ASmedegaard

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@mikehoffmann Etsy

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@mikehoffmann Course

[Kuppy @hkuppy]

Typical Day as a Hedge Fund PM

6:00 - Wake up, check what Trump tariffed overnight. Cambodia up +200%, Paraguay -3% (they said thanks).

6:05 - Brew some coffee.

6:10 - Trump tweets that the laws are rigged, since he cannot tariff Arizona. Mentally scroll the portfolio for exposure…

6:15 - Check what happened in Asia and Europe.

6:22 - Trump announces that hot dogs will join the food pyramid. Bans hot dog exports. Fortunately our book dodged that one.

6:30 - Drink some coffee, talk to wife, pray Trump will spend the morning golfing so I can do some actual work….

6:31 - Trump announces that oil at $65 is too high. Threatens anyone who isn’t producing more oil.

6:32 - Top 5 position announces earnings, want to join the earnings call at 7am, but Trump just scheduled a press conference then, and he’s looking unpredictable.

7:02 - Trump announces that Japan can now export golf balls tariff-free, in honor of Abe letting him cheat at golf. Join the earnings call instead.

7:06 - Futures plunge 65 handles in a single tick, frantically leave the earnings call and go back to whatever Trump is still yapping about in his press conference.

7:10 - Scroll through premarket quotes. $NVDA and $PLTR are both up 5% b/c it’s a day ending in ‘Y’ but SPZ are now down 80 handles.

7:15 - Trump changed his mind and SPZ are now up 25 handles as everyone rushes to cover their short. (I re-join the earnings call)

7:30 - Some broker I’ve never heard of just downgraded a top 5 position and it’s down 15% on 300 shares traded. I’m pretty confident it will close around there too. (I crack open a beer as I skim his downgrade report, realizing that nothing productive will happen today…😩😩)

8:00 - An LP calls to remind me of some
ShitCoin he recommended that’s now up 1800% since he recommended it.

8:09 - 10-yr bonds gap down 17 bps, but all I can find is a tweet from Bessent about how great Main Street is doing.

8:15 - Some sell side asshole cold-calls me to see if I want a copy of his upgrade report on the AI sector. Tells me that “it’s going to be big and you don’t want to miss it.”

8:20 - Check my email, do 10 minutes of actual work.

8:30 - Trump threatens Brazil, I realize our BZ exposure is gonna get thumped on the open. (Crack open a 2nd beer)

8:33 - Reminisce about how productive I was, since Biden wouldn’t even wake up until noon.

8:40 - Chat with my CFO for 19 mins about some new compliance form we need to file.

8:59 - Trump Tweets about how stupid Powell is. Futures are back down 30 handles.

9:04 - Join a call 4 mins late with an endowment that wants an update, but 100% will never invest. “BTW - we need you to update the DDQ as we’ve changed our format” 😡😡

9:29 - Casino is opening. Let’s see what happens.

9:32 - I’m bored. Go back to reading emails. Turns out the govt created another new form we ALSO need to fill out…

10:00 - We’re actually up 50bps.

10:03 - Now down 175bps. Trump just threatened to bomb Europe.

10:06 - Tweets he was just joking about Europe. But those guys need to get their shit together bc he might still bomb them.

10:08 - Ready for bourbon. Beer won’t cut it…

10:30 - EIA oil inventory shows yet another massive draw. Oil drops 5% anyway.

10:40 - Don Jr’s latest SPAC rallies 300% on rumors it may launch a new ShitCoin

10:45 - Friend calls to cry about how cheap all his names are. We both agree we were idiots to invest in businesses with earnings.

11:22 - Trump reminds everyone about how much Putin likes him.

11:40 - Realize I’m now too tweaked to sit in the office. Turn off the machines and go get lunch with a friend who’s also gonna bitch about how stupid markets have become.

12:05 - Hostess at restaurant pitches me some ShitCoin. Claims she’s up a few million on it

12:07 - Friend starts bitching about how stupid it is to be an investor under Trump, and how we all made money under Biden. I agree with him, but we both agree it would be even stupider under Kamala…😩😩

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

Today is a "tell your grandchildren I was there" day in the bond market.

10-year yield
At its low today (which was technically last night) it was down 12.5 bps from Friday's close at 3.87%

It finished the day up 19 bps from Friday's close at 4.18%.
---
Instances when the 10-year was DOWN at least 12 bps intraday and closed HIGHER by at least 12 bps that same day.

