Abigaeltorre

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Investor demand for Big Tech bonds is fading:

The cover ratio for bond deals from Amazon, $AMZN, Apple, $AAPL, Meta, $META, Microsoft, $MSFT, and Oracle, $ORCL, fell to ~1.7x in July, the lowest since at least September 2025.

This ratio measures how many Dollars of investor orders a bond deal receives for every Dollar of bonds issued.

This metric has now fallen by -3.0 points over the last 5 months.

By comparison, the average cover ratio across all investment-grade bonds stands at 3.4x, or roughly twice as high.

In February 2026, Big Tech's average cover ratio was 4.7x, or 0.8 points above the average of the broader investment-grade market.

This comes as the group has issued $194 billion in debt across different currencies so far this year, accounting for a record ~9% of the total US investment-grade bond supply.

Bond investors are becoming increasingly reluctant to finance the AI buildout.

[amit @amitisinvesting]

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. June U.S. inflation came in much cooler than expected. Headline CPI was 3.5% YoY vs 3.8% expected, while CPI fell 0.4% MoM vs expectations for 0.0%. Core CPI was 2.6% YoY vs 2.9% expected, with Core CPI flat at 0.0% MoM vs 0.2% expected. This marks the first negative monthly inflation reading since 2020.

2. President Trump said he has decided to replace the proposed 20% United States Reimbursement Fee on cargo through the Strait of Hormuz with trade and investment deals from Gulf States into the U.S. He said those investments will be “massive” while also being “extraordinarily good” for the Gulf States and their future.

3. IBM $IBM went down 24% after preliminary Q2 results came in well below expectations. Revenue was $17.2B vs $17.86B expected, up just 1% YoY, with consulting revenue flat and infrastructure revenue down 7% YoY. CEO Arvind Krishna said that in the last few weeks of June, clients shifted quarterly capex toward servers, storage, and memory to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases, while cybersecurity concerns also distracted customers. IBM said it did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization. The stock has lost roughly $65B in market cap.

4. Palantir $PLTR moved from $122 in the premarket to $135 as the market opened. The stock opened down on the $IBM news around software spend shifting toward capex spend and recovered into the open, closing up 3%. $MSFT Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella quoted Alex Karp yesterday in his piece about why the market needs to focus on true enterprise transformation, not just tokens, while Chamath said on CNBC today that Karp “deserves a medal” for being on the right side of history in calling out foundation model companies that take IP without delivering customer value.

5. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh today said in his congressional testimony that he is “doubling down” on the 2% inflation target and believes this Fed will deliver 2% inflation. He added that a broader price stability objective is still in the back of his mind and said the Fed will see if further reforms are needed. Warsh also said he is prepared to do everything he can to ensure the independent conduct of monetary policy.

6. New York is set to enact the first statewide data center moratorium in the U.S., per NYT. Gov. Kathy Hochul will pause approvals for new hyperscale data centers using 50MW+ of power for one year while the state studies energy, water, and environmental impacts. The order takes effect immediately, but does not impact projects that already have required permits. Hospitals, universities, and back-office financial services are not expected to be affected.

7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.1M contracts, $TSLA with 1.4M contracts, $AAPL with 707K contracts, $PLTR with 646K contracts, $INTC with 562K contracts, $MU with 551K contracts, $IBM with 494K contracts, $AMZN with 492K contracts, $MSFT with 478K contracts, and $WULF with 420K contracts.

8. Nebius $NBIS agreed to sell $1B+ of AI compute to Reflection AI through 2029, giving the company access to Nvidia GB300 chips. Reflection AI, founded by two former Google DeepMind researchers, also signed a multibillion-dollar compute deal with SpaceX last month and has reportedly discussed raising $2.5B at a $25B valuation. Nebius already has compute agreements with Microsoft and Meta.

9. OpenAI is developing a screen-free, battery-powered smart speaker designed as a humanlike AI companion and a new home AI computer. The first consumer product is reportedly focused on voice interaction and ambient presence, giving users an AI assistant they can build a connection with. The device includes a camera and other sensors to understand surroundings and context, while tapping into ChatGPT for richer assistance than conventional smart speakers. It can control smart-home appliances, play media, answer questions, respond to messages, help with chores, assist with cooking, and play music as it moves around the home.

10. Aehr $AEHR reported a strong Q4 beat and guided well above the Street. Q4 EPS came in at $0.11 vs -$0.01 expected, while revenue was $18.8M vs $18.69M expected. The company also received $8M+ in new silicon carbide wafer-level burn-in orders as EV programs ramp, including a follow-on WaferPak order from its lead SiC production customer and a direct order from one of the world’s top two automakers to qualify SiC suppliers for next-gen EVs. Aehr said its lead customer indicated additional capacity needs this fiscal year. Most importantly, $AEHR guided FY27 revenue to $130M–$150M, far above the Street at $85M.

11. Big banks reported a very strong Q2, with Goldman Sachs $GS, Bank of America $BAC, JPMorgan $JPM, and Wells Fargo $WFC all beating expectations. Goldman was the standout, with revenue of $20.34B vs $16.35B expected and EPS of $20.98 vs $14.45, driven by a massive 53% YoY jump in Global Banking & Markets and a 72% YoY surge in Equities S&T. Bank of America beat on revenue and EPS, with trading revenue ex-DVA up 33% YoY. JPMorgan posted revenue of $58.02B vs $51.39B expected and EPS of $7.70 vs $5.72, though NII was roughly in line. Wells Fargo also beat, with revenue up 9% YoY, EPS up 25% YoY, and net loan charge-offs coming in better than expected. Overall, the quarter showed stronger trading, resilient credit, and better-than-expected earnings power across the big banks.

12. South Korea is seeing an unprecedented foreign investor pullback. Overseas investors have dumped $110B of Korean equities so far this year, already far beyond the prior 7-year full-year high of $22B in 2021. The selling intensified in June, when foreigners unloaded $31B, the biggest monthly outflow ever recorded. At the same time, local buyers have stepped in aggressively, with domestic retail investors purchasing $60B and institutions adding $15B since May began. The pressure is now spilling into leveraged retail accounts: as of July 13, 1.2M Korean margin accounts had triggered margin calls, with roughly 320K–360K accounts fully liquidated by brokers.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

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