CraigFish

10+ years trading experience Stocks|Options. Bull 》Bear

STEP 1-find your edge. STEP 2-refine your process. STEP 3-manage your emotions.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC has officially declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels in response to the US violation of the Memorandum of Understanding first clause and Israel's continuous violations of the Lebanon ceasefire, per Tasnim.

Iran says this is the "first step" and warns further steps will follow if the breach continues.

[iain @ohiain]

I'll probably lose followers, but I've never seen anyone on X talk about this concept... so let me be the first.

1 of the most unexpected things trading has taught me is that my biggest enemy was never the market.

It was ME.

For the first 2+ years, I thought my problems were technical. I thought if I could just find the right scanner, the right setup, the right indicator, or the right mentor, everything would click. But over time, I started noticing something uncomfortable... the moments that hurt me the most weren't happening because I lacked knowledge. They happened because I wasn't doing what I already knew I should be doing.

- I knew where my stop belonged, but I moved it.
- I knew I should wait for my setup, but I got impatient.
- I knew I should sit cash, but I felt like I needed action.
- I knew I shouldn't revenge trade, but I wanted my money back.

The market has a funny way of exposing what's already INSIDE OF YOU.

If you're impatient, it'll expose your impatience. If you're prideful, it'll expose your pride. If you're fearful, it'll expose your fear. Trading doesn't create those things... but reveals them. And the more time I've spent in this business, the more I've realized that many of the struggles traders face aren't actually trading problems at all.

They're HEART problems.

That's a realization that completely changed the way I view this business.

As a Christian, I believe there's a constant battle taking place inside all of us. There are things we know we should do, yet we find ourselves wanting to do the exact opposite. The crazy part is that most traders already know what they should be doing. They know they shouldn't overtrade or chase stocks into oblivion. They know they shouldn't average down on losers, and they definitely know to wait for their A+ setups.

Yet we do it anyway.

BUT WHY THO?

Because knowing and doing are 2 completely different things.

And I think that's why I've become so convinced that trading is one of the greatest self-development journeys a person can go on. The market doesn't care what you say you believe. It doesn't care what books you've read or how many years you've traded. Every single day it asks 1 simple question:

"Can you execute what you already know is right?"

That's relatively it.

And if I'm being completely transparent, some of my biggest breakthroughs didn't come from studying charts. They came from spending time in prayer, reading Scripture, slowing down, and taking an honest look at myself. The more I grow in patience, self-control, discipline, and contentment outside of trading, the more those same qualities naturally show up inside of trading.

I've found that when I'm walking closely with God, I'm less emotional. I don't feel the need to force opportunities. I don't need to make money today or tomorrow. I don't need every trade to work... I can simply wait.

And waiting is a SUPERPOWER in this industry.

The irony is that the market constantly rewards qualities that our flesh HATES. It rewards patience when we want action, and rewards discipline when we want excitement. It rewards humility when we want to be right, and it rewards self-control when we want immediate gratification.

Maybe that's why so many people struggle.

Not because they don't know enough.

But because becoming consistently profitable requires becoming a different person than the one who first entered the market.

So if you're reading this, I'd encourage you to ask yourself a question that has challenged me deeply.

What do I already know I should be doing... but keep refusing to do?

Because I have a feeling the answer to that question is probably worth more than the next setup, scanner, or strategy you'll learn about.

Trading has taught me a lot about stocks over the last 5+ years. But far more importantly, it's taught me about MYSELF.

And for that, I'll always be grateful.

I'm now done with my yapp session, so enjoy the rest of your day!

God bless.

[CraigFish @5protrading]

@Jhswings27 🤣🤣

[CraigFish @5protrading]

@NickDrendel LMAO 😅😅

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

JUST IN: Trump says Strait of Hormuz will be toll free when it reopens

[CraigFish @5protrading]

@MikeNellis Even if it was tax dollars, I'd say it was worth it and I can think of a thousand other worse ways our tax dollars have been spent

[Tanner @TannersTrades]

Is there a correlation between high IPO volume and the market topping?

If we look back through history, IPO volume generally surges near market highs, most often driven by high liquidity as speculation and "froth" crescendos.

- .Com saw 280-470 IPOs
- 1969 boom pre recession saw 300-500 IPOs
- Covid saw an all time high of 1035 IPOs

In all 3 examples, the above average IPO volume lasted 3 years. If we overlap this concept on the current market, 2025 would be the first year that eclipses the low range of historical examples, marking "year 1" of potentially a 3 year IPO cycle.

This year the big ones are expected, like SpaceX, Anduril, and OpenAI, which are understandably expected to be the top for the market, but what if that's not the case?

In my opinion, huge IPOs do generally signify the top, however I have to respect the data and recognize once again that the irrationality of this market can continue longer than our predispositions convince us they can.

One more side note for new market participants:

even genuinely great companies can become terrible investments if bought at extreme valuations.

