Andy Lawton

Data Analyst with a keen interest in polling and elections

BSky 🦋: account: @andlawton

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

Changed my handle over at the other place. 🦋

There's enough usage over there that I plan for it to be my primary location to post to.

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

Changed my handle over at the other place. 🦋

There's enough usage over there that I plan for it to be my primary location to post to.

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

@SStarmeroid @thomasforth Those bags don't count, it's a blend mixed with tea grown in India.

You need the pure collection. Just £50/11g I don't understand why more people don't buy it.

https://t.co/GYBqyYrxny

[John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch]

My wish for the next election is that poll trackers look like the one on the right 👉 not the left

This was yet another election where the polling showed it could easily go either way, but most of the charts just showed two nice clean lines, one leading and one trailing. Bad!

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

@The_Ice_Creamy Agree completely. it's part of why it happens, doesn't mean it's good!

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

I was pretty sure the bias would be lower this election, would be interesting if it now effectively zero.

Maybe if the advantage does totally flip it may be possible to get rid of the electoral college eventually. Though that's much easier said than done.

[Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini]

This would mean ZERO electoral college bias

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

@AdrianBeavis1 Well, because it collapsed slightly more in Dem states than GOP states.

Collapsing equally everywhere wouldn't change the bias.

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

@The_Ice_Creamy It's in part by election rules being able to differ state by state too, so postal votes done even need to arrive on election day, just postmarked

If you know you don't even have the votes, why count quickly? Especially if you're California and you know your states called early

[Hunter📈🌈📊 @StatisticUrban]

Tim Ryan --> loss

Tim Kaine --> loss

Tim Walz --> loss

Clear message from voters. No more Tims.

[John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch]

Just to clarify: this isn’t just the first time since WW2 that all incumbent parties in developed countries lost vote share.

It’s the first time since this data was first recorded in 1905. Essentially the first time in the history of democracy (universal suffrage began in 1894).

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

Can we just get a bit of stability at some time please.

[Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall]

Meanwhile, in Berlin, the German government has just collapsed.

The Chancellor Olaf Scholz has confirmed he will seek a confidence motion in the new year to trigger a snap general election.

Starmer’s Labour may quickly find itself pretty lonely on the social democratic front…

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

Off to a great start.

[Full Fact @FullFact]

At her first #PMQs as Leader of the Opposition, @KemiBadenoch claimed Labour’s Autumn Budget “did not even mention defence”.

This isn’t correct. Defence spending was referred to multiple times in the Budget document and also in the chancellor’s speech. https://t.co/FV9toE1lur

[Robert Ford @robfordmancs]

Polling is the best tool we have, but it is a tool with known and growing problems and those problems really need attention.

[Lewis Goodall @lewis_goodall]

Trump becomes the oldest president ever inaugurated.

The first president elected for a non-consecutive term since Grover Cleveland.

The only president re-elected after a successful impeachment, let alone two.

The only president to be convicted of a crime, then re-elected.

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

This failed me in July... should of made sure I stuck with it better for the US election.

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

My general rule "If there's a polling error is will likely be in the opposite direction of conventional wisdom".

Meaning I currently expect (far from certain) any polling error to benefit Labour.

It's good to try and improve, but that can end up baking in incorrect assumptions.

[Andy Lawton @ABLPoli]

Yes shut down polling because it was broadly correct and the models build on it suggested this outcome was one of the likeliest...

But no we should rely on the entirely soft data which made people think "the polls are wrong Harris will beat them"

[Kevin Meagher @KevinPMeagher]

Well, perhaps we can all agree on one thing: The entire opinion polling industry might as well shut down for good.

[Owen Winter @OwenWntr]

You spend months saying "there are thousands of different combinations that could happen!" and then the result is literally the most common one https://t.co/DqhfT1b2eF

[Adam Bienkov @AdamBienkov]

Well he's certainly got some convictions

[Susie Dent @susie_dent]

Word of the day is ‘recrudescence’ (17th century): the return of something terrible after a time of reprieve.