Count Draghula

The business cycle is dead.

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

MUTUALLY ASSURED ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION

Large-scale tariffs are the "big red button" that closes the US capital account off to the world.

The US has had to mirror China's closed capital account to protect itself from a system so good at giving it what free markets want.

1/

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@judahrhodie Thank god. Thought the butcher did it!

He would've been taking them home for sure if he did

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@judahrhodie I just don't understand why you'd french them. Those parts are the best

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

It's a day ending in 'y' so the Nikkei is up 3%

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@espress0bro Yes, but it requires their presence in sufficient size

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

Commodity prices are driven by real users of who accept/honour delivery of the underlying.

If these participants aren't present, then speculation (and maybe manipulation) can easily offset each other.

In a lot of ways this is uncharted territory from the position of inventory drawdowns and the scope of the problem.

It's also really easy to say that nobody is going to let such a huge problem actually happen. How can you argue with that?

[RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research @RenMacLLC]

This makes very odd assumptions about the market's forward-looking nature. If the price will rise in the next few weeks because of something that is already known (low inventory levels), then why hasn't it happened already?

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@AahanPrometheus That seems the obvious answer. I guess no Asian users think China will turn off the tap

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@UnsureKris This is all correct, however it is the end users that should be most aware of this. Why aren't they hedging against it?

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@Merridew__ It's a joke

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@jtrader814 Because you are receiving a deliberately undervalued currency?

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

If Trump were to end the blockade and walk away with no more communication with Iranians, what would happen to the Strait?

Would it naturally open, or would Iran use it to extract more concessions from the world?

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@Ubertag90210 They are still under full sanction remember!

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@jtrader814 Until China open their capital account nobody wants Yuan in any size.

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@jtrader814 Bases in ME. Petrodollar can never go away until there is a viable substitute no matter what the US does

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@jtrader814 I don't think so. A "deal" that Iran wants includes removing presence from the ME. If he walks away it stays, and Israel can do whatever it wants. It's far more likely than a "deal" in my view

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@Merridew__ Everything is downstream from narrow high beta Momo. Everything you explain is the mathematical expression of that

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@TaePage_ Blind spots can help as well as harm

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

Semis wouldn't be where they are if it wasn't for Hormuz.

Nothing else is investable. Every thing is tainted by Hormuz. So capital flows to the only good news story there is. Dangerous.

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

There is no Iran deal.

They just keep doing fake deals every week to manage the market. So prices are lower than they should be and demand isn't being destroyed. Capital is flowing to literally the worst places it can considering the situation.

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@VKMacro @tylermacro10 It's like they both become one in a way. Close enough and SPE becomes commerical inventories

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@VKMacro @tylermacro10 Again, if we were at an unknown time until end of SPR supply your theory is 100% correct. Being so close though muddies the waters

[Count Draghula @countdraghula]

@VKMacro @tylermacro10 That is all fair and understand your argument. Yo extend your argument though what if we knew that China was less than 2 months away from ending their SPR build? This is the difference