Intraday 10-year yield dataset starts on October 16, 1998 (almost 27 years).

Only three times
January 23, 2008 = The reaction to rogue trader Jerome Kerviel, losing Societe Generale 5 billion Euros. This was a big deal (witness the gyrations in the bond market) as it was taken to signal that the unfolding financial crisis would be a problem. Seven weeks later, Bear Stearns failed.

November 9, 2016 = This was the day after Trump won election. The low was early the night before (election night).

April 7, 2025 = today
----
There are too few examples to discern market direction (and 2008 was down and 2016 was up).

Rather, it tells us the bond market thinks today was an extremely important day. How? for now, we can only speculate.

I believe today we learned what a recession with high inflation (or stagflation) means. Stagflation recessions now yield 3.85% to 4.00% (10-year). That's it.

When the recession is removed, stagflation becomes just inflation, and a 4% 10-year yield is way too low.

Want to see yields lower than 3.85%? This requires the economy to sink so far that it kills inflation, turning stagflation into just a recession.

At its worst this past week, no one thought the coming recession (if we have one, I have my doubts) would be this bad. So, the market is priced in a stagflation recession, and that is 3.85% to 4.00%.
----
Lastly, regarding the chart below ...

The next Fed meeting is one month from today (May 7).

Last night, at the opening of trading, fed fund futures were pricing an 85% probability they would cut rates at that meeting (15% for no move).

It closed with just a 33% probability of a cut (67% of no move).

Not only was a cut priced out today, but this kind of range in probabilities for a meeting a month away is unprecedented.

[Paulo Macro @PauloMacro]

So here is my thought of the day.

When I was finishing college, internet browsers and search engines were all the rage.

“I like Netscape better because it loads faster and is easier for XYZ”

“Opera is easier to use for ABC”

“IE is glitchy”

“Amaya is getting worse for XYZ”

And then the search engine wars…remember Lycos? Altavista? AskJeeves?? “Yahoo is better for X, I like altavista for Y though”…

I have boned up some on AIAIAI and spoken with several to learn and explore interesting use cases (including with people here which has been super helpful). And I hear the same thing from people using this stuff regularly.

With all my learning I will just summarize as follows:

LLM-based chat bots — Claude, Chat GPT, Gemini, Perplexity, Copilot — are to 2025 what web browsers and search engines were to 2000. Same arc. Same contour. Same future of capital destruction realization.

And NVDA 2025 is *exactly* what Cisco/switch/fiber backbone was in 2000.

Kind of amazing we are doing this all over again because many of these bros were around for the last one. Instead, you have Bill Gates saying it’s different this time. Surreal actually.

[Tim Sweeney @BISradio]

Lindstrom found this video from our 2005 recording of Beats In Space…

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

The only chart you need to understand macro economics and personal finance for the next 30 yrs 👇

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@mikehoffmann Claus

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@mikehoffmann Etsy

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@larskohler @mufazadk @ekelund_martin @martincollignon @LiberalAlliance Giv den her et lyt: https://t.co/KmKEUvl1s0

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@mikehoffmann MM

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@I_Skream @Raatforusoedet følg med her!

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@j_crona @traderstewie And Peter Madsen is danish

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@SlingshotCap 👋

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@PSkaaning @ConteNestor @KraulDR @ChrisEriksen8 Haha ja 😀

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@ConteNestor @KraulDR @ChrisEriksen8 Anders Dues holdkammerat i NFA, Kenneth “tordenstøvle” Jørgensen, var også uhørt god til at sparke friskspark.

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@eric_cloutier @samvoltek He is amazing. Thank you for sharing!

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@Raatforusoedet @MVangby @RTerkelsen @Heunicke @madskolby @johnringst @unknownndane @JeppeElkjaer @NickOlsen4700 @MortenPede @SonofShawkat @caspermeisner @NaeverBK @NaestvedBoldklu @JoakimNormann

[Eric Cloutier @eric_cloutier]

Favorite experience ever...

me : "Derek, what record is this?"
Derek : *maniacal laughter* that one is the groove, that one is the bassline, that one is the vocal.

Three decks, vinyl, remix on the fly, zero mistakes, all class, shooed the haters away all in one breath.

[ASmedegaard @ASmedegaard]

@ClassicFootbaIl @andpourkamali tjek den her