇
#AltcoinDaily 🟢 “Strong Nov setup”
#MMCrypto ⚪ Cautious – warns pullback risk
#DavinciJeremie 🟢 HODL mode
#TheMoon 🟢 Big Nov move talk
#AnthonyPompliano 🟢 Adoption focus
#CryptoBanter 🟢 Bullish-trader tone
#BenjaminCowen ⚪ Macro caution
#CoinBureau ⚪ Selective Q4 outlook
#ScottMelker 🟢 Liquidity push view
#MichaelSaylor 🟢 “Bitcoin forever” energy
#AdamBack 🟢 Halving + flows tailwind
#PlanB 🟢 > 100 k targets via S2F
#WillyWoo 🟢 On-chain accumulation
#LynAlden ⚪ Macro supportive but watch rates
#JamesSeyffart ⚪ ETF flows only
#KiYoungJu 🔴 Cooling inflows warning
#Checkmate ⚪ Cautious – LT holder distribution
#CryptoZombie ⚪ Mixed – vol risk
#LarkDavis 🟢 Q4 tailwinds / alt season talk
#PeterMcCormack 🟢 BTC > Gold narrative

Summary:
Momentum paused, but sentiment not broken.
Fewer “breakout now” calls, more “accumulate & wait.”
Macro = neutral, liquidity = okay, cycle narrative intact.
Nov may start quiet but ends strong if flows return.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Investing #Markets #Macro #ETF #Halving

[276^3 @276cubed]

Macro Bitcoin Brief | Sat 1 Nov 2025
💬 Quick Lvls:
BTC 110.0k | EURUSD 1.154 | Gold $4,016 | Brent $64.7 | US10Y 4.10% | Bund10Y 2.63% | EU Swap10Y 2.63%

₿ Bitcoin:
– US spot BTC ETFs saw ~$0.5–0.6bn net outflows late week → mild headwind for price.

🗓️ Key data ahead (next 7 days):
• Sat 1 Nov — China NBS PMIs (Oct)
• Mon 3 Nov — US ISM Mfg (Oct); Global final PMIs
• Tue 4 Nov — US JOLTS (Sep); US Trade Balance (Sep); US Factory Orders (Sep)
• Wed 5 Nov — US ADP (Oct); US ISM Services (Oct); China Caixin Services PMI (Oct)
• Thu 6 Nov — BoE rate decision & MPR; US Jobless Claims; EU Retail Sales (Sep)
• Fri 7 Nov — US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct); Canada Employment (Oct)

💵 Rates & CBanks:
– Fed: -25bp to 3.75–4.00%; QT to end Dec 1.
– ECB: on hold (Dep 2.00%). BoJ: on hold (~0.5%) while keeping door open to a Dec move.
– BoE: decision Thu, 6 Nov.

📊 Inflation & Money:
– EA flash HICP (Oct) 2.1% y/y, core 2.4%; DE CPI flash (Oct) 2.3% y/y.
– EA M3 (Sep) +2.8% y/y; US M2 trend stable.

📈 Equities / Tech:
– Month-end tone mixed; oil subdued mid-$60s Brent; UST 10Y ~4.10% into ISM/NFP week.

🌍 Politics / Tariffs:
– US–China: continued talk of selective tariff easing;
– China–EU: anti-dumping action on EU pork remains in focus amid EV tensions.

#Markets #Bitcoin #Investing #Fed #ECB #BoE #PMI #ISM #NFP #Macro