Jim •A• Bianco

Macro investment research at total return index is at ETF WTBN tracks our Index.

biancoresearch.eth

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

Hello guys,

TG DM is open, leave your messages on there

@DeadFlowersbyth @HornOfPhynance @Psixi2 @ljmers @PeterM32208

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[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

Hello guys

TG DM is open, leave your messages on there

@Murraybruce88 @sedonaroxx @MrJackGroth @richwu55 @Tryng2lookahead

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[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

Hello guys

TG DM is open, leave your messages on there

@PSully_mbs @Michael86030712

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[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

Hello guys,

TG DM is open, leave your messages on there

@wescosteve @Looper66Matthew @PasqualePerri7 @goldenpipeftw @Eric76096489183 @MarilleyDavid

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[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Are you ready for the next Facts vs Feelings?!

Epic time with @sonusvarghese @jeffkilburg and @biancoresearch live from Chicago!!

[Milk Road Macro @MilkRoadMacro]

The market keeps treating the Strait of Hormuz like a temporary inconvenience.

@biancoresearch thinks that's a massive mistake.

Global oil inventories are being drained to keep prices under control. If this disruption lasts longer than expected, inventories hit operational minimums and force demand destruction.

Translation: oil could go WAY higher than markets are pricing in.

Treating a structural problem like a temporary one is how you get blindsided.

Every single time.

FT @BitcoinJesusETH

Tune in to know more

⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱
00:00 – Intro
01:32 – Iran Exits Peace Talks
05:40 – Oil Shock Coming?
07:41 – How Every Crisis Starts
11:42 – Warsh’s First Big Test
15:40 – Inside The New Fed
17:21 – Can Warsh Shrink The Fed?
21:57 – Sponsor: Cape
22:42 – Sponsor: Nexo
23:20 – Why Stocks Keep Rising
26:23 – Is AI Actually Overvalued?
32:56 – The AI IPO Tsunami
38:34 – Sponsor: Kalshi
39:16 – Jim Bianco’s 2026 Playbook
43:04 – Final Thoughts

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

Yesterday, VOO, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, surpassed $1 trillion dollars in assets. The first ETF to hit this milestone.

IVV and SPY are in second and third place; they are all S&P 500 tracker ETFs.

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

The Federal Reserve Act says the President can fire a Fed Governor "for cause."

No President has attempted to fire a Fed Governor "for cause," so no one knows what this means.

Trump is attempting to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook for cause, claiming she committed fraud in

[Bloomberg @business]

Former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank would lose the credibility that’s required to support a strong and stable economy if any president were free to dismiss Fed officials over policy disagreements https://t.co/vD5AjIXF8b

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

Here is my take, which is consistent with the Goehring & Rozencwajg letter in the repost?
----
Every crisis—1997, 2008, 2020—starts with the same institutional script: treating a structural problem as a temporary liquidity glitch. Wall Street is hardwired to assume that

[Goehring & Rozencwajg @Go_Rozen]

[New Research] US natural gas trades at a 70% discount to international prices. We think that could close more quickly than anyone realizes.

For details, access our latest commentary here: https://t.co/JCncPWRbIa

#naturalgas #oil #assetmanagement

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

This chart is more important

Token usage (blue bars) is exploding higher. It started in January when Agentic AI went mainstream with Claude Cowork and Moltbook (OpenClaw).

AI users are creating agents and code, leading to exponential growth in AI usage.

It's just starting.

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

Peaking?

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

1/2

Yesterday, I posted the chart below, which shows that the entire "war rally" in the stock market has been driven by AI. Take out AI, and the rest of the stock market has done little since gasoline started soaring (blue).

Is this a bubble? Probably. But the more important

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

2/2

In the repost below, I argued that the stock market is the most concentrated in a single theme in 150 years. The last time we saw anything resembling this level of concentration was the railroads in the late 19th century.

It should be that way! The railroads literally

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

Hey Chicago!

Facts vs Feelings is coming this week and we are bringing @jeffkilburg and @biancoresearch

You better be there. 🍻 ⚾

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

Last week, Michael Harnett of BofA included this chart in his May 22 "Flow Show."

As this reposted thread below details, we have not seen the market this concentrated around a single theme in 150 years.

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

1/5

Yesterday, AI-related stocks hit a high as a percentage of the S&P 500.

The AI influence on the stock market has never been larger.
🧵

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

1/5

Yesterday, AI-related stocks hit a high as a percentage of the S&P 500.

The AI influence on the stock market has never been larger.
🧵

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

4/5

On Nov 22, 2022, ChatGPT released a free research preview. This launched the "Generative AI era." That is, ask a question, get an answer.

Since this release, AI stocks (blue) have accounted for 70% of the gains in the S&P 500's market capitalization.

The "other 459"

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

5/5

Similarly, on January 12, 2026, Claude Cowork and Moltbook (now OpenClaw) pushed "Agenti AI" into the mainstream.

Agenti AI is where AI can "do things for you." Create files (like PowerPoint slides or Excel spreadsheets), update files, and sort information in files

[Nothing To See Here @TylerHardt]

I can't believe the runway I have gotten out this meme over the last 9 weeks. What it says about the intelligence of the marginal market participant is stunning. @agnostoxxx

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Iran's Fars News pushing back on Trump's post (again).

Strait of Hormuz pushback screenshot below.

Beyond that, Fars also saying that Trump's claim about "no money" is wrong: "According to the agreement text, [$12bn in frozen funds] must be paid immediately, and until this payment is made, Iran will not enter any subsequent negotiation stage."

And Fars claims absolutely no mention of nuclear material (re: Trump's claim that Iran agreed to destroy)

Some pretty big conflicting details here.

[Jim •A• Bianco @2biancoresearch]

1/3

As we await Trump to emerge from the Situation Room with a decision ...

What does the market think?