Alberto Peixoto

Agri Commodity Trader bringing info that matters to the market.

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

Kenya, like some other countries, sees potential on its sugar production and is trying to "cut down" imports to stimulate domestic production, bia higher taxes.
As we know, higher import taxes lead to smuggling and higher domestic prices! 

Kenya's sugar sector …..

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA) has urged the government to immediately approve sugar exports, arguing that the country has a 1.3 million metric ton surplus following the 2025/26 crushing season.
According to the association, domestic sugar consumption is estimated at

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

There is hope the current Indian Monsoon will bring greater rainfall and more spread-out than has been so far. Let's see 

India's southwest monsoon has strengthened after a slow and uneven start, with a depression over south Jharkhand and adjoining northern Odisha expected to…

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

Is too early to predict well the next Thai cane crop as the area could change a bit and the weather hasnt been that great. 

Thailand harvested 106 mln m/t of cane in 2025/26 up from 92 mln m/t and 26/27 has been estimated  around 95/96 mln m/t.

The past crop was estimated …

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

China is expected to produce 12.7 million metric tons of sugar in 2026/27, up slightly from 12.6 million metric tons in 2025/26
Continued gains in sugarcane production in Guangxi and Yunnan, partly offset by lower beet sugar output. Domestic consumption is forecast to remain …..

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

Urge the Environment Agency to Repair and Reopen Marsh Lock Horsebridge - Sign the Petition! https://t.co/00OAGFdbks via @UKChange

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

https://t.co/wMdmNC3gW8

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

The 25/26 Mexican Sugar prod is estimated to increase by 300k m/t to around 5,1 mln m/t and about 600k m/t higher (surplus) than dom needs. 

The USA is setting imp from Mexico at 200k m/t, therefore 400k m/t extra surplus (Mexico) plus carry over would seek World Market destin

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

Brazil CS sugar stocks will be 1,1 mln m/t lower YoY by Dec 25.

March 2026 sugar stocks will likely be 1,7 mln m/t down YoY and hardly anything in the warehouse (+/- 300k m/t).

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

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[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

USA 25/26 sugar demand has been revised down by 263k m/t, after revisions etc...to 11,115k mt. It peaked at 11,651k mt in 22/23. Inflation, food habits and off course the GLP-1 / GIP “diet pen” caused the drop in cons. Coffee and Cocoa high prices also influenced sugar demand.

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

@StephenGeldart Hello. What’s the view on stocks? If we had all these nett surpluses (some surplus some deficits) where is all these sugars ? India, Brazil, Pakistan are not carrying more stocks right? EU must be similar to prev year. Central America doesn’t seem to be carrying much…tks

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

The Brazilian Sugar line-up rose by 165k m/t to 1,588k m/t. 

We had 277k m/t shipped in the past week and 443k m/t new nominations. 

As we stand April 25 Sugar exports could reach 2 mln m/t.

Brazil exported 1,9 mln m/t in April 24.

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

Indian sugar prod for March 25 was 2,8 mln m/t vs.  4,7 mln m/t mar 24.
As of March 24,8 mln vs. 30.2 mln m/t as of Mar 24 end result may be close to 26 mln m/t, down 6 mln m/t. 

Nr5 K/Q is up but the front month still has "a lot" of Spec longs that will roll to Aug

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

As the Chinese Gov put a “stop” to the imports of liquid sugars, at least for the time being, Thailand is “suffering” at the wrong time i.e. the crop is mostly in and Millers need demand for their sugars.

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

The Guatemalan Cane harvest reached 66% by the 9th of March. The 24/25 cane crop is estimated at 25 mln m/t and Sugar at 2,6 mln m/t, similar to last year. 

Guatemala is expected to export min 500k m/t of Raws and max 800k m/t of whites in 24/25 (Nov 24 / Oct 25).

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

Mexico harvested  about 51% of the estimated Cane crop which is estimated to be 1,26% higher than last year. Usually by this time, Mexico would have harvested about 60% so, is the crop even lower than expected or just slower? Sugar prod is estimated at 4,8 m/t or lower.

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

The USA Coffee Industry (Roasters, Consumers etc...) are asking the US Gov not to impose Tariffs on Coffee from Mexico and Canada, which is already trading at 165% more than "usual" although it has been higher. 

Will the Sugar industry do the same?

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

The USA is will prod 8,5 mln m/t of sugar and consume 11,3 mln m/t. So, 2,8 mln m/t would need to come from somewhere. Mexico was expected to export600k m/t, TRQ Raws 1,4 mln m/t and the balance under some “special” programs and higher duty sugar imports making up the balance.

[Alberto Peixoto @AP_Commodities]

Philippines, with the estimated 389k hectares and an Agri yield not better than 54 m/t per hectare and the sugar content down 11%, well the final Raw Sugar production may not be better than 1,7 mln m/t. 
Domestic demand is estimated at 2,2 mln m/t.