Eight-infinity Eight

Algorithms,Machine learning & Data science
System trading firm...

[Eight-infinity Eight @8infnty8]

https://t.co/V8J8wNPhSb

[The Icahnist @TheIcahnist]

The 2025 Rainwater Playbook

The gap: too much US capital, too few EU platforms.

Forced EU sellers & panic mode in Europe

1. Buy the hidden industrial champions in DACH

2. Bring in US operators, upgrade ops, software, and sales.

3. Scale them beyond €10M-20M EBITDA

4. Flip it to a US fund starved for EU platforms

Start with an out-of-favour industry:

Automotive.

Then find the one company or niche inside it that actually dominates:

Stabilus (gas springs), Rollax (seat rails), Leoni & Yazaki (wiring), Freudenberg & ElringKlinger (seals), Tecman (NVH).

Tiny parts, long contracts, high switching costs.

[The Icahnist @TheIcahnist]

King of Distressed Deals

Richard Rainwater made BILLIONS buying what Wall Street hated.

Oil busts. Bankrupt drillers. Broken hospital chains.

The Playbook

[Morning Brew ☕️ @MorningBrew]

$61.5 billion to $350 billion in 8 months?

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

3.8m views for what is absolute garbage.

There is too much to address here but I'll try and cover the most egregious points:

* Japan printed and exported capital. NO. Japan has run a current account surplus and had no choice to export capital, whether it raised debt at 0% or not. It will still export capital with rates at any other level as long as they export more goods than they import.

* Weakness in 30y is primarily because the BoJ and domestic (mostly insurance) stopped buying asset-liability matchers didn't need to hedge because rates were higher. I wrote about the 30y JGB in a weekly not long ago, below.

https://t.co/XZAaN2CKza

Foreign investors stepped in to fill the gap while the BoJ pulled back. So is the BoJ buying good or not? Apparently "money printing" is bad if you do it, and bad if you don't. Garbage.

* USD hedge costs are high at the moment, but it's not COSTING them money. Hedged UST still return positively. If they suddenly unwound $1.1trn of hedges, what do you think would happen to hedge costs?

* USTs have also been the best performing DM bond market this year. How does this line up? (Sorry for the percent change in yield chart but I couldn't be bothered, the point stands).

The dooming about mortgage rates just falls over on the facts.

* Either way, it just doesn't matter. Stories of Chinese/Japanese and sudden liquidation of USTs has been spread by charlatens for as long as I've been in markets, and they always fail on one simple question...why would you destroy the value of your own portfolio by liquidating fast? It makes no sense at all, and they can't do it anyhow - most of these holdings are in private hands.

* Interest costs aren't relevant when nominal growth is also climbing to keep pace with them. That is the entire point of the rate hikes.

If nominal growth WASN'T climbing, then they wouldn't be hiking rates!

Again this is the common mainstream view of bond yields. It's bad if they're going down, it's bad if they're going up. The only way doomers don't write about them is if they stay perfectly still at a level they are comfortable with. More on that in the weekly below.

https://t.co/3sEPBEMXhU

I won't get a tiny fraction of the views on this post, but it is the quoted post that sells, not this one.

[kristen shaughnessy @kshaughnessy2]

Investors may never see their money after a private equity owned life insurer collapses with a $2.2 Billion hole.

PHL Variable Insurance Co. is owned by Golden Gate Capital, the same private equity firm that pushed Red Lobster into bankruptcy

Bloomberg says Jenny Nappo, a widow, has received only $300k of a $2 Million death benefit and regulators capped payouts at $250-300k

https://t.co/h0FDoYUUEY

[Jeff Park @dgt10011]

Japan’s 30y bond yield has never been higher in history than it is now

The global carry machine is on life support

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Crazy to think that money supply is expanding this aggressively even as global central bank balance sheets have been contracting.

We’ve seen a $10T increase in global money supply in just the past 12 months.

Now imagine what happens once central banks inevitably need to expand their balance sheets again — which, in my view, is only a matter of time.

If this helps:

Mute the recent volatility noise in hard assets — this is the macro data point that ultimately drives the cycle, in my view.

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

PE firms are now credit firms

Apollo: 82% of AUM is credit ($723B)
Ares: 72% credit ($391B), PE down to 5% from 9%
Blackstone: Credit now 33% vs PE at 31%

Successful pivot from “financial engineering” to “financing the real economy”

[Yvonne Mangunda 🇿🇼 @yvonnemangunda]

This is how we support cricket in my country.

Zimbabwe face recently crowned world test champions South Africa and former world champions New Zealand in different formats, starting with test against South Africa end of June in Harare and Bulawayo.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The bond market is now pricing in 3 rate cuts by year-end and 3 more cuts in 2026. That would bring the Fed Funds Rate down to 2.83%. After a brief hiatus, easy money is back.

[Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner]

Mind the Gap: Gold prices have climbed to new record highs, but gold mining stocks haven’t kept up. In fact, mining shares have been lagging well behind, a trend that has persisted since 2013.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Shocking stat of the day:

US federal debt will reach $150 TRILLION by 2055, according to the CBO's own forecast.

This would be ~$1.6 million of debt per American household, up from the current ~$274,000.

It would also push the US Debt-to-GDP ratio to a record 169%, up from the current 123%.

To put this into perspective, US Debt-to-GDP has averaged ~69% over the last 50 years.

The CBO projects that the budget deficit will exceed 5% of GDP every year until 2055.

In US history, deficits this high have only occurred for 5-straight years one time, during World War II.

The US debt crisis is set to get even worse.

[Inkanyezi Capital @InkanyeziCapit1]

@8infnty8

[Rufaro Hozheri 🇿🇼 @andrea_hoxbucks]

Today in History @ZfnCapital

2002

The Zim government ordered pension funds to underwrite a Z$30b bond issue to finance the land reform program, the Zim Independent claimed, arguing the  government failed to woo banking institutions to finance the land program after it refused to give assurances on how banks would recover loans.

[Inkanyezi Capital @InkanyeziCapit1]

@8infnty8

[The Financial Gazette @FingazLive]

THE Infrastructure and Development Bank of Zimbabwe plans to explore trade-finance based bond issuances in the second half of 2025, as part of efforts to address funding constraints in ongoing projects.>https://t.co/2BIl1zdFUZ

[Inkanyezi Capital @InkanyeziCapit1]

@8infnty8

[💲Zimpricecheck🇿🇼 @zimpricecheck]

Kombis are now required to pay taxes of US$60 per month to ZIMRA in presumptive taxes. ZINARA will ensure that only kombis, taxis, and other public service vehicles, as well as commercial vehicles, will be issued licenses if they have paid this presumptive tax.

Kombis are officially rated to carry 15 seated passengers, although they often overload and carry 19, placing them in the US$60 category.

We provide Tax Registration, Individual and Company Tax Clearance, and Returns.

Get in touch with us at [phone].

👉 Join our WhatsApp Channel to stay updated: https://t.co/YFpwAWekkX

[Moe @moneyacademyKE]

The most valuable companies in Kenya by market cap today:

Safaricom—Sh1.2 trillion
Equity Bank—Sh209 billion
KCB Bank—Sh175 billion
EABL—Sh163 billion
StanChart—Sh122 billion
Co-op Bank—Sh119 billion
ABSA—Sh108 billion
NCBA— Sh109 billion
Stanbic —Sh71 billion
I&M—Sh66 billion

[Film Updates @FilmUpdates]

Zach Cregger’s ‘WEAPONS’ has surpassed $250M at the worldwide box office.

It cost $38M to produce.