Faster Than Expected

Documenting environmental collapse

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

Current global sea-surface temperatures are 6.08 standard deviations above the 1982-2011 mean, or about 1-in-1,700,000,000 (1-in-1.7 billion), assuming a normal distribution and no climate change.

The "new normal" means there is "no normal" anymore.

[Leon Simons 🌍 @LeonSimons8]

🚨BREAKING 🌊🌡📈
Both the @NOAA and @CopernicusECMWF datasets show record high global Sea Surface Temperatures!

Paleoclimate evidence shows that these temperatures could be higher than any time in the past hundreds of thousands of years!

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

We're now on day 83 of record breaking daily global sea-surface temperatures. There's still an outside chance that this year could break the all-time daily record set back on April 24, 2024.

The Climate Casino is taking the Over.

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@EliotJacobson While everyone is paying attention to Nino 3.4, the North Atlantic has returned to gobsmackingly bananas territory.

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@EliotJacobson I'll take over

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@EliotJacobson Over-under on one or more months in 2026-2027 >2c?

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

For those who are not faint of heart, the latest CFSv2 run shows the Nino 3 region peaking at 4.92°C above the 1991-2020 baseline in December.

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@EliotJacobson Just imagine how insane the anomaly is going to be in winter. Weird and sad times.

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@EliotJacobson I gave this a try with ONI instead of the 3.4 sst anomaly with a 1991-2020 baseline.

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

Just another record-breaking day in the moronocene, while peak idiocy still lies ahead.

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@EliotJacobson Here it is using RONI

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@EliotJacobson I gave this a try with ONI instead of the 3.4 sst anomaly with a 1991-2020 baseline.

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@EliotJacobson If you haven't already, I highly suggest checking out Sheldon Solomon and terror management theory. I think you would find it very interesting.

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@LauraMiers Not saying the insane pace we are building data centers isn't adding to the problem, but if we don't focus on the root of the problem, which is fossil fuel use and infinite growth based economics, we are missing the forest for the trees.

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@LauraMiers While I appreciate the sentiment, it is frustrating to see this hyperfixation on AI when it comes to climate change and water resources. We were well on our way to Mad Max before AI, and we would essentially be just as screwed if LLMs never became as big as they are today.

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

The latest Nino 3.4 data.

Yesterday's Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature set the 60th consecutive daily record high for the Nino 3.4 region, and was 0.83°C higher than the previous record for July 28th, which came at the start of the 1997/98 El Nino.

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@EliotJacobson I foresee a y-axis extension for this graph in the not-too-distant future.

[Prof. Eliot Jacobson @EliotJacobson]

Here's the latest Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly forecast, along with 90% confidence interval, with data from CFSv2.

The forecast shows a maximum anomaly of 4.23°C over the 1991-2020 baseline in November.

We're now returning you to your regularly scheduled doom.

[Zeke Hausfather @hausfath]

With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s – and potentially by a truly mind-blowing margin. The median estimate is now 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record (2.75C).

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@EliotJacobson *tropical surface air temp

[Faster Than Expected @AI_imagineX]

@EliotJacobson I think we are due for a surface air temp update. not sure if its code UFB yet or just code yikes.