Aaron with no Bush

Father, Partner, Optimist, Erudite misanthrope, Social Liberal, Full Contact Capitalist, Fiscal Conservative, Lover of irony, Foolish investor, Betting on me

[Dow @mark_dow]

Trump has won this war 7 times.

He’s negotiated a peace settlement 12 times.

And he’s opened the Strait of Hormuz at least 4 times.

What more do you want from him?

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

The last time an entire monthly candle on the Semiconductor index closed above the upper Bollinger Bands was in… you guessed it, 2000. Add my 10% warning alert it’s currently sitting a staggering 16% above the upper BBs combined with an RSI that has completely left orbit, and you have a setup with zero historical precedent of NOT unwinding in spectacular fashion.

We are going up against 400 years of market data, where every single similar extreme has ended in dire consequences.

This time is no different.

Musical chairs… .

Yours truly,
The Great Martis✨

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Market update

[steve2bacon @steve2bacon]

when my stock recovers from -10% to -5%

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Kevin Warsh realizing inflation’s gearing back up towards 5% while Trump picked him specifically to cut rates

[Mark Palmer @MarketPalmer_]

The older I get, the more I realize making memories with family, a solid fitness routine, a job you don't hate, a group chat of great friends, annual traditions, and a productive hobby will lead to a very happy life.

[EPIC MASCULINE @EpicMasculine7]

You’re bored because you don’t do side quests, bro.

Life is more than just work and bed rotting.

Here are 50 side quests to complete:

[Clinton Donnelly @CryptoTaxFixer]

🚨Another Problem with Capital Gains Tax: The $3,000 Loss Limitation

If you have more losses than gains, the amount you’re allowed to write off is capped at $3,000.

This is called the capital loss limitation.

But here’s the catch: that $3,000 hasn’t been adjusted for inflation. At today’s prices, $3,000 barely covers a month’s rent.

When that rule was introduced back in 1986, $3,000 was a significant amount. It could have covered several months of living expenses. And the intention behind it made sense, to give smaller investors some tax relief for taking the risk of investing and helping stimulate the economy.

But fast forward to today, and inflation has eroded the value of that deduction. Depending on how you measure it, that $3,000 should now be closer to $30,000 to $50,000 in real terms.

So why hasn’t it been updated?

If you're losing money as an investor, you should be allowed to deduct those losses in the year they happen, not carry them forward in tiny chunks that no longer reflect the cost of living or the real size of your losses.

What do you think?

Isn’t it time we brought some fairness back to the tax code?

[Aaron with no Bush @AaronScheile]

@Mr_Derivatives

[Aaron with no Bush @AaronScheile]

Legend

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Ladies and gentlemens, dignitaries, celestial and extraterrestrial beings…Behold the majestic Schiller PE Ratio (currently sitting at a jaw-dropping 41.24.

Yes, you read that correctly.

We are now cruising at altitudes previously reserved for the 2000 Dot-Com blow off top. This isn’t “elevated.” This isn’t even “rich.” This is full-blown, lights-flashing, sirens-blaring bubble territory.

The chart doesn’t lie. We’ve seen this movie before. The last time the Schiller PE flirted with these levels, the market didn’t just correct it face planted from orbit. And right now, with the semiconductor sector already trading at Dot-Com-era multiples, the entire growth complex is basically daring gravity to do its worst.

So while the bulls are still dancing in the streets, the chart is quietly whispering the same dire warning it delivered in 2000

This party has an expiration date. And the hangover is going to be legendary.

Schiller P.E ratio

[Bee 🐝🌿 @BeeAwake1]

😆 Social Media At It's Finest

[David Park @investingdpark]

This speech is on @MohnishPabrai’s wall:

It’s not the critic who counts, it is the man in the arena.

[Brian Stoffel @Brian_Stoffel_]

Lots of moving pieces at $DUOL -- which I tackle below

[Mads @europemaxxed]

I hate my Job
But it pays for Beers
And I need Beers
Because I hate my Job

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Me with $127 in my pocket thinking about the Fed decision tomorrow

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

When $DUOL drops 80%+ but you lean into the pain and buy the dip

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

🚨 American households haven’t felt this bad about the economy in 75 years.

That can only mean one thing…

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

Current Shiller PE Ratio: 40.66 +0.32 (0.80%)

It's now only the second time in history that the globe has ever witnessed the Shiller PE at these valuations. Add the Warren Buffett Indicator hovering in another dimension, and we have the perfect storm.

Watching the semis go parabolic gave me flashbacks of the Dot-com bubble.

But today we have 1,000 times more debt, geopolitical uncertainty, and a 1970s-style inflationary environment.

There is no version of this where we come out unscathed.

Yours truly,
The Great Martis✨

[voided @voided]

You finally understand how the market moves