Serenity

Only on X, don’t trust fake accs

AI/Semi Supply Chains Research

Nothing is investment advice. No paid promos; may trade/hold names disc, views my own.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

How

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Goldman Sachs in their recent note upgraded their global optical module market forecast to:

- $67.7 billion (+33% revision) for 2026
- $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027
- $148.5 billion (+115% revision) for 2028

For $NVDA Rubin Ultra, GS increased its modeled optical modules per GPU:

1.6T: 0 -> 2
3.2T: 3 -> 5

GS also raised their 1.6T and above forecast for 2027 by 61%... so that's also very material, with 80% silicon photonics penetration rate estimated.

So more optical content per chip = a lot more CW lasers, more SOI substrates, happy optical companies.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

@penghu_psp bro I didn't spend all my time to find DDR2 ESMT prices and map it to random cameras out on the market

for u to tell me phison is better without ur reasoning

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Okay I know this is US time and this is a Taiwan stock...

But I really am starting to think $ESMT (3006) can cook like $SNDK. And I’m excited.

So hopefully in a few months, people can something say similar...

FUN FACT CHAT:

Did you know.. 1 old DDR2 memory chip is.. ~$0.96? (from LCSC data)

Obviously different per spec since some can be $2.5...

But if you 3x ASP Hike this.

That's a whole... ~$2 added to final BOM cost.

So about the same cost as a $COST hot dog.

It goes into things like a D-Link security camera, maybe like $33 final cost...

and adds like $2. (which people won't mind)

But... 3X ASP hike to ESMT? Is very, very material.

That's just for one product category, and there's many others from SLC NAND (eg. +120–170% H2) to NOR Flash products for H2 ASP hike projections.

And my favorite thing is, they've already shown they're willing to partake in the price hike games (seems like there's a long way to go)…

Currently they make ~$111M net income a month from July earnings ($2.8B MC), which annualized is like ~2.1X P/E. *I have positions.

So... I think $ESMT has room to cook like masterchef Sandisk.

TLDR:
- Repeated rounds of price hiking = seems absurd for the company's net income... but has potential due to starting low component cost.

- Reminds me of early $SNDK but for other segments (legacy/niche memory).

[ゆきママ @yukimamax]

こんな神株が1ヶ月前に1,000ドルで買えたってマジすか？？？

AIバブル��壊煽ってた人おりゅ？おりゅうううううううううう？？？

サンディスクは沈まぬ太陽🌞

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

@OInvests My 1 $IREN share is also cooking today.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$NBIS is back, and coming in hot with a new partnership with $PLTR.

Palantir also named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner.

The implications are potentially significant considering Palantir’s existing relations with the US Gov + Enterprises.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Nebius [ $NBIS ] at $86.69 is the purest Neocloud and AI-infra asymmetry left.

This is the highest revenue Neocloud untouched by $CIFR | $WULF and colo providers that has no:

- Plaguing uncertainty that $IREN, $ORCL face from full-stack execution.

- High interest debt that $CRWV, $APLD, and others face.

- Revenue uncertainty at scale with Hyperscaler contracts that $CLSK, $BITF, $WYFI, $SLNH, and others lack.

After the market-wide drop with the AI sector overrun by fear:

Nebius is going forward with: $8B midpoint ARR next year, $4.7B+ in cash, diversification in enterprise clients from ( $META, $MSFT, $ACN, $SHOP, Governments), hyper-growth portfolio companies, and a proven full-stack high-margin business.

With extreme demand, execution uncertainty (margins), and isolation from current issues plaguing the markets with OpenAI contract dependency and credit tightening:

Nothing even comes close to Nebius in terms of asymmetrical upside.

You are simply just waiting for company execution.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$AMZN signs a new deal with $QCOM, giving Amazon the right to buy a ~$4B stake of Qualcomm through warrants.

At this rate.. Amazon will be more of a semi ETF than $NVDA?

Given their existing equity/warrants with AlChip, $MRVL, $ALAB, $AAOI, and others.

This of course is linked with up to $60B in milestone revenue from Amazon/Qualcomm custom silicon partnership.

Good for both companies, moreso Qualcomm.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

@tcuso14 I still hold the same opinion that $HOOD should prioritize international equities and helping retail compound net worth through portfolio diversification.

Instead of maximizing monetization through prediction markets where retail has lost a ton on aggregate.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Wow, $HOOD has taken minority ownership in Crypto‌.com.

It does feel like the future of the finance industry is slowly consolidating around Stripe/Robinhood.

Especially after the successful expansion of Robinhood Chain, Prediction Markets, and Credit Cards/Banking.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

So $INTC is raising PC CPU prices by 10% apparently in October per Digitimes, which I think markets might appreciate.

The legacy memory trade also just going brrr from August revenues:

-> ESMT revenue up ~+605% Y/Y, 16.4% M/M
Which is interesting given gross margins also rising tremendously too.

