Andrew Sapiro

True focus lies somewhere between rage and serenity.

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

"Genius. It's a word. What does it really mean? If I win I'm a genius. If I don't, I'm not." -Bobby Fischer

[one dozen rats at a keyboard @PanasonicDX4500]

I know it’s become pretty cliche and cringey to talk about at this point but if you’re under like 25 I cannot stress enough how one time Obama wore a tan suit and people spent a week arguing over whether or not it was demeaning to the Oval Office and they were serious about it.

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

@Jerrell2kb @PanasonicDX4500 Obamacare is so popular in the face of our abject failure of a healthcare system (especially among many within MAGA) that that Republicans still haven't been able to get rid of it and/or enact something better. You have zero clue what you're spouting off about.

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

You take out Starlink from SpaceX & this company shouldn't be worth even 1/20 of this valuation. The institutions that are forced to buy/ chase this will be under water for years. Don't get the appeal, definitely wait to buy if you are interested in doing so. $spcx $tsla

[Andrew Kuhn @FocusedCompound]

Finally got my hands on the sell-side analysis that explains why SpaceX is worth $1.75 trillion

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

I never will understand why so many people muck hands rather than show a bluff that might be the winner. As if that information in a single hand could be crucial to you losing down the road, pure stupidity (and/ or laziness?)

[Patrick Leonard 🫡 @padspoker]

OMG what a sick sick hand lol you aren’t going to guess what happens here lol

[Jeremy Judkins @jeremyjudkins_]

Once the new Spider-Man movie comes out, this should hit $1000 a share easily.

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

HOW?!? Look I don't want to make too big of a deal about this but it's just that... #Obsession is pop culture history in the making. I'm just floored by how many near sell outs there are tonight. This is day 19 of release, 20 if you count previews. Just shocked.

[ਜਤਿੰਦਰ ਸਿੰਘ @Itsjat32]

Looks like $6.25M+ 3rd TUE for #Obsession. This is the highest TUE of its run.

1st TUE - $3.64M
2nd TUE - $5.53M (+52%)
3rd TUE - $6.25M+ (+13%)

In terms of tix sold, not too far off from 3rd SAT, the biggest day of run YET.

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

Jat @Itsjat32 just upped his Monday estimate by $500k, almost every time this run #Obsession is surprising to the upside. You just don't see this at the box office. It's supply constrained like I've never seen for such a wide release already.

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

Sunday came in +$1m ahead of estimates for #Obsession to give an idea how impressive the third Monday drop is. This thing is a full fledged phenomenon. I've been paying attention to the box office for a long time, never seen anything like this off a wide release.

[ਜਤਿੰਦਰ ਸਿੰਘ @Itsjat32]

Looks like $4.75M+ 3rd MON for #Obsession. Less than 50% drop from SUN. Likely higher than the 2nd THU !!!

$110M+ cume now. Cruising towards $200M.

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

This is bubble type shit & I dgaf what rationale you use to explain it. It's a bubble (even with real revenue & cash flow). We'll see how long it lasts but Marvell up 17% on a Jensen pump is so dumb. $nvda $mrvl $smh $qqq

[amit @amitisinvesting]

JENSEN AT COMPUTEX TAIPEI JUST NOW:

- Marvell will become the next trillion-dollar company

- Marvell and Nvidia are strengthening their partnership to expand critical networking & connectivity to power AI data centers

Jensen touch...plus 17% 😂

[Nikunj Kothari @nikunj]

All you had to do to make life changing wealth was to invest in ~every public company along the 237

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

Why is software $igv up so much today on virtually no news? Look we get they've been beat up on absolute relative basis but it's just absurd these one day moves. $mdb $twlo $mndy $okta $zs $ddog $net $snow all up 10%+ with many more like $crm $now close behind. $spy $qqq

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

Cheap enough from a size perspective you could have a PE firm take $imax private looking for a better offer. Could easily see it bid at $50+ a share, think the market is grossly under estimating the interest here. Rare commodity with the brand at a high in terms of interest.

