Adam Jacobs

Slicing and dicing data in demographics, the job market, the economy, real estate and infrastructure | Head of Research at Colliers Canada

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

@BenRabidoux There was an article about this on the commercial side recently, private credit is WAY more available now than 15-20 years ago... there was supposed to be a "wave of distress" but it was buffered by private lending https://t.co/g4BxPxiDsA

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

Given the chaos in Ottawa today, I'm sharing the current status of seats in the GTA... it's not called "Fortress Toronto" for nothing.

Polling from Ipsos has the Liberals (maybe) holding 3-4 seats in the entire Greater Toronto Area

https://t.co/YBEAgWJ7un

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

When does inflation on essentials come back to earth?

We were all happy to see the 2.5% inflation report yesterday... because it guarantees rate cuts next month. But slicing the inflation data, there's still shockingly high growth in essentials: taxes, housing, insurance, food.

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

Enjoyed my first appearance on @CBCNews with @Jacqueli_news this weekend, talking about the office market four years (!!!) after lockdown...
https://t.co/PF5N8eb4hi

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

I feel like the people doing the layout must have a sense of humour. Stories about retail labour shortage, directly next to a story about mass store closures...

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

@danielfoch I know people will hate this answer but... the government needs to get involved. Calgary is making progress on this, because the city will pay $75psf to convert defunct buildings. At some point the benefits of converting exceed that cost to the city.

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

I shared this with everyone at @collierscanada this morning. We seem to be stuck in a loop in terms of policy and the economy. Inflation means we raise rates, which raising borrowing costs, which creates inflation, which means.... you get the idea. How do we break this cycle?

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

This is the story of the CRE market in Canada. Institutions WON'T sell. I am reading a summary of a Canadian pension plan from one of our vendors: "active investor, has acquired 117 properties and sold no properties in the past two years."

Can this continue?

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

I know it's going slowly, but I think rates hikes are having some effect on housing... long way to go still I think.

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

@Tablesalt13 I'm struggling to find any area where inflation is "over"... it sure isn't food, labour, construction, travel/accomodation, services generally, alcohol, etc etc

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

@ronmortgageguy It's a huge part of the slow return-to-office... REALLY difficult to get downtown from even 4-5km away. Streetcars are "replaced" with buses that are half the capacity for 6+ months at a time, watermain replacement on every single street, something's got to give.

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

@d_demelis I completely agree BUT the level of "extend and pretend" allowed is far beyond what we expected... 100+ year amortizations and kick the can to the next century. (that's residential, not commercial unfortunately for us)

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

I wish I were more optimistic about inflation but I think more rate hikes are possible.

I shared this chart with @collierscanada colleagues last week. The @bankofcanada relies more on "common" CPI rather than "headline" CPI. We haven't made as much progress by that measure.

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

Live TV time again! My favorite form of interview... tune in with @JacquelineBNNB on @BNNBloomberg at 4:20pm Eastern. We'll talk office market: construction, vacancy, rents, regional variation and opportunities.

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

Infrastructure project behind schedule? Have you tried duct taping over the overdue completion date? Problem solved!

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

Still new office construction going up in downtown Toronto, it will die down in the next couple years but the cycle isn't done yet

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

@nasmadotali Agree it's a good thing. It's all about sentiment... we went from "when is the rate cut?" to "how many more rate hikes???" in 48 hours. It's not about 0.25%, it's about the expectation.

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

This seems like a reasonable level of construction in downtown Toronto 😟😒😀

[Adam Jacobs @ADJNumbers]

Loved the chance to go in studio and talk lending, return to office and real estate development with @JacquelineBNNB

https://t.co/Bd07fZjFl5

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Bank of Canada hiking again.

I feel the urge to share this chart: Canada today has more private sector debt than Japan at the peak of the 1990s real estate bubble.

Not sure how this ends well for the Canadian real estate market and economy.