-> Etron revenue up +525% Y/Y, +6.4% M/M
Chairman says he sees growth momentum in memory to extend through 2028 or longer, potentially 2030. (which is very positive read through for ESMT given what Etron sells) *own ESMT/Etron

-> Winbond revenue up +289.43% Y/Y, up 2% M/M
Their president says memory supply and demand are expected to be even tighter in 2027 than in 2026.

-> Macronix revenue up +218.5% Y/Y, +5.4% M/M
Says SLC NAND, eMMC, NOR remain tight (kinda known there).

So... if you think your 80%-100% type revenue growth players are insane.

Check out legacy memory (operating income is even more hilarious). There's a few more where ~ modeled forward P/E values of like 2-3 from my estimates.

I personally find the theme a better value investing type idea than your 16 P/E no-growth dividend companies.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Yes, 300m laser capacity H2 2028 seems like a realistic target for $SIVE.

It looks really large relative to global 2026 supply but if you factor if you factor in 100M+ CW DFB coming from Glasgow alone.

And expansion of all the other foundries, it looks reasonable.

They also might have 1 other foundry they might not have mentioned yet (we'll see). Since they've only made announcements for 2 of the 3 external partners they talked about a few years ago.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Glad $SIVE is attending CIOE Shenzen and hope my followers can go too!

If you want my read on current landscape:

-> Chinese pluggable makers like CIG (剑桥科技) are facing severe shortages in 70mW-200mW lasers.

If you look at filings from CIG, they claim "substantially longer delivery times and deposits to secure capacity” along with statements of shortages.

-> Innolight and others were also looking to secure multiple laser suppliers with LTAs recently from their filings.

On the US side of things:

-> $COHR was a major merchant laser supplier before, but largely withdrew from the market after rerouting them internally.

"I do not see any time in the near future where we would be selling Indium Phosphide lasers externally." From their ER transcript.

And then likely turned into a buyer in an already supply constrained market... where

"over the long term, we will have some portion of our datacom transceivers that will be supported by external sources."

-> $AAOI not really known to be a merchant supplier, but said same thing about laser capacity being rerouted towards transceivers. And having to turn away customers for lasers.

-> For $LITE, they still supply lasers but stated: "We are commanding a significant price premium" for CW lasers

$LITE Wupen Yuen: "wherever they can get the laser source, they will use that solution to support their build-out."

So hinting... about customers just finding anything available due to shortages.

-> $MTSI has no meaningful capacity online now, but they're already stating customers are approaching them with urgency to secure CW laser supply.

-> Trendforce reported $AMD and hyperscaler CSPs are aggressively going out to secure CW laser supply to avoid future bottlenecks.

And then you have Europe...

Where $SIVE is coming online with "tremendous capacity available now" from their foundry partners.

With 100M+ laser capacity Q4 2027, and maybe if you look at their 2:1 ratio implying ~200M targeted laser capacity from external foundries.

They also happen to offer the same power range (70mW, 100 mW, 200mW) as the ones currently in shortage by pluggable makers in China.

There's a massive void to fill, so this dramatically increases the chance of converting customers. (esp. Supported by Lumentum statements)

My speculation was that some of the 6 active pluggable engagements were from China?

Which is why they're attending the conference.

So to any of my Chinese followers, maybe you can ask a few questions like:

- if Europe is a laser source geography, if Innolight/Eoptolink/Cambridge are considering $SIVE.
- if they're seeing ASP hikes in lasers, and what CW products are hardest to obtain

If you are attending CIOE in Shenzhen!

[DIZ @MarketMind2344]

Interesting, thought to check how many years $SIVE has attended CIOE Shenzen (seeing as they will be there Sept 9-11) and from my research it seems like they haven't since attended since 2019, when they went as Sivers Photonics.

I might be reading into it too much but it could signal a push in their efforts to get customers/more fab capacity. $SIVE has always been a regular at ECOC the European optical coms conference, but they are making the long trip to CIOE this year as more pressure to focus on silicon photonics comes in from investors...

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I use CIG for read through on Western markets, since they disclosed 5 CW laser supply agreements. But I remember likely $MSFT and $CSCO were optical customers.

Some of the more interesting companies were Nanjing Casela / 南京镭芯光电 (private) and Suzhou Dingxin / 苏州鼎芯光电 (private, but has a public parent via Yongding) for their potential CW laser sources.

But even after that, their filings showed they plan to stockpile CW lasers for next few years to avoid future bottlenecks.

I don't know enough about Cambridge fundamentals to comment on how well they might perform in the future.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

@awodias Thank you! I'll turn my direct messages on for everyone in case people get some interesting responses.

(haven't been reading them for past few months cause too many, sorry).

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I don’t think I want to be in this timeline anymore.

We got AGI with Astra and Hunter Biden $LAPTOP in the same weekend.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

@IkaKnight_ Buffett: Here's why Pepsi is compelling at 16 P/E and why we need to save up $300B+ for the next market correction.

Abel: We're gonna full send it into AI's next bottleneck

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Uhh chat, did we accidentally AI bottleneck-pill Warren Buffett's $BRK.B successor Greg Abel?