Há muitas decisões que são tomadas que mais tarde percebemos que o decisor tinha pouca relação com a Matemática: Optimizaram receitas e audiência imediatas, mas não atribuíram valor suficiente ao posicionamento, à exclusividade e à longevidade da marca.
Em teoria dos jogos, esse fenómeno é ensinado e explicado. A MTV optou por aquilo que parecia dar mais dinheiro e que era o futuro. Mas esqueceu-se do "Lindy Effect" da música como arte e de que estávamos a ir pra uma era onde qualquer um podia fazer reality show. Logo, o que parecia ser estratégico, deixou de ser vantajoso. É como fazer o bem onde todo mundo faz o bem, ou fazer o mal onde todo mundo faz o mal. Não há margens de vantagem e lucro exponencial.
Não basta prever para onde o mercado vai; é preciso prever qual será a nossa vantagem quando todos chegarem lá. E isso, isso é o que também se aprende quando namoramos a Matemática.
Compete where you are overqualified to compete. Once it is too easy, move one level up where you can still win, but it's a bit harder. Keep doing that.
You are not growing if it's not a bit hard, but you stay motivated when you win.
Existence itself is a miracle - the rest is science.
There is no single meaning to existence - if there were, we’d be slaves to it.
Within existence, there are rules of logic and science. If it was magic, the world would be un-navigable.
Truly the best of all possible worlds.
Coding is weird nowadays - I spent all day just writing and validating a plan, and then everything gets coded in 20 minutes. The plan is now the coding, not the coding.
I still can’t figure out why Gemini struggles to compete with Claude and GPT.
- Owns Chrome
- Backed by Android
- Stores most search results
- Holds ~95% search history
- Google has the biggest user data
- Even incognito data isn’t fully private
So what’s the problem?
There is infinite capital in the world, but to be in financing means that you concentrate capital. You concentrate it where you get the very best return. You can't spread it around, you got to focus it.
But we ain't all got the pathway be some big shot financeer.
Ya see though, it's the same thing with focus, and we all got infinite of that. You get to choose where you concentrate your focus. And that had to be where you get the most return. It's all kinda the same thing, just that one's a job and the other is your life.
I think when Charles Bukowsk said “find something you love and let it kill you”, he meant something similar.
When we commit to something that reality matters, every pain is bearable.
If you are in the lending business, you can be lucky and get a lot of capital for free that you can then give out at some interest rate. But that will not infinitely grow. At some point the people giving you money want a return. Others will offer them a return, and they will go.
The faster technology moves, the more I think about Bezos' question
What won't change in the next 10 years?
Things I've been writing down over time:
- Humans will always need shelter, food, energy, and healthcare.
- The desire for ownership and the accumulation of wealth.
- The physical world will move more slowly than the digital one.
- Every increase in technological capability, especially AI, will require more energy.
- People and businesses will continue to need access to capital.
- Capital will continue to seek returns that exceed inflation.
- Underwriting methods evolve, but demand for credit (loans) is persistent.
- Trust remains scarce and becomes increasingly valuable as content, code, and fraud become cheaper.
- Verified identities and reputation becomes more important as information becomes abundant and synthetic.
- Long-term wealth creation and dynastic (multi-generational) thinking predate modern technology, and will persist.
- Coordination and transaction costs never fully disappear; market friction will continue to justify the existence of firms and intermediaries.
- People will continue to compete for status.
- Consumers will pay a premium for products and services that confer status.
- Time remains fixed at 24 hours per day.
- But attention is a finite resource and an enduring constraint.
- Products that credibly save time (or enable delegation) have a perpetual market.
- Inaccessible, proprietary data will be a persistent moat. The more inaccessible and difficult to aggregate, the deeper the moat.
- People want accountability, recourse, and clearly identifiable responsibility when things go wrong.
- Regulation consistently lags technological innovation.
- Compliance requirements, licensing, and regulatory moats persist even when machines can perform the underlying task.
- Local knowledge remains valuable and difficult to replicate.
