ACFB

Football tipster 15% ROI and 400U+ profit over 2800+ posted bets

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

Went bloody close either way😂
1 Vazquez shy (and with 4 Ahanor won)

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

Seems to be happening more often nowadays when using the same player for different parts of a bet, but why does adding extra parts see the odds drop?

The exact same bet with an extra 3.25 line (Ahanor won) added actually sees the odds shrink😂 Just silly when trying to punt on higher odds bets.

Not even like Ahanor won directly impacts any of the other lines etc,
Annoying.

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

Highly recommend @NapoliTickets, really simple process and plenty of seat options at a decent price👍

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

Quality few days away in Naples, great city and a comfortable Napoli win😍

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

A gutting end to the Coppa Italia Outright that looked like it was going all the way to the final💔

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

@BaggerBets @SGFootballTips @TheMooseTips @OptaJoe @OptaAnalyst They do whatever they want, am definitely seeing lots more being given and removed nowadays though🤷🏻‍♂️

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

@BaggerBets @SGFootballTips @TheMooseTips @OptaJoe @OptaAnalyst https://t.co/4InZpmSBsw

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

I don't often complain about opta's stat decisions, and I had every intention of not posting for a while, but feel this is at least worth a mention👍

I was on Vitinha under 2 tackles yesterday, and unfortunately the bet lost with him ending on exactly 2.
This morning I had a look at the tackles made as per Opta (3rd pic from WhoScored shows where they occurred on the pitch)

I then had a look at the tackles in question during the match, and whilst the tackle in minute 42 is fine, the one in minute 32 feels very questionable to me.

The attached video shows the alleged tackle, where Vitinha challenges Lautaro Martinez for the ball.
Using parts of Opta's defined definition of a tackle (Pic 2),

•'When a player connects with the ball in a legal, ground-level challenge' this one is pretty ambiguous as I've seen aerial challenges get given as tackles before.

•'The tackled player must be in controlled possession of the ball'

I'm not sure either applies here, and I certainly don't believe you can clearly say Lautaro is in 'controlled possession' of the ball.

Whilst I have no expectation in the decision being overturned here, I just feel there's plenty of people on betting twitter who'd appreciate a bit more clarity on instances such as the above.

@OptaJoe @Orbinho

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

@BaggerBets @SGFootballTips @TheMooseTips @OptaJoe @OptaAnalyst You can, but I don't think that is a tackle

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

Whilst I'm not saying the bet itself is a terrible pick, there is a fair amount to unpick here with the writeup, and that's ignoring the fact the bets been posted 2 days early with him expecting the prices to be instantly obliterated as they were🥴

⚫-"Who plays centrally like Pisa's Canestrelli"-
Canestrelli will not be Pisa's central centre back, he either plays on the left or the right of the back 3.
Caracciolo is the club captain, and the 35yr old will be the central one of the trio. Fotmob shows them the wrong way around last week, whereas every other time they play together it's correct. For relevance SofaScore has more accurate heatmaps + positions than Fotmob the majority of the time, given the heatmap feature is a new addition on there.

Canestrelli has started in the centre of defense in just 2 of his 27 starts this season, and with both Albiol and Caracciolo being available for selection this weekend he will almost certainly be wide again.

With him being wide and very likely the left centre back, it means his recent 'LCB fouls won away to Como' should read 1,1,0,1. Again fine stats wise, but not as good as made out to be.

⚫-"winning fouls... He won multiple in Pisa's last match"-
He didn't, he won just the 1 foul against Cagliari, which is consistent across various stat websites. Obviously still wins his main bet, but it's wrong to say he won 2.

⚫-"Canestrelli averages 0.6 fouls drawn P/90"-
Will depend over how many recent games he's looking at, but I'd rather look at his fouls won record over the season.
25/26 Canestrelli averages 0.52 fouls won p90 minutes
25/26 AWAY only - Canestrelli averages 0.46 fouls won p90 minutes

Again, not trying to say the bet itself is poor (it is at current prices), but this is a tipster account with over 700k followers, it's naive to think his prices will hold on a player prop, especially one posted 48 hours before a match. You can see from his subsequent posts that less than 100 people got on the 1+ foul won line on PaddyPower.

The bigger issue is the lack of in depth research done into the reasoning for the bet, instead just a brief glance at Fotmob seemingly being enough for the whole positional reasoning.

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

Yep, the so called casual punters perhaps won't suffer so badly with account issues and the whole palava taking early props can bring so I tried to avoid mentioning that.

The average punter won't be the ones checking the stats though, they'll assume the tipster they're following will be doing the correct research for them, something which hasn't been done in this case

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

Whilst I'm not saying the bet itself is a terrible pick, there is a fair amount to unpick here with the writeup, and that's ignoring the fact the bets been posted 2 days early with him expecting the prices to be instantly obliterated as they were🥴

⚫-"Who plays centrally like Pisa's Canestrelli"-
Canestrelli will not be Pisa's central centre back, he either plays on the left or the right of the back 3.
Caracciolo is the club captain, and the 35yr old will be the central one of the trio. Fotmob shows them the wrong way around last week, whereas every other time they play together it's correct. For relevance SofaScore has more accurate heatmaps + positions than Fotmob the majority of the time, given the heatmap feature is a new addition on there.

Canestrelli has started in the centre of defense in just 2 of his 27 starts this season, and with both Albiol and Caracciolo being available for selection this weekend he will almost certainly be wide again.

With him being wide and very likely the left centre back, it means his recent 'LCB fouls won away to Como' should read 1,1,0,1. Again fine stats wise, but not as good as made out to be.

⚫-"winning fouls... He won multiple in Pisa's last match"-
He didn't, he won just the 1 foul against Cagliari, which is consistent across various stat websites. Obviously still wins his main bet, but it's wrong to say he won 2.

