13 under-discussed topics in advertising:
1. Google paid Apple $20 billion in 2022 to be iPhone's search engine.
2. Apple's ad business is set to grow by 650% by 2026 to $30 billion.
3. Bytedance (TikTok) was the 2nd biggest advertiser in the world - $19.2 billion spent on ads. It returned 3.2x in revenue.
4. In 2009, Jeff Bezos said: "Advertising is the price you pay for having an unremarkable product or service.
In 2022, Amazon became the biggest advertiser in history: $20.2 billion in ad spend. U-turn.
5. Amazon might be the biggest advertiser in history -- but they've also made more from Amazon ads than Amazon Prime in 2022: $38 billion from Amazon ads.
6. Uber and Instacart made $650 million and $740 million from advertising respectively.
7. Of the top 25 advertisers in the world, Walmart delivered the highest return on dollars spent. They spent $3.9 billion -- but made $146x for every dollar spent.
Walmart also made $2.7 billion from its ad product.
8. China has 4 companies in the world's top 25 advertisers: Ali ($12.6 billion), Bytedance ($19.2 billion), JD ($5.1 billion) and Tencent ($4.9 billion)
9. France has 2 companies in the world's top 25 advertisers: LVMH ($10.4 billion) and L'Oreal ($13.1 billion)
10. The UK only has 1 company in the world's top 25 advertisers: Unilever ($7.8 billion)
11. Pepsi spent $3 billion on advertising, which is $1.32 billion less than Coca-Cola, which spent $4.32 billion.
12. YouTube made $29.9 billion from ads in 2022.
Unlike Disney and Netflix, their bottom-up content model of ad share revenue prevents content risk that other platforms have. Bullish.
13. The number one users of Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, and WhatsApp: India.
A friend of mine runs a startup that's running out of cash.
You've probably heard of it.
So, today he signed a term sheet to sell the business.
They've raised $16.5M and investors are making $0.18 on the dollar.
He is 27 and is super bummed.
I don't blame him. The team is basically getting jobs at the acquirer.
Imagine spending 8 years on a startup, your literal blood, sweat and tears only to see it evaporate?
We're going to see more of this as venture-backed startups fail to raise rounds over the next 12-18 months.
I've been there. Spending years building a VC-backed thing only to see the only ones getting paid to be VCs.
But, if you're an expert on the internet. You will become wealthy.
It's worth zooming out. Pretty much the entire world is connected to this thing with a credit card.
You just have to show up everyday.
You have to get loud on the internet. In whatever niche you're in.
And just keep building and add value.
Anyone can start a side-business on the internet with monthly recurring revenue.
Finding startup ideas? Free, go find validated them on Reddit
Finding customers? Free, build a niche audience
Finding power customers? Free, build a community
Finding talent? Free, DM interesting people on X
You don't need a Harvard degree or a trust fund to get going either.
I'll repeat it because it's worth internalizing this...
Those who want to get wealthy need to be loud on the internet, put buy buttons on the internet and show up.
And the cool part is, you'll make a difference in people's lives too. Employees, customers, communities.
I believe this to my bones...
So that's what I told my friend.
Just keep going. He'll learn some new stuff at the acquirer and also stay building new products and audiences on the side.
And when he's ready? He'll go full-time on one of those ideas.
Life is long (we hope) and you just gotta keep going.
Sharing oughts and observations from Token2049 in Singapore with some clicks from around the city in between so it doesn't get boring.
The last time I came around was in 2019. The regulatory environment in India was going from bad to worse, and I tried moving here permanently at the time.
It is hard not to draw contrasts between the two trips. Both of them were in the middle of a bear market. Here are how things have changed.
1. There are more VCs than founders in the rooms. This may be because we are in a pro-longed bear market, and conference expenses are high. Most money managers are in the process of raising. Unless the proverbial tap of liquidity opens up at the top (pension funds, traditional allocators), I don't see how money goes towards early-stage organisations.
2. M&A season is nearby. Founders with meaningful IP, process and traction will likely consider capitulating and selling to a larger strategic partner.
Organisations that raised tens of millions last year, with nothing to show for their money, are likely better off hiring a team to acquire firms at pennies on the dollar. This leads me to my next point..
