Abraham Gertz

MA in Government @LauderSchool_RU

[Paul Poast @ProfPaulPoast]

Wars are connected, as one directly leads to another or creates conditions for another

Consider:

Ending Iran v Iraq War ->
Started Gulf War ->
Iraq Invasion ->
Allowed Syria War ->
Enabled Ukraine War ->
Enabled Gaza War ->
Sparked Lebanon War ->
End Syria War

[John Spencer @SpencerGuard]

The Middle East is forever changed.

- Iran has shown it is weak even in internal defense.
- Iran has lost Syria.
- Iran lost Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel set the group back decades.
- Iran lost Hamas in Gaza. It will never have power again.

Time to set Iran's nuclear program back decades. Maximum sanctions, maximum support to the Iranian people. Houthis need their capabilities removed.

[Peter K. Enns @pete_enns]

My 2024 election forecast published in @ps_polisci @CUP_PoliSci with @JuliusLagodny, @jcolner99, and Anusha Kumar correctly forecasted 45/45 called states 100 days before the election using @verasight_data: https://t.co/jbKXs5qPwR.

[Michael Bang Petersen @M_B_Petersen]

Is it "the economy, stupid"? Indirectly, yes. But in the end, it is about people's everyday lives.

Our research on desires for radical change show that loneliness and feelings of personal status loss are key drivers.

Especially for young men, including of color.

[Catherine Herridge @C__Herridge]

NEW INTEL:

Sources Report Terrorists in Afghanistan Taking A Page From October 7 Playbook

“The system is blinking red,”  a former special operator said. “No one wants to be in the room when the Afghanistan grenade goes off.”

Credible sources describe footage that suggests small terrorist cells, primarily Al Qaeda, are training with ultralights and paragliders in Afghanistan.    

Sources describe the terrorists as “taking a page from the October 7 playbook” by mirroring the TTPs (tactics, techniques and procedures.)

The presence of these camps, and the threats they pose are amplified by the American military hardware that the Biden administration abandoned in Afghanistan. 

New reporting underscores concern terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda, are strengthening their foothold in AFG.

Another intelligence stream details that in recent months an Al Qaeda operative traveled from Afghanistan to Saudi Arabia for financing, tasked with developing a weaponized drone capability.

More details in the newsletter that complements our investigations on X!

https://t.co/43shzvbROo 

Outreach to multiple USG departments for comment.

[Journal of Democracy @JoDemocracy]

“Dictatorial drift is caused by a perceived crisis of democracy, the declining hegemony of liberal values, and the exhaustion of Western tools and strategies for promoting liberal democracy.”

https://t.co/07ZP5ih2bJ

[JaguarAnalytics @JaguarAnalytics]

-- Defense stocks ripping higher
-- Gold ripping higher
-- Oil ripping higher
-- VIX ripping higher
-- Stock market selling off

All of these things simultaneously happen when there is a risk of war brewing.

[Gokul Sahni @Gokul_Sahni]

“Much as Lincoln insisted the United States could not permanently endure “half slave and half free,” so there was an assumption among liberal interventionists that the world must ultimately go in one direction or the other.” 10/24

[Iran International English @IranIntl_En]

"Despite Biden-Harris hand-wringing over escalation, Nasrallah, Hezbollah & Iran have brought the good people of Lebanon nothing but economic hardship & war. The Lebanese people have the power to chart a new path forward," @SenateForeign Ranking Member @SenatorRisch said on Nasrallah's death in an Israeli air strike.

[AQ3.0 @TrackingAQ]

Many of us remember the words of Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed in 2017, when he spoke nothing but the truth. Now, in 2024, we find ourselves facing a chilling and devastating plot targeting Europe and the U.S. by dozens of cooperating terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda, Al-Shabaab, Al-Ansar and IS (yes, they work together). The goal: to kill at least 30,000 Westerners, using around 2,000 trained jihadists from Afghanistan. These operatives have been infiltrating Europe and the U.S. via migrant routes, alongside hundreds of homegrown jihadists who have returned from conflict zones in Syria, Iraq, and Somalia after 2017.

This year alone, an IS-affiliated group successfully smuggled over 400 individuals across the U.S. southern border. According to the Department of Homeland Security 150 were apprehended, but the rest evaded capture. Earlier this year the FBI arrested 8 suspected Al-Qaeda terrorists at the southern border. Meanwhile, hundreds of terrorists exploited evacuation programs following the fall of Kabul to enter Europe and the U.S., and even more have used smuggling routes to penetrate our borders in southern Europe and the U.S.

Consider the events of November 26, 2008, when a single cell of 10 jihadists launched 10 simultaneous attacks in Mumbai, killing 166 people. Now imagine the scale if 200 such cells, each consisting of 10 trained jihadists, were activated — 100 targeting major U.S. cities and 100 spread across European capitals. Coupled with local extremists who are poised to join them, the potential devastation is unimaginable.

