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Alexander Chuguryan🔥CHUGI
@7CHUGI
Love learning, investing/trading, tech/science. Hopefully we figure out what the universe is about.
Joined September 2013
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$1,000 into $1.18 million in 23 years?
That’s what the quarterly rebalanced equal-weight Magnificent 7 $MAGS strategy would deliver if it compounded at its recent ~36% net CAGR over 23 years.
For context, the same $1,000 would grow to roughly
$101,000 in $QQQ NASDAQ100,
$27,500 in $SPY S&P 500.
MAG7 ($AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $NVDA, $TSLA) held in equal weights and rebalanced quarterly.
A simple, passive, yet very powerful strategy.
$PLTR probably best AI implementation exposure, you need the data and systems organized to utilize LLMs.
$RDDT is interesting as data source for training as well as seemingly last platform with more of actual humans, or at least the bots explicitly market as such.
$NOW probably one of the businesses unlikely to get get replaced, as even @JensenHuang says $NVDA will keep using them.
But some companies like $ADBE I am not so sure about. Creators use their tools to produce content so there is some bias. But longterm as the AI tools get better, I think the pricing power of the software tools can decrease significantly and if the growth stagnates and margins compress it might not be ideal investment longterm. While short-medium term probably any software will suffice as hedge for semi stocks drawdowns.
State kinda burns the money they make through basically triple taxing the population (you pay taxes on what you earn, on what you buy, what you own/sell). In US the actual amount vs the spending is quite limited from lower income families, so I think it could be more beneficial to abolish the taxes for bellow $50k income or something like that.
On the other hand the more significant issue is the disproportionate growth of assets and overall costs of living (food, housing, car, all the new tech that didn’t even exist decades ago…), compared to incomes that grow less than inflation for significant portion of the population.
This is probably inherent side effects of capitalism, as the corporations scale they have more power over the society, systems, government… and the goals of corporations aren’t necessarily aligned with those of population overall.
Not sure what could solve this other than the full automation of the production and resource collection. You have gov spending inefficiently, or much more efficient corporations whose goals are benefiting the few owners.
US has pretty good system where the employees become co-owners, so if someone is willing to work hard they can make it out to significantly successful level, unlike in other parts of the world.
I think with better defined rules sets we can implement more of the human intuition and thinking, to be done by the models.
Ofc, we will still need human to decide what to do and whats good or bad, as the LLM architecture seems incapable of doing so, through it has come pretty far as is.
I think only feasible goal is having bunch of agents, some orchestrators, and each having the “intuition” & goal rules sets, that would ideally be set by other agents from very small human input. Human being like some CEO of huge corporation of agents. Ofc course for now, there are no signs that intuition on higher level can be well achieved or defined by simple rule sets.
So still comes down to if simple human definition or goal can be redefined by some orchestrator agent into more accurate sets of rules for other agents.
This might be complicated without in depth human interventions, furthermore considering illogical guardrails and ways these systems are currently designed to work definitely not help with already limiting LLM architecture.
Terafab will be built in Grimes County, Texas
In April, we broke ground on our research fab on the North Campus of Giga Texas – the precursor to Terafab.
Both Tesla & SpaceX will need far more chips than current & future global production can supply.
This is why we're building the largest chip manufacturing facility ever, with the goal of producing over 1 terawatt of compute per year
The future is built in Texas
https://t.co/RQPNlAasdP
$MAGS up almost 10% in a week.
Big tech wins either way, if AI investments are profitable they profit most as they have most spend. If it doesn’t work, they cut spending and their margins skyrocket. $TSLA still has bit rich valuation and unless @robotaxi starts rolling out faster it’s not the best short-medium term, but longterm it has the @Tesla_Optimus…
$AMZN $MSFT $META $AAPL $GOOGL
$1,000 into $1.18 million in 23 years?
That’s what the quarterly rebalanced equal-weight Magnificent 7 $MAGS strategy would deliver if it compounded at its recent ~36% net CAGR over 23 years.
For context, the same $1,000 would grow to roughly
$101,000 in $QQQ NASDAQ100,
$27,500 in $SPY S&P 500.