3. The gap between folks who have money - either through selling tokens or raising money- and founders who have product/community could not be wider. A lot of the weird, absurd marketing tactics in 2049, were done by firms with excess capital.
B2B brands marketing as though it is 1980s Japan. Most of these organisations were exchanges desperate for liquidity or a portion of the capital that may leave Binance.
This gap expresses itself differently in terms of the tech itself. There are folks larping about DeFi and NFTs as though it is still 2021 bull market.
There's relatively less of a limelight on people solving hard problems (account abstraction, RWA, Web3 primitives)
4. Founders are feeling the pinch. Some are honest enough to admit it, but many are still on a charade, talking about their competition being toast. I think intellectual honesty has exponential returns at this stage of the market because it helps filter through the BS and get back to work.
One way this expresses itself is through strange KPIs.
X enterprises preferred partner, Y chain's most used dApp and so on - unless firms can't show (i) a metric that compounds or (ii) a mechanism it captures value through - these are dumb games being played to keep morale high.
The longer the bear lasts, the more games we will see to keep morale high, but a different approach would be (sadly) to lay off and be candid about how difficult the industry has gotten to build in. Offer esops for retention so the ones staying back are actually rewarded. (you should be fighting for esops if you are at a early stage startup and not given in this market)
5. Lots of talks about raising series A/B in equity (only), by projects with tokens. I don't know how I feel about this transition because there's no way it doesn't hurt token owners. But I also understand why founders would do it. Their most prominent backers (VCs) want a mechanism to retain value (for their investments) in a vehicle not exposed to token volatility. So they suggest structuring new rounds that are equity only and put in a small sum of money to help put the round together.
It is a murky world - I haven't spent my time thinking about it, but Idk how to admit it serves token holders well. That's an ugly conversation we will see play out in our feeds in the coming months.
6. Seed stage, looks obliterated. It takes literal balls of steel to be wanting to run a bootstrapped firm, at the seed stages right now. Recurring suggestion to most founders is to scrap pursing new tech layers on products without users and focus on one thing that a 1000 people would use.
Your tool with zk,aa,intents,ai and web3 primitives on it would not matter if nobody uses it. And that matters if you are not sure where the next month's rent money is coming from. Sectors with strong community elements (like in crypto) are tricky because founders confuse community for a business model. Like bro, 90% of those folks are free-loaders looking for an airdrop. Step back and re-assess.
7.The talent base has shrunk a ton. Many people have switched to AI (if on risk-on appetite mode) or gone to traditional roles. This has happened in the past too. What's left are either people that are exceptionally smart and see a wedge (folks from AI, making web3 social algorithm products) or ones that are good at taking on risk with hard problems.
There's a mid-tier, which is literally mid. It is as though they came to crypto, and just stuck around because they made money- and don't know what to do next with their life. It is a thin line interacting with them because there's no business to be made/invested into and conversations are pretty boring if you talk about anything other than crypto..
8. It is an investor's market across stages. Nobody is leading, anything. And the ones that can lead, get to dictate terms and the themes they do want to back. The problem is, if somebody has a vintage fund from 2021, odds are quite high that the fund is drawn-down quite a bit, and these investors are unlikely to take risky bets until their next round is closed.
On the flipside, investors that had a vintage from 2019 or new funds - are in an advantageous position to deploy into more sensible firms at paces they are comfortable with.
Ultimately, revenue still seems to be a founder's best source of capital. The ones with revenue, aren't at conferences ironically.
9. Lots of comparisons between Dubai and Singapore - here's what I honestly think of it.
Singapore benefits from its focus on universities and multi-decade lead on investing in talent. It was a hub for startups even before crypto was a thing because of the corp tax. So there's a multi-decade lead on being a city-state that attracts the smartest.
The labour shortage is becoming quite apparent. Services at restaurants are not in par with what you have in Dubai (which relies heavily on workers from SEA). So for the same unit amount of $, you may get a better quality of living in Dubai. But if you are optimising for research - I'm inclined to believe Singapore is better, for now. Just how the city is designed to inspire thought and creativity is not something Dubai can compete against because of its geographical disadvantage.
