S

请耐心等待广播事件的发生❤️

[S @42069_abc]

这个世界就是由一个接着一个的故事构成，你不必考虑故事的真实与否，你只需要考虑故事是否被大众接受并且大众是否乐于分享它。

[S @42069_abc]

@xtony1314 你不会故意撸网贷逾期吗？把找你的亲戚号码保存到通讯录，找个网贷逾期一下，就没人会找你了

[逍遥XTony @xtony1314]

人只有在即将死亡的时候才能够明白这一切，人生其实就是一场骗局，最主要的任务根本不是买房买车，也不是及时行乐。

这其实是欲望，不是真相。

人生呢，就是一个梦，虚无缥缈并不真实，

在这个世界上活着的我们和一只蚂蚁，一只昆虫，一只蚊子，一只甲壳虫，没有任何区别。

当你走到了生命的尾声，蓦然回首就会明白，我们追求的一切都恍若云烟，功名利禄终将变为尘土，恩怨情仇也终将随风飘散。

我们在这个世间最真实的需要不过是内心的感受而已，我们最根本的任务不是买房买车，不是让别人羡慕，也不是过得一定要比别人好，而是可以按照自己喜欢的方式度过一生。

[DeepSeek @deepseek_ai]

🚀 DeepSeek-V4 Preview is officially live & open-sourced! Welcome to the era of cost-effective 1M context length.

🔹 DeepSeek-V4-Pro: 1.6T total / 49B active params. Performance rivaling the world's top closed-source models.
🔹 DeepSeek-V4-Flash: 284B total / 13B active params. Your fast, efficient, and economical choice.

Try it now at https://t.co/GCdiMzk1Dl via Expert Mode / Instant Mode. API is updated & available today!

📄 Tech Report: https://t.co/drlDrxkYtp
🤗 Open Weights: https://t.co/T13Y8i7SDM

1/n

[OpenCode @opencode]

MiMo-V2-Pro and MiMo-V2-Omni are now free in OpenCode

many of you have tried them in stealth - Hunter Alpha and Healer Alpha. Mystery solved

worth mentioning - MiMo-V2-Pro:
- ~1T params
- 1M context
- optimized for coding

[PsyopAnime @PsyopAnime]

LAST TIME ON DRAGONBALL Z

[林晚晚的猫 @linwanwan823]

预测市场不只是预测，而是「合法内幕交易市场」。

前段时间跟律动老板线下喝咖啡。前一天我熬了大夜，见他时候还不太清醒。

探讨到预测市场，他提出三个认知，让我醍醐灌顶的清醒。

原文里写的更透彻，推荐你们去搜来看。

在这里我提炼三点分享给大家：

1.预测市场的本质转变：从"预测未来"变成"泄露已知秘密"。

传统逻辑，我们下注是因为不知道结果，这本质还是赌，是投机。

但如果结果已经确定，但尚未公开时，那么资金的流向本身就是泄密。

2.价格就是情报

不需要爆料、匿名信或任何文字，异常的重仓、特定地址的持续下注、历史命中率异常高的账户，这些链上行为就是"无声的泄密"。

3.现实扭曲力场

预测市场不仅反映现实，还能改变现实。

Brian Armstrong财报会上那个经典案例，他刻意说出Polymarket上被押注的词汇，证明投注本身就有能力扭曲结果。

所以预测市场的本质，不是预测未来，而是泄露那些"已经被少数人知道的结果"。

我觉得他这几个观点，不管从交易、产品、趋势，都可以反复品。

按照这个思路，律动做了预测市场新闻推送tg，跟踪地址的大额变化，可以作为内幕交易的参考。

感兴趣的可以加入体验一下 https://t.co/i7APyUMczC

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

世界上居然有人和我盈亏曲线如此的相似，可交易风格完全相反！我这是找到了失散多年的bro吗？

@coolish 把我们的实盘图放在一起做对比，能看到赚钱阶段几乎一模一样。

可问题来了，已知普通人高频交易必输情况下，那：

> 他一周能交易10+次
> 我一个季度都开不了几单
> 那为什么曲线还能几乎同步？

我用我小时候最爱玩的英雄联盟来比喻：

> 我像那种擅长草丛潜伏，等待时机，放大招一击毙命，然后再次脱离战场，等待下一次机会。

> 他更像那种喜欢在战场的中心，和对面来回试探，找对面的失误，然后开团放大招。

⚠️重点来了
不管什么战斗风格，我们都是打的一波关键团直接获得胜利，所以曲线当然长得像。

而绝大部分散户的问题就在这里：

> 很多人理解的“高频”不是补刀
> 而是整天接一些没意义的团战
> 明明不是接团的时间偏要强行开团
> 然而真正能获得胜利的关键团只有一两波
> 如果你每一拳都当重仓打，当然会被市场收尸

他那种“高频”
其实是：补兵 刷野 试仓 微操作
真正开出大招打的关键团，打团频率跟我差不多低频。

⚠️可普通人根本无法控制这个尺度，像Paul这样的（天才）交易员万里挑一，有的散户不学不会不练，光看着Paul刀尖跳舞很帅，大量高频日内交易玩家，并不是天赋不够，而是没找到合适的时机，白白浪费机会了。

所以你要么把Paul吃懂吃透，要么减少频率去等待那个正确时机。

感谢Paul给了一个很好补充视角，真希望未来更多真正会交易的人出来分享。

本来市场上真玩家就不多，能发声的更是稀有物种，好好珍惜吧。

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

If you wanna stop losing money in crypto, the first thing you should do is STOP day trading.

Because RETAIL day trading is structurally a SCAM.

This is a long post but if you just give me 120 seconds of your time, I swear you'll thank me in a few years.

I’ve been trading since I was a teenager.

I’ve had wins that made me feel I’m Batman and losses that genuinely broke pieces of me I’m still putting back together.

I tried EVERY STRATEGY myself as retail could ever find.

I even day traded for a year thinking it would finally save me, and I failed so painfully it still stings every time I remember it.

> My PNL was so shit to the point that my grandma, who I HELPED set up an AUTO BUY on BTC for, made more money than me.

> Then I became a low-frequency swing trader who barely touches positions, who GETS THE F OUT and STOPS TRADING for a while after a winning move.

> ONLY THEN did my life get better and everything finally start to click.

I’m not a saint. I’m writing this to save the younger, dumb, naive, and painfully impulsive version of me.

First, as a RETAIL DAY TRADER, you’re trading high-frequency with zero real information advantage (no real order flow, no true liquidity map, no market maker positioning, no execution advantage, nothing).

> Do it a few times each quarter, you survive.
> Do it 10+ times a week?
> Even if you have the strongest “discipline” and “risk management” skills in the world, the math will still burry you alive.

Retails don’t fail because they (we) never win.
We fail because we NEVER STOP, and high frequency only has one final outcome.

RUIN.

> This is literally why I built a punishment system for myself if I exceed my quarterly trade limit.

> Every major loss I’ve ever taken happened after a big win where I kept going instead of stopping.

> And every major win I’ve ever taken (and actually kept the money for a long time) was because I caught a big move and then CHILLED.

> Pattern is so obvious it hurts.

Winning is NOT you suddenly made big money.
Winning is keeping that money and not fking losing it next year.

> I’m seeing 14 year olds on TikTok calling themselves day traders, drawing lines on TradingView, thinking they unlocked some daily executable system after buying a guru’s course or Discord.

> It sickens me because if they knew it was gambling I wouldn’t care. At least they’re aware of the game.

> But this day trading meta is bigger than the dropshipping wave in 2016 and 2017. And we all know how that ended.

> People underestimate the difficulty of trading and massively overestimate their ability.

> The issue isn’t just the math. Yes the more you trade and the less you stop the harder consistent profitability becomes.

> But the real problem is younger retail traders GENUINELY believe that with “discipline” and “risk management” they are not gambling at all. They think day trading is a "skill" you can execute like a daily routine.

