湾区投机者

6 days ago

ECMWF, AIFS, and GEFS forecast substantially below-normal precipitation across Argentina's corn and soybean production regions in week two (Oct 26–Nov 1). Argentina's corn production-weighted precipitation forecast for days 8–14: • ECMWF: 72% of normal • AIFS: 55% of normal • GEFS: 54% of normal Argentina's soybean production-weighted precipitation forecast for days 8–14: • ECMWF: 58% of normal • AIFS: 49% of normal • GEFS: 46% of normal Get a risk-free trial of CropProphet using the link in the comments below! 👇 #OOTT #AgWx #Corn #Soybeans #Argentina #GrainMarkets

CropProphet's tweet photo. ECMWF, AIFS, and GEFS forecast substantially below-normal precipitation across Argentina's corn and soybean production regions in week two (Oct 26–Nov 1).

Argentina's corn production-weighted precipitation forecast for days 8–14:
• ECMWF: 72% of normal
• AIFS: 55% of normal
• GEFS: 54% of normal

Argentina's soybean production-weighted precipitation forecast for days 8–14:
• ECMWF: 58% of normal
• AIFS: 49% of normal
• GEFS: 46% of normal

Get a risk-free trial of CropProphet using the link in the comments below! 👇

#OOTT #AgWx #Corn #Soybeans #Argentina #GrainMarkets

Reedy Rees @maestro_sundog

7 days ago

置顶他

0x鸣人

@LuBtc888

8 days ago

张朝阳真牛逼！不愧是曾经的状元。这简直是我看过最震撼的学习方法！！

597

715

706K

888shenzhen retweeted

Gene Graner

@heartlandinves1

7 days ago

@LorenDempster @maestro_sundog @BrianElsasser2 What I have been gathering is the corn crop is under 179 nationally , but the bean yield is likely above 54.

888shenzhen retweeted

7 days ago

@heartlandinves1 @LorenDempster @BrianElsasser2 I was saying this a month ago. The bean yield will be close to 55. The corn yield results suggest close to 180, up from my ideas a few weeks ago. The drag in wcb is less than expected

134

888shenzhen retweeted

Fabian Wierczoch

@FabianWierczoch

10 days ago

Talked to the CEO of Germany‘s largest private grain trader. He advises farmers to sell 80-90% of old crop wheat and 50% of new crop. Due to his past as the global head of research of infamous Alfred C. Toepfer (nowadays ADM‘s analysis unit in Hamburg), he still is very much into the details of global grain markets. His core argument: 🔸Wheat is 15% too expensive when purely looking at his fundamental model. The only reason prices are so high is because of the current Black Sea logistics issues 🔸Once there is a new grain deal, prices will correct sharply 🔸He is convinced there will be a grain deal. Re-routing grain via train from Ukraine to Poland or Rostov to St. Petersburg is costing enormous amounts. 🔸On-farm prices of below $3/bu (100/t) are putting immense pressure on Ukraine‘s and Russia‘s governments. Farmers don’t have financial buffers. Especially the large agro-holdings are on the brink right now because most of them are highly leveraged. Now interest rates went up while grain prices crashed. 🔸 Do both governments really wanna sacrifice their farmers? He doesn’t think so 🔸El Nino is still far away. Also, for grains it’s usually good due to better moisture in Argentina und Southern US (HRW). Only Australia would really suffer, but there it looks really good so far 🔸Only oilseeds suffer in an El Nino due to dryness for palm oil areas in Asia 🔸Wheat area goes down in Ukraine and Russia. But especially Ukraine has a history of planting much more corn and sunflowers when wheat planting struggles or they have winter kill. Corn has double the yield of wheat.

145

56K

888shenzhen retweeted

9 days ago

How has soybean planting shifted across Brazil over the past 50 years, and why does it matter for weather forecasts? In the 1970s, soybean cultivation was concentrated primarily in southern Brazil. Since then, soybean planting has expanded substantially into central Brazil, particularly Mato Grosso and Goiás, as well as other northern producing regions. The attached maps and GIF illustrate how soybean cultivation has expanded and shifted geographically across Brazil over time, showing changes in the share of land used for soybeans. With the ECMWF, GEFS, and AIFS forecasting below-normal precipitation in Mato Grosso over the next two weeks, rainfall across this region is important to monitor as Brazil's 2026/27 soybean planting season progresses. This geographic shift in soybean cultivation also highlights the value of CropProphet's production-weighted weather indices, such as Brazil soybean production-weighted precipitation. These indices account for where soybean production is concentrated when aggregating weather conditions and forecasts, rather than weighting all geographic areas equally. #OOTT #AgWx #Soybeans #Brazil #GrainMarkets #Soja

9 days ago

10 days ago

"The trade is focused on is not the forecast for El Niño two months out. It's what's going on right now." @StandardGrain So, let's take a look at the precipitation forecast for Brazil soybean producing regions over the next 2 weeks. Today's 00z Brazil soybean production-weighted precipitation forecast for week 1 (days 1-7): • ECMWF: 107% of normal • GEFS: 80% of normal • AIFS: 77% of normal Today's 00z Brazil soybean production-weighted precipitation forecast for week 2 (days 8-14): • ECMWF: 123% of normal • GEFS: 105% of normal • AIFS: 105% of normal #OOTT #AgWx #Brazil #Soybeans #Soja #GrainMarkets

CropProphet's tweet photo. "The trade is focused on is not the forecast for El Niño two months out. It's what's going on right now." @StandardGrain

So, let's take a look at the precipitation forecast for Brazil soybean producing regions over the next 2 weeks.