Dubai (UAE), does have easier immigration and the benefit of not being as small as Singapore. On a multi-decade horizon, I see the gap between the two closing in quite fast. I do think one would supersede the other because it has more resources in terms of capital and labor.
10. The mood was a lot more worse off in 2019. Capitulation was real across the board. I don't think it is as bad in 2023, because the ones that had to be shaken off left after Luna, FTX and 3AC.
The ones that are remaining are in the worst of their moods if they are under pressure to build, scale and monetise. There is the alternative of being a grift that made a ton of money in the last cycle, but they have their own challenges in terms of an identity crisis that comes with a ton of money and a lack of purpose.
Everybody is figuring out what they want to do.
Nobody has a clue. The ones that band together, may survive.
For the moment, all I'd say is - keep an eye for the ones with their knives out. Because there's quite a few.. a longer bear, means people get more desperate and play even dumber games.
Lifehacks:
1. Be cringe. Trying isn’t cringe. Cringe isn’t trying
2. Pick the heart emoji for a warm iMessage; skip the thumbs up
3. Being on someone's IG close friends doesn't mean you are close friends
4. The fastest way to get out of your crappy town is by building an audience
5. Build an email list yesterday
6. Don’t be the last one at a party, you've got a big day tomorrow
7. Come to dinner prepared with stories
8. Start "no-complaints" day, shift perspectives
Listen more than talk
9. Use your favorites on contact screen and call those people 1x+ per week (also, call your mom)
10. Show up to meetings with small gifts (the ROI is insane)
11. Build your own BS detector. Most of what you read is BS
12. Connect tribes is the best way to build a business
13. Don’t be transactional with friends, be giving
14. Keep a learning list, make learning your “side-hustle”
15. Use colored pens, enhance note-taking
16. Create themed playlists, curate moods
17. Listen to happy music often
18. Create your personal "quote collection," stay inspired
19. Don’t forget about day 1 friends. They’ve known you from the start
20. But don’t keep friends around for the sake of it. Friends help other friends grow
21. Craft personal mission statement, guide decisions
22. Throw dinner parties and invite the most interesting people you can find
23. Chasing generational wealth is overrated. Wealth is underrated.
24. Give friends lifts, pick them up from the airport
25. Amplify your weird, celebrate your uniqueness
26. Send friends songs you think they’ll like
27. Pour people’s drinks before yours. People appreciate that.
28. When you’re out with people breaking bread, put your phone on airplane mode
29. Seek discomfort daily, grow exponentially monthly
30. You’re never too late. I started a podcast last year, everyone told me it was too late
31. Avoid prescription drugs, it’s a slippery slope
32. Zig when others zag. The coolest products/communities are built feel different
33. When reading articles or books, take photos of important passages or quotes with your phone for easy reference later. Add to folder. Print it out
34. Send postcards to friends and family when you travel
35. Say I appreciate you, instead of appreciated. It’s appreciated
36. Want to get to know someone better, quickly? Take them to a bunch of places in a really short amount of time. Grab coffee, walk for dessert, go to a really cool museum. Be memorable. Keep them on their toes. 1.5 hour meeting just felt like 3 x 1.5h meetings
37. Listen to pump-up songs before important meetings or events. Get in the zone
38. Tone of voice is the secret key to convincing people. Language is what we say, tone is how we say it. Study the greats and see how they do it. Then mimic them.
39. Have fun
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Ok, final lifehack...
40. Embrace the weekend's magic and savor every moment
Phrase of the day: Anachronistic Sanctimony;
accusing ancient individuals or groups of violating today's ethical norms; more generally flowing values, beliefs, and standards backward in time.
As more and more reports are being published, here is the Part 2 of the VCs/Institutions outlook summaries!
This time, we're taking a look and some bold and interesting thoughts between 3 players in the space!
Part 2 🧵 👇
THE SEARCH FOR CRYPTO CASH FLOWS.
Are there any 'fundamentals' in crypto? Do real cash flows even exist? Is value accrual a meme?
I went on a hunt and found five crypto projects distributing actual cash flows to users: