okay I'm kinda scared from this @Polymarket account
he made $1.5M in realized profits, in just 9 days. All World Cup bets, 100% WIN RATE
he made such weird bets, including the Germany loss of yesterday ($767k in profits)
the next prediction he's accumulating is:
"Argentina vs Cabo Verde" - Argentina NO at 15¢
at this point I won't be surprised to see a draw or win from Cabo Verde in 3 days
insider???
Had a Jane Street interview in 2013 that still bothers me.
It was my 6th round. Final interview. The guy walks in carrying no laptop, no notebook, just a cold brew and what I later realized was a single IKEA tea candle.
He writes on the whiteboard:
food: $200
rent: $800
utilities: $150
candles: $3,600
family: dying
Then he turns around and says, “Optimize.”
I laughed because I thought it was a culture-fit bit. He did not laugh.
So I said, “Well, obviously you spend less on candles.”
He says, “Assume candles are non-discretionary.”
Okay.
I start building a model. Basic constraint satisfaction. Family survival as a soft penalty. Candles as a state variable. Maybe there’s an arbitrage where you buy wholesale paraffin and convert the $3,600 line item into inventory.
He stops me.
“You’re thinking like a consultant.”
That’s when I knew I was in trouble.
He says, “Give me a bid-ask on family dying.”
I say, “What?”
He says, “You’re long candles, short family. Where do you make markets?”
I try to recover. I say the real issue is liquidity: rent and utilities are fixed, food is elastic, candles are emotionally inelastic. Therefore the optimal strategy is to securitize future candle enjoyment and borrow against it.
He nods for the first time.
Then he asks, “What time do you sell the candles?”
I say, “Whenever the market is liquid?”
He says, “Be more specific.”
I say, “Uh… 10 a.m. Eastern?”
For the first time, he smiles.
He goes, “Every day?”
I say, “Every day.”
He says, “In size?”
I say, “In size.”
He says, “And what do we call that?”
I say, “Market manipulation?”
The room gets very quiet.
He looks disappointed and writes something down.
“No. We call it providing liquidity to candle ETFs during the U.S. cash open.”
I try to save it. “Right. Of course. The family isn’t dying because we underfunded them. They’re just experiencing temporary price discovery.”
He nods again.
Then he points back at the board.
I had missed it. The utility bill was $150, but candles provide light. You can zero out utilities.
I update the budget:
food: $200
rent: $800
utilities: $0
candles: $3,750
family: still dying, but now in a more capital-efficient way
He says, “How confident are you?”
I say, “0.95.”
He smiles and circles candles.
“0.95 huh?”
Then he asks me to estimate how many leveraged longs get liquidated if we dump $3,750 of candles at 10:00:01 every morning for 90 consecutive trading days.
Needless to say I did not get the offer.
The Police once raided a warehouse and found 3,800 PlayStations running FIFA
Ukraine's security service raided a warehouse in Vinnytsia expecting to find a crypto mining farm
Instead they found PS4 consoles stacked on racks from floor to ceiling
Every single one was running FIFA 21 on autopilot, farming Ultimate Team coins 24 hours a day to sell on the black market
The operation was stealing $259,000 a month in electricity and causing power blackouts across the entire city
The consoles alone were worth $1.5 million
EA makes $1.6 billion a year from Ultimate Team
The FIFA coin black market is worth over $200 million a year
At black market rates, 3,800 consoles farming coins 24/7 could pull in $3 to $5 million a year
Around the same time an actual EA employee got caught selling rare Ultimate Team cards for $1,000 each on the side
Even the people who made the game were running the same hustle
So Daniel Radcliffe aka Harry Potter instead of spending his money, actually invested his money
And now he makes $660,000/mo just from investment returns (probably ETFs)
Essentially a perfect FIRE (financial independence retire early) story
Great work 10/10 👏
Every time oil prices surged 50%+ above trend, a recession followed.
Every. Single. Time.
We just crossed that threshold again.
This isn't a prediction. It's history rhyming.
🇮🇷 Iran is now considering a wild move: only letting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if the cargo is paid in Chinese yuan ditching the US dollar for most trades.
This would be a massive shift as ~80% of global oil is priced & traded in USD.
If Iran pulls it off, it’s a direct middle finger to the petrodollar system.
If Iran starts demanding yuan for passage through the world’s most critical oil choke point, that’s not just economic warfare, that’s trying to rewrite global finance mid-war.
Source: @sentdefender