Adrian Ryan

I Follow Rivers

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@cowincrisis @JohnEdwardLee @RefComeOn

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Twenty million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.

Today the number may be zero.

Not because Iran mined the water. Not because a tanker was hit. Because Lloyd’s of London picked up the phone.

War risk underwriters began canceling policies for strait transits hours after Operation Epic Fury launched. The Financial Times confirmed premiums surging 50 percent. Baseline war risk sits at 0.25 percent of hull value. For a hundred million dollar tanker that is 250,000 dollars per voyage. At peak escalation rates, one million per transit. Vessels linked to American or Israeli interests are becoming uninsurable entirely. No price. No policy. No passage.

The KHK Empress was loaded with Omani crude heading for Basra when it executed a U-turn mid-strait and redirected to India. The Eagle Veracruz halted at the western approach carrying two million barrels of Saudi crude bound for China. The Front Shanghai stopped off Sharjah with Iraqi crude destined for Rotterdam. Nippon Yusen ordered its entire fleet to avoid Hormuz. Greece told its merchant armada to reassess passage. Hapag-Lloyd suspended all transits.

None of them were fired upon. Every one of them got the same call.

More than fifty million years ago the Arabian plate collided with the Eurasian plate and compressed the Persian Gulf into a basin that drains through a single geological bottleneck twenty one miles wide. Twenty one percent of global petroleum. Twenty percent of all seaborne LNG. One fifth of industrial civilization’s energy supply forced through a tectonic accident narrower than the English Channel, bordered on one side by the country whose supreme leader was killed yesterday morning.

The USS Abraham Lincoln carries enough Tomahawks to sink every IRGC patrol boat in 48 hours. Operation Praying Mantis crippled Iran’s operational naval forces in eight hours in 1988. The Fifth Fleet has rehearsed this scenario for decades.

None of that matters. Aircraft carriers cannot force an underwriter to rewrite a policy. Tomahawks cannot lower a premium. The most powerful navy in human history cannot make a Lloyd’s syndicate decide that a VLCC transiting Iranian coastal waters represents an acceptable risk on a Saturday afternoon when missiles are landing in Dubai.

Goldman Sachs estimates Brent could peak at 110 dollars per barrel. JP Morgan projects 120 to 130. At those levels every airline bleeds cash. Every central bank watches three years of inflation fighting reignite overnight. Bypass pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE handle roughly three million barrels. Hormuz handles twenty million. The math does not close.

Iran figured out something the Pentagon still has not.

You do not need to close a strait. You just need to make it uninsurable.

https://t.co/BrzGRrU3VW

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

Lebensraum

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@sentdefender JD Vance is a serious handicapped individual

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@jpkerrigan A more united EU is where we need to be looking

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@BTriagain Their history through each US administration is fraught with conflict, the nuclear facility JFK, the USS Liberty as you mentioned, 3.8 billion a year in military aid. I have been trying to fathom why the US remains steadfast behind them, aircraft carrier of the Middle East maybe

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@RefComeOn 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 @Payney0

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@Niall_Boylan You sure climate change wasn't the reason you had to leave your home planet?

[Ah Ref! @RefComeOn]

https://t.co/RQchwJrA9n

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@jpkerrigan @RefComeOn JP, will you stop on about football

[Rudi Kinsella @RudiKinsella]

Worth digging out this full scene from The Wire if you can. 10/10 television and a 10/10 song to go with it. RIP Shane.

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@seanmaloney176 @06Dagr @IanBegley_ That's the stuff!!

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@NoContextBrits @RefComeOn

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@Neilshaughness9 @IrishTimes It's Spanish, not Italian, you pendejo

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@NoContextBrits @seanmaloney176

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@spannerhandsxv @LeonaONeill1 @seanmaloney176

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@HumansNoContext @seanmaloney176

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@RefComeOn YAAHHHH

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@conoron @DublinInquirer @fallon_donal @TCD_Geography @seanmaloney176

[Adrian Ryan @ARyano90]

@Payney0 @RefComeOn What did you say there?