- Heterogeneous markets (like real estate) continue to reward people with deep contextual understanding.
- Incumbent organizations tend to underinvest in disrupting their own businesses, which always creates opportunities for challengers.
Bezos' insight on what wouldn't change in 10 years was "Customers will always want lower prices and faster delivery."
It's boring/ true, but I think that's the point.
Everything we build today can and will be rebuilt more cheaply, faster by someone else.
Build on the invariants, not the trends.
What have I missed?
There is a picture of Kwame Nkrumah and Patrice Lumumba standing together.
Nkrumah liberated Ghana.
Lumumba liberated the Congo from Belgian rule.
Both were removed by coups staged by their own people.
One was murdered. One died in exile.
The most dangerous place to stand in history is ahead of your time.
That is precisely why a country going through a socioeconomic transition needs stiff, firm, authoritarian, nationalist bastards as its leadership - not "democratically elected" people who are subject to votes from these miserable idiots who go digging for gold on an expressway.
Lee Kuan Yew told us decades ago that when his government built high rise apartments to take poor Singaporeans out of bamboo shacks, they deliberately began peeing in the elevators and taking countermeasures against the government's attempts to stop them from messing up their own infrastructure. They had to humiliate and punish people brutally before they started acting in ways that were beneficial to their own lives.
If you want to uplift poor, colonised people, you will have to do it AGAINST THEIR WILL. Colonised people are not sane and a revolutionary must not pretend that he is up against sane, rational people who want a better life. A colonised man will steal expensive paint and empty it out into a river so that he can sell the plastic buckets and use the peanuts to play BetPesa. He will dig up his country's first high speed motorway that is going to add hundreds of millions of dollars to everyone's collective pocket, so that he can find gold nuggets and sell them for $650. He will vandalise railway lines that are meant to improve his own life so that he can sell the metal to a scrap dealer and use it to buy some pussy that night.
Colonised people are among the biggest dangers to themselves and the countries they inhabit, and any leader wishing to improve his country's material conditions despite the presence of millions of colonised people who are out of their natural minds, must be prepared to go the Stalin, Mao and Lee Kuan Yew way. Re-education camps, public flogging and forced labour so offenders can repay their debt to society.
China was once burdened with millions of useless idiots like this, but deliberate state policy removed them from the census and transformed China into the world's most successful civilisation. Hard decisions must be made in pursuit of development.
Success has no formula except for grace. I’ve seen all sorts of people succeed. I have seen hard-working people succeed, and I have seen lazy people succeed. I have seen the truthful win and liars triumph. Seen the poor get rich, and the rich get even richer without explanation.
Anyone telling you to be ruthless at the time you mostly need kindness is an idiot. Likewise, anyone who tells you to confront a sworder with poetry is a moron. The most important thing you must do in life is to tell yourself the truth about yourself always.
Just put your head down & build.
That's the only score that matters: build something.
Leave something behind.
Build something bigger than yourself.
At the end of the day, the only score that matters is the answer to the question “what have you built?”
Os meus avôs, tanto paternos como maternos, não estudaram. No entanto, o meu pai é o primeiro wi da família a licenciar-se (Engenharia Civil) e a minha mãe é a primeira a se doutorar (em Medicina) na família.
Hoje, estou aqui... Imaginem só como é que seria a minha vida se os meus avôs tivessem decidido dar visão aos meus pais?! Como é que seria se os meus avôs não tivessem levado a sério a educação apesar de eles mesmos terem sido privados da mesma?
Aliás, em que momento é que começamos a banalizar a educação ao ponto de se perguntar se vale a pena estudar ou não?! Assim memo eu seria o que sou se tivesse aprendido a ler apenas e corrido atrás do speum?!
Será que eu teria as mesmas chances se os meus pais não tivessem passado o que lhes foi passado? Assim memo a educação já deixou de mudar drasticamente a vida das pessoas até esse ponto?
Quando é que a política angolana voltará a levar a sério a educação deste país?