I’m just sitting here staring at the $ONDS chart on my trading desk, thinking out loud...
The other day I said $7.70 was the absolute floor. I did a deep forensic audit of their SEC filings just proved it with cold, hard math.
Retail is getting played, and here is exactly how. 🫳
Let's go full "Mad Max" for a second. Assume Ondas never sells another drone. Ever. Zero future revenue. We toss their $552M in already signed binding contracts into the trash. We value their legacy rail IP at $0.00. We assume their $4.3B global pipeline completely fails.
If we literally just count the massive cash pile they have sitting in the bank ($1.36 BILLION post-Cyberhawk!), add the hardware they just bought, and subtract the debt... their absolute liquidation value is $4.67.
That is the literal bankruptcy price. If the board decided to shut down the company today, unplug the servers, and liquidate the assets, they would hand you back $4.67 per share.
But back in the real world 🌍: If you apply a standard, conservative defense industry multiple (7x on projected sales), add that cash, and factor in the $552M in contracts that are ALREADY SIGNED and going to bill (plus this week's massive Lockheed Martin $LMT integration catalyst)... the actual intrinsic SOTP value jumps to $9.16.
(And if you're terrified of the $20 warrants... don't be. If it hits $20, funds exercising those warrants inject $1.4B in pure cash into the balance sheet. The fully diluted value actually stabilizes at $9.43. Accretive dilution is a beautiful thing).
And where are we trading right now? At $7.68.
Here is why that disconnect exists: Short-term swing traders are way too lazy to read a 130-page 10-Q filing. They look at a complex balance sheet with earn-outs, get a headache, see a red chart, and sell in panic.
But the hedge funds and algorithmic prop desks? They know exactly where that $4.67 liquidation floor is.
Look at the chart.
See those massive volume bars in May?
That’s accumulation. Whales loading the boat. Now look at the bleed-out in June. The price drifts down from $14 to $7.70, but the volume is virtually invisible.
To the untrained eye, that looks like a downtrend. To a prop desk, that is a "Liquidity Vacuum." When the big buyers fill their bags, they simply step away. With the bids gone, a tiny retail market-sell order drops the price 10 cents instantly because there’s no immediate buyer just below it. The stock falls under its own weight on microscopic volume to shake out the weak hands.
It’s not distribution; it’s a controlled bleed.
They were just sitting on their hands, defending the $7.70 equilibrium, waiting for the macro environment to give the green light (thanks, Micron $MU, for confirming the AI/Automation CapEx supercycle is still a runaway train 🚂).
Buying here isn't guessing. It’s a pure arbitrage play: weaponizing retail paranoia against a grossly overcapitalized balance sheet. You are buying a hyper-growth defense contractor for the price of a distressed asset.
Ondas’s @Sentrycs is collaborating with @LockheedMartin to bring Cyber-over-RF counter-drone technology into the Sanctum C-UAS platform, supporting layered defense against evolving aerial threats. Its protocol-level approach lets operators detect, track, and safely control unauthorized drones without jamming, helping limit disruption to surrounding communications and infrastructure. $ONDS
https://t.co/LsPwPr75YG
The FBI says it uncovered and disrupted an alleged multi-state plot involving explosive drones targeting a UFC event in Washington, D.C. and possibly the White House.
Authorities arrested multiple suspects before any attack occurred, and the investigation is ongoing.
The FBI disrupted an alleged plot targeting the White House UFC event, officials say.
Two sources told CBS News that the alleged plot involved using explosive-laden drones and snipers to attack the crowd, followed by a "second wave" involving an attempt to storm the White House gate. https://t.co/Is6iiYUkmP
Ondas is launching LADOS, a Layered Autonomous Defense Operational C2 Layer that connects sensors, platforms, effectors, and C2 into one unified operational core.
LADOS is part of Ondas’ multi-domain architecture with SkyWeaver, a Palantir-powered AI layer for multi-domain mission autonomy and long-range ISR, and will be introduced at Eurosatory 2026 in Paris. $ONDS
https://t.co/99HflVXtfJ
Ondas secured over $30M in May orders, bringing Q2-to-date orders above $110M across its defense, security and autonomous technology platform.
Orders span Air Defense and C-UAS, loitering munition and one-way attack systems, ISR, UGVs and robotic defense systems, supporting a growing backlog and continued execution of the Company’s strategic growth plan. $ONDS
https://t.co/ileUNnF2Y6
Technology Readiness Experimentation (T-REX) 26-2 🦖has concluded.
Executed in partnership with Rapid Assessment of Prototype Technology Readiness (RAPTR) Task Force and the @NationalGuardIN, T-REX puts defense innovators to the test. Industry partners are given the chance to iterate fast, push their systems through real-world stress and receive hard data on whether their technology works and is ready to scale.
Over 60 innovative technologies were evaluated at T-REX 26-2, which brought together more than 900 personnel, including representatives from 15 allied nations.
T-REX delivers ground truth assessments backed by warfighter feedback, guiding critical decisions to strengthen America’s LETHAL ARSENAL OF FREEDOM.
This is smart Industrial policy. Supporting the drone economy is critical for US national security and economic prosperity. 🇺🇸
The tide is rising for the Drone Economy. Leaders are emerging and being rewarded.
Of course @OndasHoldings is proud to support and partner with @PDW_ai and @UnusualMachines and their important work as we drive maturation and delivery of these critical technologies. 👊🏼
182 robots. 5 layers. Zero margin for error.
This is Stage 3: Layer Assembly.
Every module assembled with machine-level precision to withstand decades of real-world performance.
This is what American solar manufacturing looks like.
Ondas reported record Q1 2026 results with $50.1 million in revenue, raised its 2026 revenue target to at least $390 million, and expanded pro forma backlog to $457 million.
The quarter reflected accelerating demand across counter-UAS, ISR, and autonomous systems markets while advancing Ondas’ global operating platform and AI-enabled multi-domain ISR strategy. $ONDS
https://t.co/q635nUZDdF
Ondas completed its merger with Mistral which increases Ondas backlog to $457 million while establishing direct access to U.S. defense contract vehicles, including U.S. Army and Special Operations programs.
The merger also introduces a dedicated program capture capability to support long-term growth across defense and homeland security markets while enabling scaled deployment of autonomous systems. $ONDS
https://t.co/CkoIOBkDAq
Ondas receives initial ~$68M order under $140M military engineering program through subsidiary INDO Earth, marking first phase of multi-year deployment with additional long-term revenue potential. $ONDS
https://t.co/HNigelKeBZ
$ONDS BREAKING: MASSACHUSETTS STATE POLICE TAPS SENTRYCS TO SECURE THE AIRSPACE AROUND GILLETTE STADIUM FOR FIFA WORLD CUP 2026 🔥🔥🔥
HUGE FIND BY @BMSInvests!!!
$ONDS
🚨 Kansas City Police Department’s procurement of Ondas’ Sentrycs CUAS solution being approved at the Board of Commissioners Meeting in Feb 2026😎
We’re going to the World Cup👊🏻
Credit: @shittinpennies