Max Anderson

Bootstrapped SaaS co to 8-fig ARR. Helped take another from 0 to 9-fig rev & NASDAQ IPO. Lucky husband and dad of 2

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

@KoreansWithIL @grok is this true?

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

@ConnorShowler Bro Google gets 300-500B queries / mo

Some result in no clicks, some multiple clicks

AI overviews take a big bite out of informational queries that weren’t worth much anyway

Goog def still dishing out hundreds of billions of good website clicks / mo

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

@ConnorShowler My sites alone had 5M visits from Google last month lol

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

@ConnorShowler These numbers both seem 10-100x too low

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

@marclou Happy bday Marc!

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

@1beohb 7.5% is insanely high with home prices inflated as much as they are

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

1. Homeowners track their estimated home values on Zillow and Redfin religiously

2. Those value estimates are based on recent historical comps of closed transactions

3. The market is frozen so those value estimates aren’t moving down to the true price at which the market would actually clear for a net-new listing put on the market today

4. High overlap between homeowners and stock owners, wealth effect means most homeowners dont *need* to sell. It would just be nice to sell if they could get the high price they think their home is worth

5. Due to frozen market and lack of recent comps to adjust value estimates down, homeowners believe their home is worth more than it actually is, and are enticed to list for “nice-to-have” sales at artificially high list prices

6. Due to overpriced listings the market stays frozen and the cycle reinforces itself

7. A small portion of buyers who *have to* buy do transact at those artificially high prices because they have no other choice

8. This provides just enough signal to keep the value estimates pinned artificially high

Cycle probably won’t break until homeowner move from “it would be nice to sell if I can get this price” to “I have to sell at any price”.

Which likely needs a stock market crash or recession

In the meantime prices will stay high but liquidity very low

[CoFounders Nik @CoFoundersNik]

I majored in Economics and STILL dont get this:
- Rates at 23 year highs (7.5%)
- 63% MORE sellers than buyers
- Home prices UP ~2% this year

Somebody educate me. Why aren't prices coming down?

And where is Michael Burry??!

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

@luckystrike_44 This is already the norm where I live (top 10 metro in the US)

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

Stay poor. Stay retarded.

[Dividend Hero @HeroDividend]

A 7.5% mortgage rate is still better than renting

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

Sell your house and move into an office building

[Triple Net Investor @TripleNetInvest]

JUST IN: A 95k sq ft office building in the heart of DT Denver is set to sell for $2.7M - an INSANE $28 per sq ft

It last sold for $24.5M in 2018 - a staggering ~90% discount in 8 yrs

Here's the crazy part:

The building underwent major upgrades recently, w/ 5 of its 7 office floors already built out and move in ready

And the property sits directly on Denver's iconic 16th Street corridor, which just underwent a $175M renovation

Denver's office market is truly experiencing an apocalypse

Stay tuned and follow for more updates on the office market meltdown

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

Invest what would’ve otherwise been your down payment in stocks / gold / bitcoin

And invest your savings each month from rent being cheaper than mortgage + taxes + insurance + maintenance on the same home

The appreciation of those investments will dramatically outpace any rent raises and you will come out way ahead vs buying

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

Housing prices are primarily driven by:

1. supply vs demand (demographics)
2. interest rates

Re: supply vs. demand

- US population is growing at 0.5% YoY and decelerating

- US housing supply is growing at 1.0% YoY and accelerating

Re: interest rates

- The US government has $40 trillion of debt growing 7% YoY, against $5.4 trillion of income growing 3% YoY

- Debt-to-income ratio of 772%, going to 800%+ next year

- Any corporation with 800% DTI would be considered distressed "junk bond" debt, C or CC credit rating

- The free market prices such assets around 17% interest rates today

"but acktually the US gov can print $ to pay its debt and can force certain price-incentive entities to buy so deserves a better credit rating than a corporation in the same position"

Yes. But to the extent it actually does print $ to pay down the debt, the market responds by selling off bonds, thereby driving up rates, thereby forcing even more printing, in a negative feedback loop that ends in hyperinflation

Meanwhile the share of price-insensitive buyers in the Treasury market is continuing to drop precipitously

As those dynamics play out the price the US gov has to pay on its debt will increasingly approach the price the free market would demand from any borrower with the same creditworthiness

Iotw if you think interest rates are going down over the coming years (let alone decades) you are smoking crack

Buying a home today is financially retarded

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

Yes and renting will beat owning for the next 30-40 years

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

@Monpilo256786 Agreed

Good for society

Just not good for the net worth’s of *existing* homeowners

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

lmao @ "high immigration rates"

immigration rate trending towards zero or negative

death rate trending to pass birth rate w/in next few years

young people who want more housing supply increasing as share of voting population

boomers who want to restrict supply decreasing as share of voting population

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

Yes and renting will beat owning for the next 30-40 years

[Aziz Sunderji @AzizSunderji]

The financial advantage of owning over renting is much slimmer than most people think.

[Max Anderson @MaxAnderson]

@drunkonrumraisn Wrong