This isn’t just crypto day trading. The same logic applies to US equities and basically every market.

High frequency only works inside institutions.

> Take US equities for example.
> Do you know what institution traders don’t even look at? Candlestick charts and TradingView.
> They’re on Bloomberg terminals with data retail will never see.

Well, you of course knows this. BUT the 14 to 18 year olds don’t know that. They think their indicators are what all traders use.

And that’s the real danger.
> If you know you’re gambling, at least a part of you knows when to walk away.
> But once you believe it’s a “system”, you never stop.
> You keep clicking until the market empties you completely.

It really is just like a casino in disguise.

> When you walk into Vegas or Macau, you know EXACTLY what you’re stepping into.

> You see the lights, the tables, the dealers, the noise. Your brain knows this is gambling.

> But day trading today is a casino disguised as a COFFEE SHOP.

> New traders walk in thinking they’re here to “learn a skill”, not realizing they just sat down at a table designed to drain them slowly.

So they don’t stop.
That’s the whole tragedy.
Not the losing.

The fact that they genuinely believe they’re not gambling, which makes them keep going until there’s nothing left to lose.

> And those retail traders (like me) you see who look like they’re “winning”… honestly most of them just caught a big move.

> They had luck at the right moment, plus enough discipline beaten into them by previous losses that they finally learned how to stop after a win.

And even then, this tiny group is less than one percent of all retail.

It’s not hard to make money in trading.
It’s just unbelievably hard to keep it.

[小手川峰｜Feng 🐝 @memeking_888]

很佩服你有把这些说出来的勇气，真的太有感触了，我从13年开始搞投资归零过3次，其中你的经历我也经历过2次了（都是赚了几千万然后归零+负债+网贷+房子抵押，银行贷款到期都不想续给我了，还要来家里看、拍照，我当时觉得很羞辱，心里想着我可是17年就赚了4000多万的人，沦落如此，也只能接受），以前真的觉得说出来太丢人，也不想被人嘲笑，加上回忆起来太痛苦了，就更难以启齿，即便后来上岸了，跟朋友、群友提起也都寥寥几句带过（昨天还在群里和大家聊一些记忆片段，也是避重就轻的尽量聊一些美好的部分），我觉得就是自己太要面子了，不能直面自己过去的失败，看你写的这些我也更加释然了，一个真正强大的交易员需要直面自己曾经的失败。太多人只愿意炫耀战绩了，而鲜有人勇于提及失败，尤其是自己惨败的时刻 和 最不堪的时期。

我第一次赚到大钱的时候（我认为自己一辈子，我身边朋友、同学一辈子也赚不到的钱），就想着 自己命好，天命所归 要么想着 自己是个天才，然后 亏光后，会反思 自己其实就是靠运气赚的钱而已 ，仅此而已，自己也不过是 普通人 之前运气好点而已。 然后承受身边 各种人的 “安慰”，但我就觉得刺耳，比如说：“我要是你，早拿出来享受生活了，还搞个毛” 、“你咋这么贪呢” 、“我是没机会赚到，我要赚到了肯定就落袋了” 等等诸如此类的言论，我心里想“你们连牌都没摸过呢，至少我还赢过、辉煌过”，还会想：“你们有这种想法，就注定你们赚不到那么多钱”

然后第二次翻身（靠raca、bnx、shib），又赚回了3千万多万，我心里想的是：“第一次是运气，这次是我的实力了吧” ，“这次我终于稳了吧”、“我可以称得上投资高手了吧”，又骄傲了，然后 结局是又亏光，并且负债，大致经过就是 经历熊市又是巨大回撤，然后上杠杆急于回本，又是大败亏输。