Learn more about this alarming threat in Al-Qaeda 2.0: The Upcoming Attacks on the United States and Europe, now available at Amazon (see: https://t.co/W5EwlH1Oqu for links to your local Amazon website).

[AQ3.0 @TrackingAQ]

And it's already happening!!!

[AQ3.0 @TrackingAQ]

The political denial of serious threat posed by al-Qaeda is extremely strong. It’s beyond insanity. Now, we are using common sense to debunk the lies of our governments and intelligence agencies
By using UN reports, we are listing indicators which clearly show al-Qaeda’s intention

I. Senior al-Qaeda Central, Majlis shura members are in Afghanistan – reuniting/regrouping – UN reports

What is the intention of al-Qaeda regrouping/reuniting again if not to keep going with its mission?

Al-Qaeda was founded with unambiguous goals
1. Spread the sentiment of jihad in Islamic nations – obligatory – Internal jihad
2. Prepare the cadre through training and participating in fighting – obligatory – Internal jihad
3. Back and support the jihad movements in the world, according to ability – External jihad
4. Coordinate between jihad movements in the world, according to ability – External jihad

Goals in priority:
1. “Crusaders” non-Muslim occupiers have to be expelled from the Middle East – Western countries, Israel - far enemies
2. Local secular government rules must be removed from Muslim countries – Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan,UAE, Yemen and Muslim countries in Africa - close enemies
3. Islamic rules being established in their place
#AQ #terrorism

[Aaron Y. Zelin @azelin]

This is what happens when you bet on Russia who’s only in it for resource extraction reasons and protecting the regime, not actual CT. Important to remember that Russia’s record on CT in Syria is atrocious and primarily was beating up on civilians.

[Paweł Wójcik 🦋 @SaladinAlDronni]

Jihadist airport assault leaves Mali's junta rattled

https://t.co/iggaIlbMCt

[AQ3.0 @TrackingAQ]

Now the world is realizing that Hamza Bin Laden is alive, we are announcing our publication on the details behind the upcoming attack on U.S. and European soil that will make 9/11 look like 'child play'.

The War on Terror is far from over.

In an era of unprecedented global instability, this book exposes the terrifying reality of a meticulously orchestrated terror plot that will irrevocably alter the course of history.

Drawing on years of covert intelligence gathering, first-hand accounts, and expert analysis, this narrative plunges readers into the inner workings of the world’s most dangerous terrorist organization: Al-Qaeda.

Under new leadership, Al-Qaeda has not only rebuilt its network but has also expanded its influence and orchestrated a plot that threatens to inflict casualties on a scale ten times greater than 9/11. From the catastrophic fall of Kabul to a sprawling web of covert operations, each chapter reveals the calculated moves by jihadists to bring terror to the streets of America and Europe.

This is more than just an account of terror; it’s a stark wake-up call, a comprehensive guide to what lies ahead, and a sobering reminder of the stakes at hand. In these pages, the veil is lifted on the most significant threat of our time.

Get your copy (paperback or hardcover) exclusively on Amazon:

🇺🇸 https://t.co/EupS3JVjHC
🇬🇧 https://t.co/zwn6KSaTCp
🇨🇦 https://t.co/P20VxrZcbz
🇦🇺 https://t.co/EToBFeb4la
🇳🇱 https://t.co/QBEZ56nXxP

...or you local Amazon website.

#HamzaBinLaden #AlQaeda 2.0 #GlobalJihad

[Suthan Krishnarajan @Suthan_1607]

A worrying development in our democracies today is that many of us are willing to accept undemocratic behavior by politicians if we agree with them politically.

In my new @apsrjournal article, I scrutinize the perceptual logic behind such behavior in the US & globally.🧵👇🏾

[Charlie Werb @WerbCharlie]

🇳🇪|#Niger: Evidence of #IS collecting Zakat in #Takanamat. Locals purportedly claim that authorities are aware of the group’s governance actions in the area but make no effort to stop it. IS effectively govern notable portions of Nigerien territory in #Tillaberi and #Tahoua.

[TRACTerrorism @TracTerrorism]

#alQaeda is taking a page from eco-fascist playbooks, urging #lonewolves to '#accelerate' societal collapse.

This dangerous convergence of terror and extremism could be a ticking time bomb.

Is this a one-time tactic, or is #AQAP truly drawing inspiration from eco-fascism?

[Middle East Institute @MiddleEastInst]

Ten years after the founding of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, where does the Islamic State currently operate? MEI’s @Charles_Lister discusses how the organization has changed, and the strategies needed to counter its increasing complexity.