AdvancedFootballStats

🏈 Dive into the world of NFL like never before with Advanced Football Stats! 📊 Explore advanced drive stats, game simulations, and season predictions.

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

Been building something: computer vision that turns game film into player tracking data.

Catches and tackles only tell part of the story. Separation, spacing, pursuit angles—that's where football actually happens.

#Football #NIL #CFP #NFL

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

🚨 Drive Efficiency Going into Week 12 🚨

We've updated our numbers to reflect the teams going into Week 12. Check out our latest data, highlighting the top offenses and defenses making every drive count! 📈
#NFL #DriveEfficiency #Week12 #FootballStats

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

🏈 Week 11 Picks Recap! 🏈

We saw our first negative ROI (-2.96%) week this season on total bets 📉 (12/22) 54.5%

If you bet without the O/U (which we have started suggesting) you would have had a 9.2% ROI 📈 going (11/15 ~ 73%)

We had an abysmal showing of Over/Under picks in Week 11 going just 1/7. The over/unders might need some retooling, but generally, negative returns are expected in almost any asset class. It is what it is. We're still up 251% for the season including O/U picks.

#NFL #NFLPicks #sportsbet

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

@StevenCheah Looks like he is about to present you with a screen that starts at 25% tip...

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

Oh @espn, my sweet summer child. You can argue anything these days.

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

All models are wrong. Some are useful.

We do account for the time remaining in the game and how far out of hand the game is at the time the drive starts (garbage time or when the game is unwinnable so the winning team just runs and plays prevent).

Special teams is not accounted for well.

We do control for who played who.

Wins matter for projected standings - which take into account their ability and also their current record and who they will play. In those models, we have the Steelers 8th currently in a dead heat with the Ravens (7th).

So drive efficiency does take into account coaching and gameplan in the aggregate, but you're correct in that we dont do it directly.

You're welcome to disagree with everything, just wanted to give you some more color even if you hate it lol.

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

🚨 New NFL Drive Efficiency Metrics 🚨

We've updated our numbers to reflect the teams going into Week 11. Check out our latest data, highlighting the top offenses and defenses making every drive count! 📷📊💪

#NFL📷 #DriveEfficiency #Week10 #FootballStats

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

We have drive efficiency and drive turnover efficiency noted separately. Here is where we're at on those...

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

🏈 Week 10 Recap! 🏈

We went 18/27 (67%) on NFL picks, delivering a solid 13.64% ROI 📈🔥

Another winning week in the books! Who’s ready for Week 11? #NFLPicks #SportsBetting #NFL #Week10 #FootballStats

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

Should power rankings be completely independent of projected standings? We think so...

Rankings shows if this team played a median apponent 1,000 times what % would they win

Standings shows the predicted final record given the team's stats and who they play for the rest of the season.

Seems like Tom's rankings are looking at a blend of rankings, standings, and playoff likelihood.

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

Starting our week off 2/3 on Thursday night's game.

Moneyline ✅
Spread ❌
Over/Under ✅

Wild game - It helped solidify the belief that we need to account for game leverage... Game leverage would help account for how important the game is and naturally would help control for divisional battles.

Stay tuned for model updates...

#NFL

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

@BenjaminSolak Is this the new Manning/Brady?

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

@mediocregolfing @NBCSports @chargers @SNFonNBC @NFL This accounts for what the score differential is at the time of possession as well as time remaining and if it's a two-minute drill. So garbage time yards are properly accounted for in our models.

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

@NBCSports @chargers @SNFonNBC @NFL Also really important to look at how well the defense is at generating turnovers. We have that controlled for the offenses they've faced too...

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

@NBCSports @chargers @SNFonNBC @NFL If you control for the opponent they have faced, here is how we have them ranked in terms of ability to stop the offenses they have faced from gaining yards:

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

@benbbaldwin We are also able to simulate each game with the efficiency metrics. If we simulate each team against a median opponent 10,000 times, this is what we get for power rankings:

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

@benbbaldwin We look at drive efficiency (both ability to drive and likelihood of a turnover) metrics which have tended to be a little more stable week over week and adjust for who has played who. Not saying it is better, just different and interesting in comparison.

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

@sunny_place644 @MattVerderame 💯

We try to be as transparent as possible with what we get right and what we get wrong.

[AdvancedFootballStats @AFStats]

@SharpFootball We have a metric that controls for the defenses they have faced with efficiency measured in yards gained. Great offense, but not who we have at the top...