Today's 00z Brazil soybean production-weighted precipitation forecast for week 1 (days 1-7):
• ECMWF: 107% of normal
• GEFS: 80% of normal
• AIFS: 77% of normal

Today's 00z Brazil soybean production-weighted precipitation forecast for week 2 (days 8-14):
• ECMWF: 123% of normal
• GEFS: 105% of normal
• AIFS: 105% of normal

#OOTT #AgWx #Brazil #Soybeans #Soja #GrainMarkets

10 days ago

这按摩手法

888shenzhen retweeted

247AG

@247dotAg

11 days ago

Moving along in Brazil. You can see where it is drier, progress is slower. No major weather issue yet, but a bit too wet in southern Brazil. Most forecasts see that as a trend that will struggle to end.......

247dotAg's tweet photo. Moving along in Brazil. You can see where it is drier, progress is slower.

No major weather issue yet, but a bit too wet in southern Brazil.

Most forecasts see that as a trend that will struggle to end....... https://t.co/pr8VRUJC9b

888shenzhen retweeted

Esteban Moscariello

@moscarielloe

12 days ago

🌱 Brasil: la siembra de soja alcanza el 20% del área, frente al 13% de igual fecha del año pasado, lo que anticipa una rápida incorporación de nueva oferta sudamericana si las condiciones climáticas acompañan.

748

888shenzhen retweeted

247AG

@247dotAg

12 days ago

They show a very wet push in the latter part of October, suggesting that the usual wetter trends for the southern half of the U.S. in an El Nino year "should" come into play. We continue to strongly suggest that producers not dally on getting their crops out.

247dotAg's tweet photo. They show a very wet push in the latter part of October, suggesting that the usual wetter trends for the southern half of the U.S. in an El Nino year "should" come into play.

We continue to strongly suggest that producers not dally on getting their crops out. https://t.co/LUNPfOjeJo

13 days ago

巴西大豆产量图

16 days ago

Brazil's soybean production has shifted north. Has its relationship with ENSO changed too? In 1974, southern Brazil accounted for 87.5% of national soybean production. By 2024, that share had fallen to 27.5%, while the Center-West and North/Northeast together accounted for approximately 65%. That geographic shift raises an important question when examining historical soybean yields and ENSO. Comparing state-level soybean yield deviations from trend with the Jan–Feb Relative Niño 3.4 index reveals some notable differences: • Mato Grosso, Goiás and Bahia: Since 2000, all three states have shown negative correlations with the ENSO index (r = -0.44, -0.32 and -0.37, respectively). Before 2000, their correlations were near zero or positive. • Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná: Correlations have remained relatively weak in both periods. • Nationally: Even when applying the 2024 regional production mix to every season since 1986, the correlation remains weak and is not statistically significant (r = -0.18, p = 0.26). Brazil's soybean production has expanded into regions where higher ENSO index values have been associated with lower soybean yields since 2000. However, through 2024, that regional pattern has not translated into a statistically significant relationship at the national level. The maps show how Brazil's soybean-growing regions have changed since 1990, while the state-level comparison shows how yield correlations with ENSO differed between 1974–1999 and 2000–2024. #OOTT #AgWx #GrainMarkets #Soybeans #Brazil #ENSO

CropProphet's tweet photo. Brazil's soybean production has shifted north. Has its relationship with ENSO changed too?

In 1974, southern Brazil accounted for 87.5% of national soybean production. By 2024, that share had fallen to 27.5%, while the Center-West and North/Northeast together accounted for approximately 65%.

That geographic shift raises an important question when examining historical soybean yields and ENSO.

Comparing state-level soybean yield deviations from trend with the Jan–Feb Relative Niño 3.4 index reveals some notable differences:
• Mato Grosso, Goiás and Bahia: Since 2000, all three states have shown negative correlations with the ENSO index (r = -0.44, -0.32 and -0.37, respectively). Before 2000, their correlations were near zero or positive.

• Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná: Correlations have remained relatively weak in both periods.

• Nationally: Even when applying the 2024 regional production mix to every season since 1986, the correlation remains weak and is not statistically significant (r = -0.18, p = 0.26).

Brazil's soybean production has expanded into regions where higher ENSO index values have been associated with lower soybean yields since 2000.

However, through 2024, that regional pattern has not translated into a statistically significant relationship at the national level.

The maps show how Brazil's soybean-growing regions have changed since 1990, while the state-level comparison shows how yield correlations with ENSO differed between 1974–1999 and 2000–2024.

#OOTT #AgWx #GrainMarkets #Soybeans #Brazil #ENSO

888shenzhen retweeted