326 Politics

Political polling analysis and data visualisation. Created by @patrickjfl.

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

Conservative leadership election endorsement leaderboard, coloured by who MPs backed in July.

Rishi Sunak: 38
Boris Johnson: 37
Penny Mordaunt: 15

90 / 357 MPs (25%) have endorsed a candidate so far.

[326 Politics @326Pols]

Hey everyone, I haven’t posted on here in a while, but for the time being some of my forecasting work is over at @patrickjfl, so be sure to give me a follow if you haven’t already!

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

NEW: My first 2022 Conservative leadership election forecast.

I project that Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt will advance to the members' ballot, with a clear gap to Liz Truss in 3rd.

In 2019, my top three forecast was out by just one vote; here's hoping for a similar result!

[326 Politics @326Pols]

Looks like I might have to start creating another political compass of Conservative MPs...

[326 Politics @326Pols]

NEW: Labour now hold their largest poll lead over the Conservatives since the 2019 election.

Poll averages (vs. 11 Nov)
LAB: 37% (+2)
CON: 35% (-2)
LDM: 9% (-)
GRN: 7% (-2)
RFM: 5% (+2)

2024 forecast (vs. 2019)
CON: 40% (-4)
LAB: 35% (+2)
LDM: 8% (-4)
GRN: 6% (+3)
RFM: 4% (+2)

[326 Politics @326Pols]

#NewProfilePic

[326 Politics @326Pols]

@colinelves I should add: the model doesn’t include any specific adjustments for the number of seats individual parties stand in, but treats minor parties as a homogenous bloc in that sense.

[326 Politics @326Pols]

NEW: UK polling averages, now including forecasted next election vote shares.

Current polls (vs. 2019)
CON: 37% (-7)
LAB: 35% (+2)
GRN: 9% (+6)
LDM: 9% (-3)
RFM: 4% (+2)

Forecast
CON: 41% (-4)
LAB: 35% (+2)
GRN: 8% (+5)
LDM: 8% (-4)
RFM: 3% (+1)

[326 Politics @326Pols]

Though the polls are now quite narrow, the Conservatives would still be expected to extend their lead by the next election, based on historical trends.

[326 Politics @326Pols]

As you can see, despite the polling average since 2019 ranging from a 21-point CON lead to a narrow LAB lead, the range of forecasted vote shares for the next election has remained narrow (CON 40–43%, LAB 34–37%).

[326 Politics @326Pols]

Chances of each party being in the next government

GRN: 85%
SPD: 73%
FDP: 62%
CDU: 46%
LNK: 21%
AFD: 0%

[326 Politics @326Pols]

💥 2021 German federal election final forecast 💥

Vote shares (change since 2017)
SPD: 25.3% (+4.8)
CDU: 22.4% (-10.6)
GRN: 15.7% (+6.8)
FDP: 11.6% (+0.8)
AFD: 10.6% (-2.0)
LNK: 6.4% (-2.9)

Next Chancellor
Olaf Scholz: 67%
Armin Laschet: 32%
Annalena Baerbock: 1%

[326 Politics @326Pols]

For these estimates, I tried to find as much info on MPs' endorsements as possible, as some MPs nominated candidates they didn't support to ensure they got on the ballot. I also used YouGov's polling data to estimate vote transfers in the 2015 election.

[326 Politics @326Pols]

With Keir Starmer set to try and change Labour's leadership election rules and revert to a system where party members, unions and MPs all get 1/3 of the vote, I've done some rough calculations to estimate results of the last three leadership elections under this system. (THREAD)

[326 Politics @326Pols]

2020 Labour leadership election

Keir Starmer: 55% (-1)
Rebecca Long-Bailey: 25% (-3)
Lisa Nandy: 20% (+4)

Keir Starmer elected leader.

[326 Politics @326Pols]

Our latest forecast for next Sunday's federal election in Germany makes the SPD the likely largest party, with an SPD/Green/FDP coalition the most likely government.

Vote shares (+/- vs 2017)
SPD: 26% (+5)
CDU: 21% (-12)
GRN: 16% (+7)
FDP: 12% (+1)
AFD: 11% (-2)
LNK: 6% (-3)

[326 Politics @326Pols]

Latest forecast for next month's German federal election

Vote shares (change with 2017)
CDU: 23% (-10)
SPD: 21% (-)
GRN: 18% (+9)
FDP: 13% (+2)
AFD: 11% (-2)
LNK: 7% (-2)