MAG7 ($AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $NVDA, $TSLA) held in equal weights and rebalanced quarterly.
A simple, passive, yet very powerful strategy.
OH. MY. GOODNESS.
CITADEL HAS BOUGHT A MAJORITY OF THE PUBLIC ASSETS FROM LEOPOLD'S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUND.
So...Citadel scares everyone on Tuesday about a surprise rate hike during FOMC that WE ALL KNEW was not going to happen...
On Wednesday, the entire market freaks out about the rate hike which causes the selling to compound on itself creating 50-70% drawdowns across the board in high beta semicondcutor names...
Which means Leopold who we now know had $45B of assets and was 400% LEVERED ends up being the sacrifice as he gets liquidated at what theoretically could be the bottom due to not having the margin requirements to keep solvent...
AND THE PERSON WHO CAUSED THE SELLOFF WITH THE RATE HIKE FEARS ENDS UP COMING IN TO BUY HIS ASSETS FOR 40 TO 50 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR.
By the way, Leopold is getting married this weekend. I think he wanted to make sure he wasn't getting margin called during his wedding.
A vet on wall street in Ken Griffin takes out the young new kid.
ABSOLUTE. CINEMA.
A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:
1. Semis $SMH fell about 2.5% today as the market reacted to a mix of China supply-chain headlines and growing AI financing concerns. A Chinese state-backed firm has reportedly started mass-producing domestic DUV lithography machines, raising fears that China could become less reliant on Western suppliers like ASML and pressure future equipment demand. At the same time, Nvidia $NVDA reportedly backstopping OpenAI’s new data center buildout with $250B, along with another $5B investment into a new AI startup, is adding to concerns that parts of the AI trade are becoming too circular. China also just completed its second-largest IPO ever through a memory company, which is feeding worries that memory supply could expand just as pricing may be nearing a peak.
2. Palantir $PLTR CEO Alex Karp kicked off the company’s first Sovereignty Bootcamp, bringing together 150+ customers to discuss sovereign AI and enterprise ownership of AI-driven value. Karp said companies should not pay for AI tools only to have their business replicated by the provider, arguing that enterprises need to own what they produce. He called sovereign AI “the most important thing in AI,” framing it as the next major wave of the AI revolution. He also said: "You can’t be paying someone and then your reward is that they get to replicate your business. It’s absolutely crazy. We think there is an alternative way of doing this that actually creates more value for an enterprise."
3. Citadel Securities reportedly expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, per Bloomberg. The firm thinks markets may be underpricing a more hawkish Fed pivot and says a surprise hike would reinforce the central bank’s inflation-fighting credibility. Interest-rate swaps currently imply about a 40%chance of a move this week, with one full hike priced by September. Citadel says the recent jump in energy prices could be enough to push the Fed toward acting immediately.
4. Nvidia $NVDA announced the Open Secure AI Alliance, bringing industry leaders together to build open tools for securing software and AI agents. Jensen Huang said, “Attackers have frontier AI. Defenders need a frontier AI ecosystem.” Nvidia is arguing that open models and security tooling should be viewed as defensive infrastructure, not a liability. The company warned that broad restrictions on open frontier AI could weaken cyber defenses, increase reliance on a small group of closed providers, and concentrate too much power. Nvidia is calling for shared investment in open AI defense systems, including datasets, evaluation frameworks, attack simulators, and red-teaming tools.
5. BlackRock $BLK raised $12.5B of debt to help finance Meta’s $META nearly 1GW AI data center campus in El Paso, Texas. The 2048 notes priced at 287.5 bps over 10-year Treasuries and drew about $20B in demand, or roughly 1.6x the deal size. BlackRock-backed entities own 80% of the project, while Meta owns the remaining 20%. The financing is backed by Meta’s long-term lease commitments, allowing the data center debt to stay off Meta’s balance sheet.