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

There's little doubt $imax is heading for a bidding war, one of my favorite stocks in this crazy market right now. A bunch of media tech players will be looking to grab this company at a time when the box office is surging, premium screens at high demand. $cnk $amc $nflx $sphr

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

Don't get how you can nit pick a movie (wide release) that increased two weekends in a row including after holiday, vs another movie in the same genre. #Obsession is HISTORIC, anyone who says different is clueless about its place vs box office successes like Paranormal Activity.

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

#Obsession was made for $750k, no one fucking cares about Focus paying $15m for the rights (which in itself was a massive gamble) and/or the money Comcast/ Universal spent advertising it. Those that try to pour cold water on its unprecedented success are missing the point.

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

The $750k everyone is dividing by isn't the number that actually made the money.

Curry Barker shot Obsession for $750k. Focus then paid around $14M to acquire it at TIFF, and a 2,600-theater wide release runs tens of millions more in prints and advertising. The real cost basis behind that $148M is closer to $50M than $750k.

Still one of the best trades in modern Hollywood. Just not the trade the post describes.

Two different companies are winning here. Capstone financed the $750k production and sold worldwide rights, so their return is the $14M check plus international. Focus is playing the distribution margin, where studios keep roughly half of box office, so a $300M finish nets them somewhere around $150M against that ~$50M spend.

And "most profitable of all time" already has a holder. Paranormal Activity turned $15,000 into $193M, a 12,900x return on production budget. Obsession at $330M on $750k is 440x. Astonishing, and still nearly 30x short of the record.

The number that goes viral is the one that ignores who actually paid for it.

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

Spurs earned it, Wemby now the face of the league. Funny how quickly things change. Knicks don't have much of a chance (weird to say about an 11 game win streak but who was it against?) but you never know.

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

Absolutely fucking insane, #obsession is the craziest box office run this century.

[Luiz Fernando @Luiz_Fernando_J]

ABSOLUTELY BONKERS!
#Focus’ R-rated original horror #Obsession poised to see another weekend increase, shrugging off fellow #Backrooms’ debut at US #BoxOffice!

YouTuber #CurryBarker grossed 8.2M on #2 BIGGEST 3rd FRI of ALL TIME for horror, up incredible +35% from last FRI (vs #SINNERS 9.6M, -26%, #ParanormalActivity’s 7.5M, +11.9%, #TheSixthSense’s 7.2M, -6%), despite adding just+125 theatres yesterday, now playing in 2.780.

It hits a 86.5M cume in the US!

100M+ mark coming TOMORROW.

The film itself had a ridiculously low under 1M production price tag, and #Focus paid only 15M to acquire the global distribution rights from producers (sans France, Russia, Australia & NZ).

Both sides seeing their investment paying off greatly.

I’ll wait until tomorrow to update projections, as I’ve been saying, we might genuinely be looking at an unprecedented 200M+ case here if Focus plays their cards right. Stay tuned 👀

Eyeing a 26M-30M 3rd 3-day weekend

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

The price to rent an Nvidia H200 just collapsed from $7/hr to $4/hr in three weeks.

A -40% drop in the cost of the single most strategic asset in tech.

When the underlying commodity that powers your entire thesis loses 40% of its value in a month, that usually means one of two things: supply finally caught up, or demand was never as deep as the headlines said.

Either way, somebody is selling.

So why is the AI trade still pricing in scarcity?

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

Today is the 13th day of "Obsession" release it's also a Wednesday after a holiday, it's going to have a higher box office than it's opening day true Friday. What else is there to say? A historic box office social media sensation.

[Andrew Sapiro @ASAP17]

I'm not sure people fully understand how crazy this box office run "Obsession" is on. Unprecedented from opening day/ weekend. I checked a local 10:50pm showing for a non holiday 2nd Wednesday, it's basically sold out. Demand way out stretching supply.

[ਜਤਿੰਦਰ ਸਿੰਘ @Itsjat32]

And it gets better.

#Obsession is looking to go UP from TUE today. At the very least it should be flat.

I don’t recall the last time when a wide release managed to grow from discount TUE, sans any holiday support.