8thwonder

[FuzzyPanda @FuzzyPandaShort]

$TE financials will get punished by today's 232 solar tariff's...the stock market doesn't know it yet!

Below is the math of how TE's solar cell costs are set to actually skyrocket by 50%

Fact:
T1 imports solar cells from Trina Solar (the receipts prove it!)

New Fact:
TE will have to pay a 15% tariff on customs value + a top up to minimum imported prices of $0.22/watt since they import solar cells

The Math:
T1's actual invoices reveal that TE pays Trina Solar an avg of $1.51 per solar cell aka $0.162/watt
- New 15% tariff =$0.162 * 15% = $0.024/w
- New floor price for solar cell imports = $0.220/w
- COGS for solar cells go up to $0.244/w

The Financial Damage:
- TE's solar cell input cogs are +50%!
- Total BOM costs are +38%
- Q1-2026 TE only reported gross margins of +16%.

Gross margins go from +16% to -11%!
---GM's of NEGATIVE 11%!

Whoops there goes all of TE's margin down a tariff drain-hole. T1's shaky financials will be even more devastated!

It also kills any ability for T1 to earn free cash flow which would fund building G2 (the solar cell plant)

It Gets Worse:
- Trina Solar was labeled a Chinese Military Co by US's Dept of War
- so TE actually doesn't qualify for US 45x tax credits of $0.07 (see our reports)
- Excluding the non-cash Tax Credits (which you should because TE booked them without qualifying for them) then TE's GM's would have been -34%
---GM's of NEGATIVE 34%!

Hemlock Poly:
But doesn't TE buy polysilicon from Hemlock in the USA?
Read the announcement - TE is still punished because when TE send Hemlock's US Polysilicon abroad to make solar cells. It gets sent to Trina solar who makes it into solar cells and then re-imports it back into the USA. 232 is clear that all solar cells from abroad are tariffed.

Why Bulls Are Wrong:
- Bulls are excited right now since TE is trying to build a solar cell factory (G2) in the US. TE claims the factory will be up and running next year. It's already been delayed, they don't even have the cash required to build it, and TE's financial future just got way worse.
- Mgmt told investors they weren't buying solar cells from Trina Solar. T1's own invoices exposed they were lying. So anyone that believes mgmt's claims when G2 will be up and running deserves the FEOC'ing that is coming to their portfolio.

Yesterday - TE's financials were FEOC'ed
Today - 232 just pounded TE's financials even harder

Disclosure - Short $TE

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