[CraigFish @5protrading]

@cb_doge Good for him, he deserves it

[Insider Paper @TheInsiderPaper]

BREAKING 🚨 IRAN-US PEACE DEAL

- Mediator Pakistan announces ceasefire in Mideast conflict, including Lebanon

- Mediator Pakistan announces US-Iran deal has been reached

- US and Iran to sign peace deal in Switzerland on June 19: Pakistan

- Trump says deal with Iran is 'now complete'

- Trump says Hormuz open and US blockade lifted, 'let the oil flow'

- Vance says plans to attend Iran signing in Geneva, 'possible' Trump could

- Iran says it has achieved 'great victories' in war with US

- Iran says agreement with US immediately ends the war

- Iran says will hold talks within two months with US on 'final agreement' to settle war

- Trump says Iran deal will bring 'peace' to whole Middle East

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

@NickSchmidt $CSCO $QCOM were both down 50%+ by the summer of 2000 and their earnings report and executive commentary was still extremely rosy.

[Nick Schmidt @NickSchmidt]

Everyone holds too long because when it’s actually time to get out the fundamentals usually still look great.

Company still growing, future looks bright and you’re sitting there like why would I sell this?

[Palmer Luckey @PalmerLuckey]

@Miraculous44_ @toly They are coming for your ownership.
https://t.co/tyfgypPPPE

[Bruno Souza @brunosouzasc]

Elon Musk criou, em um único dia, 4.400 novos milionários.

Quase 400 deles ultrapassaram os US$ 100 milhões.

Não são banqueiros nem investidores de risco. São funcionários da SpaceX: soldadores, técnicos, mecânicos e até funcionários da cantina. Durante vinte anos, a empresa pagou gente de todos os níveis com ações, não só com salário alto. Quem produziu colheu.

Juan Hernandez, imigrante mexicano, aceitou um emprego de soldador por US$ 28 a hora em 2015, sem nem saber direito o que era a SpaceX. Recebeu uma pequena participação de US$ 10 mil e pôde comprar mais por desconto em folha. Hoje sua fatia vale US$ 880 mil.

Trevor Hise ignorou os conselhos dos pais para pegar um emprego “seguro” na General Electric. Escolheu a SpaceX, ficou 12 anos e acumulou mais de 100 mil ações. Ao preço da listagem, são US$ 13,5 milhões. Aos 37 anos, ele já pode se aposentar. Palavras dele: “A magnitude disso é ridícula.”

O detalhe mais eloquente veio antes mesmo da abertura de capital: mais de 100 funcionários se uniram discretamente para contratar uma gestora de fortunas capaz de cuidar de até US$ 5 bilhões. Muitos nunca tinham precisado de wealth manager na vida.

Há décadas os IPOs de empresas de tecnologia enriquecem programadores. Desta vez, o dinheiro chegou ao chão de fábrica. Isso é capitalismo de verdade: quem arrisca, quem trabalha e quem entrega valor colhe frutos proporcionais.

A esquerda odeia esse tipo de história. Porque ela prova que a verdadeira ascensão social não vem de dividir a miséria alheia, mas de criar riqueza que eleva quem tem coragem de construir.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IRAN SAYS US STRIKES RENDER CEASEFIRE MEANINGLESS

Iran said US strikes into Thursday were more intense and widespread, with Tehran offering limited damage details while claiming retaliatory attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. It marks the third escalation this week involving Iran, Israel, and the US across regional bases. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the US actions have made the ceasefire “meaningless,” though it did not formally announce its withdrawal from the agreement.

[Nick Schmidt @NickSchmidt]

I learned to step away because there’s no other option. It is impossible to watch the market all day & not place a trade. Just like social media is designed to keep u scrolling, the market is designed to keep u clicking buttons.

I know myself and over the years I’ve tried to be disciplined in other ways but the only way I can actually stop overtrading is physically removing myself from watching the market while it’s open.

Everybody is afraid to step away because they might miss an opportunity and you can’t operate from that mindset.

That’s why yesterday I said most of being a good trader is just identifying when the market environment shifts. I’m still bullish, but after the day we had last Friday, there was no chance our friendly low volatility market was coming back without some time.

I think it will be back sooner than we think though and when that easy market is back I want to be thinking clearly and not digging myself out of a hole.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Investors dumped $10.8 Billion worth of Tech Stocks last week, the largest outflow ever recorded 🚨🚨🚨

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC announces it struck dozens of US military targets across five bases overnight in two large ballistic missile and drone waves.

In Jordan, Iran hit and destroyed F-35, F-15, and F-16 hangars at the Al-Azraq Air Base with 12 ballistic missiles.

In Bahrain, several P-8A Poseidon aircraft at Sheikh Isa Air Base and Patriot radar defense systems at the US 5th Fleet HQ were hit with drones. Iran also struck US installations at the Ali Al-Salem and Ahmad Al-Jaber bases in Kuwait, for a combined total of 18 US targets hit in the Kuwait-Bahrain wave.

[Insider Paper @TheInsiderPaper]

Taiwan said Chinese ships entered the "prohibited" waters off a disputed island in the South China Sea for the first time on Thursday, condemning escalating "harassment" by Beijing.

https://t.co/X07eygwnCI

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has now dropped to "complete zero" after the IRGC Navy announced a full shutdown of the Strait following US strikes. Satellite imagery confirms not a single ship passing, per Tasnim.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Retail Traders are apparently trying to borrow money to chase the SpaceX $SPCX IPO 🚨🚨 Dear God