6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 4.8M contracts, $TSLA with 2.6M contracts, $AAPL with 1.8M contracts, $MU with 1.1M contracts, $INTC with 1.0M contracts, $MSFT with 700K contracts, $AMD with 654K contracts, $AMZN with 636K contracts, $SPCX with 629K contracts, and $GOOGL with 552K contracts.
7. Trump said the U.S. paused strikes on Iran to give negotiations another chance, per Axios. He warned that the U.S. could still return to “very strong military action” if talks break down, adding that diplomacy will not get much time. Discussions are reportedly centered on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting broader nuclear talks, with Trump set to meet Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Tuesday.
8. Amazon $AMZN has filed with the FCC to launch 5,105 satellites by 2028 for a direct-to-device mobile network, per FT. The service would support voice, messaging, data, and emergency connectivity beyond traditional cell-tower coverage. Amazon plans to use spectrum tied to its $11.6B Globalstar deal, putting it more directly up against SpaceX’s Starlinkin satellite-enabled mobile services.
9. Foreign buying of U.S. equities has surged to a record $850B over the last 12 months, more than quadrupling since the start of 2025. That is also roughly 450% above the average since 2000. As a share of total equity market cap, foreign purchases are now around 1.3%, the highest since the post-Financial Crisis recovery in 2010 and above the 2021 meme-stock peak of roughly 1.1%.
10. AT&T $T is expanding its use of D-Wave Quantum $QBTS across network operations through a new agreement focused on complex optimization problems. In early testing, AT&T said D-Wave’s annealing quantum technology reduced one network optimization workload from roughly one hour to under 15 seconds. The initial rollout will focus on integrating D-Wave into AT&T’s agentic AI tools for outage detection, technician routing, network planning, traffic management, and response. AT&T said those tools helped reduce customer downtime by 12M hours in 2025. The company is also evaluating D-Wave’s gate-model systems for quantum security and communications, with financial terms not disclosed.
11. BofA says the selloff in European semiconductors has created a compelling entry point. The firm notes the SOX has underperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 18% from its peak, similar to past corrections like the 2015 China slowdownand the 2018 China-U.S. trade/Fed hiking cycle, but still less severe than prior downturn drawdowns near 30%. BofA argues fundamentals remain strong, with the sector trading at about a 3x discount to average 2028 consensus multiples, while semiconductor capital equipment names are trading at a 6x–7x discount. BofA also says fears of a memory pricing crash look overdone, while expecting ASM Q2 EPS to beat consensus by 11% and keeping its 2027–2028 EPS estimates for ASML 6%–7% above consensus.
12. South Korea’s KOSPI fell as much as 8% early in trading, triggering a circuit breaker, which temporarily pauses trading to slow panic selling and give the market time to reset. The move is heavily tied to memory stocks, with Samsung and SK Hynix making up roughly half the index and both acting as major memory-cycle trades.
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.
🚨 $2.8 TRILLION has been wiped out from stocks, gold, silver, and crypto in the last 24 hours.
Here's why everything is crashing:
1. Alphabet's earnings disappointed investors last night.
It raised its 2026 AI spending plan to $195-205 billion, and tech stocks are crashing on fears that AI spending is growing faster than profits.
2. Oil prices jumped to 42 day high today after Houthi rebels attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.
3. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.714% today, its highest level since Jan 2025.
4. Odds of a Fed rate hike in September jumped to 82%, up from just 20% two weeks ago.
5. Trump told Axios he's close to ordering a "massive attack" on Iran, bigger than the last one.
Everything is feeding into the same fear, and every market is crashing because of it.
The Semis are having their best day in a few weeks, but still significantly lower from their ATHs.
If the Semis have a good day, once again it means the SaaS and Mag 7 names should have a bad day, which is what is playing out again.
At this point I am curious how this trajectory continues to play out — so far this year, hyperscalers go down on increased capex and semiconductor names, which benefit from that capex, go up. The software names go down with the hyperscalers because the AI infra trade going green assumes that the application layer companies will be hurt by AI.
However, we just saw one of the worst drawdowns for momentum (which were basically semis) during July in the past 25 years. Multiple stories of liquidations and margin calls across the board.