第三次翻身直到现在，我才更珍惜现在的生活，也更珍惜钱，更珍惜机会，更认清自己（没有天命，也不是天才），认为投资是需要更多耐心的，是长期的修炼，也能更平静对待投资，也不急于证明自己了，也不会激进投资，不碰任何形式杠杆，我也不会再弄任何形式的借贷，转而更在意的是 自己是否能不断调整、优化交易策略，努力让自己在市场上有持续性更强的交易方式，哪怕慢点也能接受，保持耐心，向更多的强者学习，追求踏踏实实的进步，善待曾经每一个不理解我、看不起我或者不看好我的人，没有他们，我也不会有绝地反击的动力。就像当年我的初中班主任坚决不要我，让我退学，我妈、我和老师三个人在走廊，我妈要给老师钱，我说妈你别给她，我不念了，后来转学了。但是多年后我在高中努力学习考到了班级前三，也考上了好大学，有一次街上偶遇到这位班主任，她向我道歉，说当年对我的教育方式不对，我说："您没错，是我当年不懂事太贪玩了，上高中我开始认真学习了,不然没出路。" （后来也是靠关系和花钱上了高中，高中入学要求是580分，我中考考了375），其实我内心的想法是 如果没有你当初那么言之凿凿的说 “我不是学习的那块料，不如尽早找个技工校什么的上几年早点上班得了”，我高中也不会比别人付出更多努力去学习，还要把初中的课本再拿出来再重新学，因为初中基本就没咋学，但也熬出来了，我从入学成绩班级倒数第二，追到了稳定在班级正数前三，我是想改命，但更咽不下当年被那位老师否定的那口气和我妈在走廊求她留我的那个场景我也难以忘记，自己必须要争口气。

最后祝福巴黎哥早日翻身吧，可能多数人理解不了你，但我真能，只有经历过才能切身体会到这种痛和现实的难，你比我当年更有勇气。

[S @42069_abc]

@liangxihuigui 你个叼毛，只要遇到极端行情就在印钞

[链研社｜AI First🔶💧 @lianyanshe]

找到了完整版，是一个网剧《以太坊》的先导片。大家看个乐呵把

凉席哥、红空岛、杀破郎、热鸨、孙割、薛蛮了、何姨、中本葱、索拉娜都被编进了剧本里，暑期上映，每周一集。

[S @42069_abc]

🦖的自我预言进行中
$yee

[S @42069_abc]

🦖 vs 🐸

[S @42069_abc]

🦒

[Monald Lrump @MonaldLrump]

What if Ethereum had a story?

Not just a whitepaper. Not just a chart.
But a mythology.

With @nfinityAI, we’re building that.

The first trailer in our ETH Mini-Series is live:
@Bookof_Eth

We collaborated with NFINITY to bring the story of @ethereum to life, we’re sponsoring this vision to make Ethereum feel again.

To give it character. A soul. A legend.

The Book of Ethereum is the first companion on this journey, can you guess who’s next?

[Monald Lrump @MonaldLrump]

What if Ethereum had a story?

Not just a whitepaper. Not just a chart.
But a mythology.

With @nfinityAI, we’re building that.

The first trailer in our ETH Mini-Series is live:
@Bookof_Eth

We collaborated with NFINITY to bring the story of @ethereum to life, we’re sponsoring this vision to make Ethereum feel again.

To give it character. A soul. A legend.

The Book of Ethereum is the first companion on this journey, can you guess who’s next?

[S @42069_abc]

@liangxihuigui 你直接把这家店买了得了

[S @42069_abc]

@liangxihuigui 下次玩偶就这么拍，绝对大卖

[S @42069_abc]

@liangxihuigui 神人

[S @42069_abc]

@liangxihuigui 你个吊毛，他是不是看你翻身了才来和你和好的？

[S @42069_abc]

@liangxihuigui 你养的布偶猫，v神养的河马，你们都有美好的未来。
https://t.co/gBe93ZtUIy

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

@KhaokheowZoo Thanks for the warm welcome to the family and your work for wild animals!

I'm happy to be adoptive father to Moo Deng as she grows up over the next 2y and support her with my 10M THB donation, maybe more as I set aside 88 ETH for🦛+ frens. May they live long and prosper🖖🏻