Rob Hager

Private Investor, Former Coach

[Rob Anderson @_rob_anderson]

NDR's pattern matching tool shows that the NASDAQ has closely tracked the dotcom analog and is closer to 1998 than 2000. It still suggests near-term volatility ahead.

[Helene Meisler @Chartfest1]

AAII saw little shift last week on the bull side but the bears retreated.

Bulls 36.3% (+1)
Bears 37% (-5)

[Gregory Daco @GregDaco]

📊US nonfarm business sector labor productivity growth revised -0.5pt to a marginal +0.3% q/q (annualized) in Q1 2026:
▶️Output +1.0%,
▶️Hours worked +0.7%.

📉Unit labor costs up a moderate 1.8%, as the 2.1% compensation gain was only partially offset by productivity growth

[Guy Berger @EconBerger]

Claims:

1/ Initial claims at 225K, their highest level since February. We've seen an increase around this time of year in 2023, 2024, and 2025 which leads me to think it's residual seasonality rather than noise or a real deterioration.

Might be high next week too.

[ChallengerGray @ChallengerGray]

May job cuts reached 97,006, the highest May total since 2020.
📈 +16% from April
🤖 AI led layoff reasons for the third straight month
💻 Tech cuts hit their highest level since March 2023
Read the full report below.
https://t.co/yY94zo5yGt
#JobsReport #Layoffs #AI #LaborMarket

[Rob Hager @Rob_Hager]

“The Valuations For Small Caps Remain At A Big Discount To Large-Cap Stocks” @SoberLook ⁦@mrbpartners⁩

[Rob Hager @Rob_Hager]

Germany New Car Registrations (NSA) - @SoberLook

[Rob Hager @Rob_Hager]

U.S. Trailing 10-Year Inflation (Annualized) - @SoberLook

[Rob Hager @Rob_Hager]

MBA Refinance Index by Year - @SoberLook @MBAMortgage

[Rob Hager @Rob_Hager]

Mortgage Market - @SoberLook

[Rob Hager @Rob_Hager]

MBA Purchase Index by Year - @SoberLook @MBAMortgage

[Rob Hager @Rob_Hager]

U.S. Factory Orders (M/M) - @SoberLook

[Rob Hager @Rob_Hager]

.⁦@ADP⁩ Private Employment by Industry (M/M) - @SoberLook

[Rob Hager @Rob_Hager]

ISM Services PMI by Contribution - @SoberLook

[Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen]

Key takeaways from the latest EIA inventory report:

• Combined US commercial crude and SPR inventories have now fallen by around 90 million barrels from their recent peak, including a 16 million barrel decline over the past week.

• Despite increases across all major fuel categories, total petroleum inventories (excluding the SPR) fell by 2.6 million barrels to their lowest level since May 2025.

• Cushing inventories declined for a sixth consecutive week to 22.4 million barrels, edging closer to the operational minimum, widely estimated at around 20 million barrels.

• The latest crude draw was driven in part by a surge in exports to nearly 6 million barrels per day, well above the 3.9 million barrels per day average recorded during the 12 months prior to the conflict.

• US crude production held steady at 13.7 million barrels per day, down 120,000 barrels per day year-to-date and little changed since the conflict began despite significantly higher prices.

• Gasoline and distillate inventories both increased, preventing diesel stocks from dropping below 100 million barrels for the first time since 2003.

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

My model, which consists of several hundred leading indicators for the stock market, is getting nervous. If the economic activity component deteriorates further, the z-score could fall below -1, a critical threshold that has reliably predicted bear markets in the past.

[Augur Infinity @AugurInfinity]

The gap between breakeven inflation and metal prices has widened further. Will metal prices fall, or will breakeven inflation rise?

[Federal Reserve @federalreserve]

Read about economic conditions in Reserve Bank Districts in the #BeigeBook (1/2): https://t.co/e3QNq5khGx

[Econoday, Inc. @Econoday]

U.S. services activity accelerated in May as the ISM Services PMI rose to 54.5. New orders and business activity strengthened, but employment remained in contraction and inflation pressures intensified, with prices hitting their highest level since August 2022.

[ADP Research @AdpResearch]

Private employers added 122,000 jobs in May. Eight out of 10 supersectors showed gains, and employers of all sizes were hiring. Learn more at https://t.co/VaxClcBBwR. #labormarket #jobs