Does that experience mean people go back to buying the boring SaaS and Mag 7 companies to have more sustainable, less violent volatility with cash flows that won’t get discounted due to cyclicality or fears of capex going down? If anything, the Mag 7 would rally on capex going down.
Or do people double down on the AI infra names as they are likely to steal all the EPS growth and continue to get a larger premium based on the discount towards the companies spending the capex? Because if the money goes right back to the semis, we end up getting the same market dynamics that we’ve seen for the past 3 months.
If we do get a doubling down, does the same leverage that just got flushed out of the system come back? If the hyperscalers all increase capex, do they go down again in order for the semis to go up?
These big tech earnings will be really important to see how the market is perceiving and interpreting the future of capex spend.
$NVDA $AMD $NBIS $MU $AVGO
Grok Build is now fully open source, and SpaceXAI has made its privacy-first approach even stronger
SpaceXAI has officially:
• Open-sourced the Grok Build harness CLI
• Reset usage limits for all users
• Disabled data retention by default
• Deleted all previously retained coding data
• Made the harness fully local-first, allowing you to run it with your own inference
Since launch, Grok Build has supported Zero Data Retention (ZDR) for users who opted in
Now, based on community feedback, SpaceXAI has gone a step further: Data retention is now OFF by default for everyone
Your coding sessions remain private by default, with retention entirely under your control
By combining an open-source harness, local-first execution, zero retention by default, and the deletion of previously retained coding data, SpaceXAI is setting a new standard for privacy in AI coding tools
Transparent, open, and built to give users complete control over their data
Fable is definitely the best AI model I have tried so far. It appears to be more rational, definitely less agreeable, and seems to be able to actually do more of what matters.
That being said it still is LLM and doesn’t have the human intuition or a way to set its own direction. It comes down to how well you can ask what you want and structure your prompt.
Also the excessive limitations, for example it stopping anything related to biology or health is ridiculous. Even asking it to research variety of best business ideas and best sectors (some of which included genetics and such) got flagged and automatically downgraded to Opus…
It will be interesting to see how the lack of access to best models or only extremely limited versions will change the society over upcoming years.
If the growth collapses the multiples will get compressed, so maybe it would be interesting to see the chart extending with future expected earnings to better see the trend.
Of course those are just estimates and it really comes down to more qualitative analysis of the stocks and where one believes their fundamentals are headed.
This appears quite misleading to just compare weight in this context. It should be adjusted by growth or some tangible metric like revenue or earnings.
@grok how would the charts look if we looked at this more rationally, adjusted by the underlying growth as mentioned above? (To better reflect the actual increase in weight, while even using those metrics isn’t perfect as companies with higher growth rates command higher multiples, but at least more reasonable)
*The ~36% net CAGR used for the 23 year projection accounts for the MAGS ETF’s ~0.30% expense ratio. Through the MAGS ETF only launched in 2023, we used underlying synthetic backtest of quarterly rebalanced equal-weight Mag7 performance over the last 10 years (possible only after Meta’s 2012 IPO) that delivered 36.3% gross CAGR.
**Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, and concentration risk is real. That said, given the strong moats, growth, and increasing societal dependence on these companies, I believe significant longterm outperformance versus QQQ and the S&P 500 is likely to continue.
$1,000 into $1.18 million in 23 years?
That’s what the quarterly rebalanced equal-weight Magnificent 7 $MAGS strategy would deliver if it compounded at its recent ~36% net CAGR over 23 years.
For context, the same $1,000 would grow to roughly
$101,000 in $QQQ NASDAQ100,
$27,500 in $SPY S&P 500.
MAG7 ($AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $NVDA, $TSLA) held in equal weights and rebalanced quarterly.
A simple, passive, yet very powerful strategy.
It comes with bigger swings. But for long-term investors who keep DCAing during drawdowns, that volatility can be a feature, not a bug.
Even in a worst case of ~49% drawdown right after investing, historical returns suggest you’d still overtake
the S&P 500 in about 4 years
and QQQ in about 6 years.
If your horizon is longer than that, this ranks among the easiest and best performing passive, unleveraged equity strategies available.
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