Jack Rodeghier

GTC provides research & analytics to a diverse group of clients; we actively trade the firm's own money across rates, FX, equity indexes & commodities.

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

Giving thanks for a beautiful sunrise this morning.

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@wbmosler @karimbasta Who could have ever guessed.

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@DoubleWideCap Presented without comment:

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@lisaabramowicz1 @Rob_Hager Chart end date is 2024, doesn't change your premise, although the UST "value" is persisting.

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

Economic data has been beating the heck out of expectations. Is the economy still feeling a tailwind from the pre-oil shock era? Pivot on tap soon as that oil shock hits with a lag? Here's Citi Surprise Index lagged 12 weeks vs UST10YR (yield inverted):

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

Oil shock and bearish bond impulse about to hit the economy with a lag? I sure wouldn't bet against it.

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@BobEUnlimited @LynAldenContact Also, record low consumer sentiment. Personal bankruptcies highest since '12. 90+ day auto loan delinquencies highest since '03. Factoid: Fed has eased 68x over past 40 yrs, 23% happened with CPI > 4.2%. Terrific leverage at the head on SOFR curve for a dovish Fed pivot in Q4.

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@BobEUnlimited @LynAldenContact Also, record low consumer sentiment. Personal bankruptcies highest since '12. 90+ day auto loan delinquencies highest since '03. Factoid: Fed has eased 68x over past 40 yrs, 23% happened with CPI > 4.2%. Terrific leverage at the head on SOFR curve for a dovish Fed pivot in Q4.

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@NickTimiraos @ernietedeschi If the plan includes tax hikes like in 1990 and 1993, I'm all for it. Sad as heck that tax policy isn't being considered to help in the inflation battle. A 2028 story?

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@TimmerFidelity Dust off the Operation Twist 1.0/Fed + Tsy tie-up playbook. Maybe this time will be different, and unintended consequences won't arise. Maybe not.
https://t.co/Qfr1dIHnVj

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@real_bill_gross One day closer to Uncle Sam flexing his anti-trust muscles, to return vibrancy to tech sector, like 1982 era that ushered telecom vibrancy? Alas, that's probably a 2028 story.

https://t.co/04SvEJw8xH

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

SPX has started the year narrower than now on just 3 prior occasions: 1966, 2006, and 2007. Unintended consequence perhaps of monetary and fiscal planning/coordination throttling economic dynamism. Housing stasis impacting vibrancy, too.

https://t.co/H8TL4dh7Z6

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

SPX has started the year narrower than now on just 3 prior occasions: 1966, 2006, and 2007. Unintended consequence perhaps of monetary and fiscal planning/coordination throttling economic dynamism. Housing stasis impacting vibrancy, too.

https://t.co/H8TL4dh7Z6

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@Lavorgnanomics Healthcare is 20% of GDP, is that sustainable? What happens to its contribution to GDP when access to health care is reduced in 2026?

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@PhilMickelson @josefergen Curious, why the outrage now? Illegal immigration into USA grew by 8 million from 2000-2007, why weren't you highlighting this issue then?

[Bonnie Raitt @TheBonnieRaitt]

I wanted to respond to the incredible outpouring of messages that have come in since my song, “Just Like That,” won the GRAMMY award last Sunday night for Song of the Year.

Read Bonnie's full message on her website here: https://t.co/9tzquZVnOd. -- BRHQ
Photo by Ken Friedman

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@wbmosler Perhaps so, but a decidedly different look now compared to 2000 and 2008 (blue bands are rolling 48-month regressions, +/- 2-sigmas):

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@wbmosler A reflection perhaps of end of post-pandemic era largesse maybe. Regardless, quite an abrupt switch.

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@wbmosler As it relates to Uncle Sam's USD monopoly and foreigners weakening their Fx to spur exports, what do you make of this chart, Warren? USD's in circulation really flatlining over past 4 years:

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

Gold 2-day jump of +6.2%, exceeds angst from Gulf War I onset and Brexit, among some noteworthy company. Tariff genie is out of the bottle. Buckle in.

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@cullenroche Operation Twist 3.0 is coming. If Powell won't do it, Trump will find a replacement who will. Keeping an artificial lid on the bond market won't end well.

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@TheStalwart @SeanCasten DJIA vs NIKKEI.
A tale of two generational tops.
1990 Tokyo's Imperial Palace valuation = state of California. Fast forward to 2025: Fartcoin + DJT II = one toke over the line.

[Jack Rodeghier @glarustrading]

@McFaul @WhiteHouse To wit: