97% probability $SPY crashes at least 10% after June 15.
There's 4 massive reasons $SPY can't avoid it:
1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off.
Major IPOs drain liquidity. The 1999–2000 dot-com IPO wave pulled $100B+ from markets before $SPY crashed 78%.
2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17
Hawkish Fed surprises trigger immediate selloffs. In June 2022, a surprise 75bps hike sent SPY down 8.4% in 5 days.
3. $MU $ORCL earnings is the peak of market
Semis and enterprise software peak earnings historically signal cycle tops. $MU peaked in June 2018 $SPY followed with a 20% correction by December.
4. Midterm elections for Trump is this year
Midterm years average a 17% $SPY drawdown before Q4 recovery. 2022 saw $SPY drop 25% into October before reversing Trump's 2026 midterms follow the same cycle.
♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll share with you my $SPY target for the crash.
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