⚫-"Canestrelli averages 0.6 fouls drawn P/90"-
Will depend over how many recent games he's looking at, but I'd rather look at his fouls won record over the season.
25/26 Canestrelli averages 0.52 fouls won p90 minutes
25/26 AWAY only - Canestrelli averages 0.46 fouls won p90 minutes

Again, not trying to say the bet itself is poor (it is at current prices), but this is a tipster account with over 700k followers, it's naive to think his prices will hold on a player prop, especially one posted 48 hours before a match. You can see from his subsequent posts that less than 100 people got on the 1+ foul won line on PaddyPower.

The bigger issue is the lack of in depth research done into the reasoning for the bet, instead just a brief glance at Fotmob seemingly being enough for the whole positional reasoning.

[🎩 Andy’s Football Tips @AndyRobsonTips]

💎 Sunday morning Gem Bet

👉🏼 Simone Canestrelli fouls won
🏟️ Como v Pisa

Price on 365 (v Paddy Power) - so I'd go with the latter to get value.

• 1+ fouls won - 1.30 (v 1.91)
• 2+ fouls won - 2.37 (v 4.50)
• 3+ fouls won - 5.50 (v 15.0)

As I mentioned in previous write up on Como, they're great for fouls and average over 14 per game.

A lot of fouls come from the attacking players and that was evidenced in Como's last home match against Roma.

Roma play three at the back and all three of their centre halves were fouled. Mancini (Who plays centrally like Pisa's Canestrelli), was fouled twice.

Canestrelli will likely be against three forwards with great fouls averages.

Nico Paz who averages 1.76 fouls committed per 90, Martin Baturina who we now know well averages 1.20 P/90, and Anastasios Douvikas who's a striker who features from the bench a lot has committed eight fouls in his last four - four of those fouls from the bench.

Canestrelli averages 0.60 fouls drawn P/90, and Paddy Power have likely based the price on that, missing all of the key context around his position and who he'll be facing.

With that said he has been winning fouls in recent weeks. He has won a foul in each of his last three matches and he won multiple in Pisa's last match against Cagliari.

Stats for the central defender in Como's last four matches at home against sides who's played three at the back:

• v Roma - Mancini 2+ fouls won

• v Inter - Acerbi 1+ fouls won

• v Lecce - Gabriel 1+ fouls won

• v Atalanta - Scalvini 1+ fouls won

The referee Luca Pairetto is an interesting one too. If you take out referees who've only officiated one game, he's the third-best referee in the entirety of Serie A for fouls, averaging a massive 28.56 per game.

He's also strong for cards as it goes as he's averaging bang on 6.00 per game.

Anyway, Canestrelli fouls won. It looks a great Gem ahead of the weekend and I wouldn't be shocked if the odds start to crumble not long after I have posted this.

Let me know what you think.

18+, gamble responsibly

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

✅✅✅
Lovely Friday night Including a 76.0 winner over in 🇮🇹

Lovely set of winners there in the telegram (link below), Strefezza a joy for betting on.
Brilliant matchup v Coco and they've done the business fouling each other.

Still trying to keep it at a smaller volume but nice to get the first longshot over the line😄
Full reasoning as usual and taken close to KO

https://t.co/yK2rKKEAP7

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

Been a good while🙂

https://t.co/4XS5LMUEmh

Free telegram, very small volume of bets to begin with just kinda seeing how it goes again.
Appreciate anyone who joins♥️

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

Benfica that is unbelievable 😂

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

@DeanWoodward You need to add Cambiaghi to win 1+ foul to make the odds worth it👍

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

@Rhitz_Betting Sad to see another good tipster go for similar reasons.
All the best and hopefully return in the future 🤞

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

@OIiNixon Cheers man we'll see, no interest to at the moment 😂
Hope your own group keeps up👍

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

*Twitter update*

I have made the decision to close my paid group and take a step back from tipping for now.

The tipster space is more congested than ever with all of the services making stats more accessible, coupled with Bet365/Flutter prices and limits being in an abysmal state it's making it increasingly difficult to find bets as a props tipster.
Aspects like SuperSub making prices lower, more tipsters than ever tipping bets, or the aforementioned weaker markets by the bookies, it's a combination of the three and they all have an impact.

I've noticed I'm having to add an extra leg to some bets, and even if the stat has a 95%+ success rate, when it then loses and costs a bet it's infuriating and has happened on several occasions this past month alone.
Previously Bet365 was great for 2 leg bet builders on a game, now you're looking at 3 solid stats to scrape evens, much worse value even with the benefit nowadays of SuperSub.

Since beginning the paid service I tried to stick to what I thought would make it fairest for members.
• Only tipping on lineups, tracking at lower odds if prices saw a small drop (annoyingly happened on at least 50% of bets) and voiding bets where the price dropped a large amount etc.

I've done my best to stick to that, even if I've hindered myself on prices by waiting until lineups on player props. This was always important for me, especially in Italy where lineups often throw up surprises, as I didn't want to be advising cashouts and voiding when I could just have waited.

To be clear, I'm not trying to say people tipping early are 'bad', as obviously if everyone tipped on lineups the prices would crash harder then, but there's people going earlier and earlier all to show they're the first on specific markets, all leading to the price dropping way in advance of the match.

Whilst I won't be posting tips/bets anywhere on telegram or twitter in the immediate future, if anyone ever has a question or wants input into anything then just ping me a message 👍

I massively appreciate all the support and interactions I've had with people on twitter/telegram over the past 2+ years and hopefully you've made some money from my bets♥️

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

@TheMooseTips Him / Kaba / Banda all felt quite nicely priced, just worry Lecce have about 6 shots max.

[ACFB @ACFootballBets]

@matthew_oregan