Okay. I’ll take the bait.
I went to work for Peter in 2013 with opposite politics.
He sat me down right at the beginning.
PETER: “I don’t want the (Thiel) Foundation to do good that the market can do. That is the job of the market. Likewise, I don’t want to do the good work that is seen as good. That work can be done by people richer, weaker and more needy of approval than we are. I want us to do only the work that is *deeply* good but somehow confused for being evil, because that is the work of the courageous and the strong. We strive to be both and that is where a small foundation can make the greatest positive difference. Go look for such good and let’s do that. But remember. Good has TWO different antonyms. What is “bad work”? It could be seen as shoddy work. Or it could be seen as evil work. And we can’t do shoddy work. Why? Because evil that isn’t competent never gets to be evil. It’s just pathetic. So we have to be exceptionally competent at the good work which we do to make sure it is always confused for evil.”
I thought it totally logical. So that’s the argument. And that’s classic Peter.
This is an old idea of his. And now you know.
Average annual inflation, all years in office, highest to lowest:
Carter - 9.9%
Ford - 8.0%
Nixon - 5.7%
Biden - about 5.0%
Reagan - 4.6%
George H.W. Bush - 4.3%
George W. Bush - 2.8%
Clinton - 2.6%
Trump - about 2.2% (both terms combined)
The only businesses left to build:
1. AI native service firms
2. Offline businesses
3. Distribution (media, community, audience)
4. Proprietary datasets
5. Domain specific harnesses (the agent that runs one industry's work)
6. Robotics and physical AI
7. Physical products with a fan following
8. Compute and energy
9. Health, longevity, and care
10. Marketplaces and social networks (for people and agents)
11. Real assets (property, equipment, land, infrastructure)
12. Vertical agents
13. Security
🚨Leopold/Situational Awareness returns?
Since last Friday, there's been a string of significant Flex calls bought in concentrated AI names: $315M total options premiums / $1.1B of delta / $5.8M of vega.
Positions:
- $SNDK: Jan 2040/2200 calls - $57M prem, $198M delta, $1.04M vega.
- $BE: Jan 250/310 calls - $48M prem, $140M delta, $565k vega.
- $INTC: Jan 105/115 calls - $48M prem, $185M delta, $870k vega.
- $CRWV: Jan 105/115 calls - $43M prem, $160M delta, $770k vega.
- $DRAM: Jan 65/70 calls - $43M prem, $173M delta, $855k vega.
- $SKHY: Jan 190/210 calls - $39M prem, $148M delta, $710k vega.
- $AMD: Jan 540/580 calls - $36M prem, $193M delta, $1.08M vega.
It'll be confirmed as Leopold if we start to see some big FLEX calls in $MU / $NBIS / $TSM soon.
Data via CBOE. NMR + GS desks aligned on "single mystery buyer" narrative...
Told you.
*SITUATIONAL AWARENESS ACTIVE IN OPTIONS MARKET: CNBC CITING SOURCES
“Leopold has been buying hundreds of millions in options in $CRWV among others”
CNBC reporting buying call options "of some significance" in $AMD, $BE, $SNDK, and others.
Women have aborted 4-20x more children over the past 50 years than the sum total of people killed in all wars in human history.
The number of children aborted today equals all wars in all of human history every 2-6 years.
One of the best recent podcasts on AI. Neil has a gift for explaining all of the jargon and insights simply.
(I’m not involved, just found it unusually educational).
David @friedberg on the hypocrisy of @RoKhanna:
"This is some dude who has a $300M net worth. His children have memberships at 3 country clubs."
"The dude lives in a $10M house in Washington, DC."
"And he used to be the moderate Silicon Valley guy who would go around to all the tech CEOs and founders and VCs and be like, 'Give me your money. I'm a moderate. We're going to make the Democratic Party work for you.'"
"Then he saw the tides change, and he's like, 'Oh, this is yum, yum. I'm going to run for president in 2028.'"
"Just to be clear on this, he is so unlikable, I think he'll likely end up being Secretary of Housing and Urban Development if AOC is elected president."
"I do not disagree with him or Gavin or anyone else that tax policy in America is fucked up."
"When billionaires borrow against their unrealized capital gains, they should pay capital gains tax. Capital gains tax should be 40%, not 15% or 18% or 20%. In fact, labor should pay less. Income tax should be much lower. Capital gains should be much higher. That would be a fair tax policy."
"I don't know a lot of people who are wealthy who will look me in the eye and truly disagree with that."
"It's a lot of bullshit when we all say, 'It incentivizes investment.' Great, it incentivizes investment. What are you going to do with your excess capital if the tax rate is 40% versus 20%? You're not gonna invest it now? Of course you're going to fucking invest it."
"But instead of those practical solutions like I just laid out, they're all like, 'Let's go fire up the fucking socialist train because it's worked so well in fucking Cuba and Venezuela and the Soviet Union and all these other places.'"
"What both parties are missing is a policy agenda that says: Here's the shit we have to do to keep America from going down the socialist death spiral. And they all should be fucking doing it, both sides."
This chippy driver shot Langasque has in the bag is awesome.
Chokes way down and babies it.
Ball goes about half has high as a tour average drive with about 90% of the ball speed, but he still gets the full forgiveness of the big driver face.
This finally stopped Claude's crazy pursuit of talking more and more unintelligible every passing day
> Save in memory to always use ASD-STE100 Simplified Technical English when you talk to me
Thank god!
“Canada since Mark Carney became Prime Minister in March, 2025, has outperformed everyone in America, the Eurozone and anywhere else in the world.” - Bloomberg Editor-In Chief, Matt Winkler