ASIS Intelligence

Armada has partnered with MN&A to develop advanced economic forecasting models, delivered in our monthly ASIS briefing.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@RealEJAntoni Makes you wonder if the NBER will go in and classify 2022-2024 as recessionary. Otherwise, the CB LEI may not matter anymore. Never been wrong yet...but maybe a 100 year event threw it a curve ball in this cycle.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@cvpayne Thanks for being so vulnerable and honest about your brother. You are a good man, stay strong! God speed!

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@GordonGChang @gordongchang Also, the Myanmar situation that erupted in October? 57% of global dysprosium and terbium mine supply now under rebel control (rebel's fighting a military coup). Regardless of right and wrong, no talk about risks to global EV and battery production supply chains.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@chigrl Flooded the market with debt. Fed can cut all it wants, but when you double the annual issuance of debt, hard to find investors to chase it at low rates, especially with China in trouble. You jack the yield to attract them and the 30-year chases it. 6.08% to 6.4% in 30 days.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@jimcramer I wouldn't count it out yet, history shows recession hitting as it uninverts...still may not be in the cards this time around after a 100 year event and demographic trends created 80 years ago in the wake of a global war (labor tight and wages stable).

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@SoberLook Remember what happens when it comes out of the inversion...we see gray lines.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@gen_jackkeane @AmericaRpts @SandraSmithFox @FoxNews Great interview as always sir. Adding to your comments on the Red Sea...Drewry https://t.co/BjuBcXNwoF shows the cost to ship a container between Shanghai and Rotterdam up 499% Y/Y. Shanghai to LA +356% and Shanghai to NY up 254%. There's an economic cost to failed policy.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@CGasparino Charlie, I think the Fed was tipped off to possible closure of Strait of Hormuz (it's in the Fed minutes). The last meeting was post Red Sea disruption...but they mentioned another possible trade flow disruption (its either Spratly Islands 66% of trade or S. of Hormuz).

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

4.8M quake 5Km NE of Lebanon, NJ. #earthquake #newjersey

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

The new forecast for March will be relased next week and includes models across 18 sectors covering 80% of US GDP.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

Was nervous about our air cargo forecast in https://t.co/EGuvvAoiie, but it predicted the volatility and nailed it. #supplychain #macroeconomy #construction #aircargo

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@chigrl Not exactly accurate, you need two broken controllers under the TV stand. You didn't throw them away, because you could harvest them for parts...should also be a squirrel-tail comb laying on the coffee table also - because it was poking your back as you rocked that Galaga.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@johnkonrad Forward-haul lanes impacted. "Freight on water longer" has stripped out 20-25% of global excess maritime capacity. Directly hitting Asia-Eurpe trade lanes, but Shanghai/LA rates up 110% Y/Y, Shanghai/NY up 90%. They'll care when it pushes inflation up and confuses the Fed.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@askaya If you want a square meal, eat a waffle.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@ISABELNET_SA Just sharing our model for the truck tonnage index which carries it out 18 months, published in The Watch. Accuracy on this has been batting roughly 95% 6-months out. 22 economic metrics in the model.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@paulkrugman And he knows that long term wage growth is 2.5% and it will revert back to it. To save the 61% of households living check-to-check (about 72 million households), he has to get average inflation below 2%.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@paulkrugman TMPCE is what Powell constantly refers to in Congressional Testimony (he uses the term Average Inflation). He has a point, still way too high.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@RepairTheRuins @harveyrosenblum @chigrl He said it Tongue-in Cheek, but it is a sad truth.

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@TexanQueenB @Radicalnor94930 @BritMartinez True Christianity is pretty simple...

[ASIS Intelligence @ASISIntel]

@elerianm S&P Global (excluding government) tells a different story. Services fell to 50.5 and nearly in contraction. Both are true, but one shows a rapidly weakening private sector.