Abstarred

[Joshi Herrmann @joshi]

I’ve been writing about Andy Burnham in Manchester for a while. We’ve had a few run-ins but I think he has qualities that many people don’t appreciate and weaknesses that spell trouble.

I wrote this for @ManchesterMill - I hope it’s insightful and fair.

https://t.co/Vh6P57t40G

[Asa @xAsamoahx]

If gas prices keep going up it will be cheaper to snort cocaine and run everywhere.

[Mikel Jollett @Mikel_Jollett]

Any student of history will tell you this is an extremely dangerous moment.

People like Trump who make wild threats to do insane homicidal things again and again are full of shit—until they aren’t.

All the safeguards are gone.
The generals have been removed.
Our allies have been alienated.
Congressional Republicans will follow Trump to the apocalypse.

We really are on the razor’s edge of total disaster here and millions if not billions of lives hang in the balance.

[Rachel Bitecofer 🗽🦆 @RachelBitecofer]

The reason no one did this before is because the entire Middle East is now destabilized.

[Lucy Easthope @LucyGoBag]

Now THAT is a question

[Tom Peck @tompeck]

i am genuinely stunned by what Ed Davey is doing. Absolutely bananas. Why are they choosing this moment to have a go at brits in Dubai?

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

Striking stats from Gulf governments on what Iran fired at them yesterday (most of these were intercepted):

UAE: 137 missiles and 209 drones

Qatar: 66 missiles

Bahrain: 45 missiles, 9 drones

Means Iran launched roughly as many missiles at the UAE yesterday as it did at Israel

[Gideon Rachman @gideonrachman]

Can’t fly over Russia. Now can’t fly via the Gulf. Getting tricky to get to Asia.

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

A few day-two thoughts. There's still a lot that we don't know about dynamics and decision-making in America, Iran and the Gulf, and those unanswered questions will shape how this plays out:

1) How does Trump see this ending? Will he press on for weeks? Will he look for a way to declare victory now that Khamenei is dead? Does he even know the answer?

2) How resilient is the regime, really? Yes, it has planned for this moment and it's not a one-man show. But it has to manage a transition under sustained fire and at a time of deep political and economic crisis. No one knows how this is going to play out; be wary of simple answers.

3) On a related note, how much do we see unrest in Iran, either peaceful or violent? And how much does the regime retain the capacity to quash it?

4) To what extent is the regime actually exercising command and control? Is lobbing drones at civilian airports and hotels in the Gulf a strategy directed from the top? Or is it self-directed, individual units hitting random targets because the regime delegated decision-making to them?

5) How long can Iran sustain its attacks on the Gulf? And how long can Gulf states continue parrying them with air defenses? The latter clock is probably ticking faster than the former.

6) What will the Gulf states do? They cannot sit idly amid a sustained campaign of attacks that have real human and economic cost. But how much actual power/influence do they have, whether to pressure Trump to end the war or to choose sides and support it?

7) What will happen when oil markets open later today? A big, sustained spike in prices would surely have an impact on Trump's decision-making.

[Timour Azhari @timourazhari]

The UAE's ministry of defense said three people of Pakistani, Nepalese, Bangladeshi nationalities were killed in Iranian attacks on the Gulf country and 58 were lightly wounded so far.

It said around 165 ballistic missiles were launched towards the country from Iran so far, of which 152 were destroyed, 13 fell into the sea, in addition to two cruise missiles and 541 drones.

[Jim Ferguson @JimFergusonUK]

🚨 USS GERALD FORD “GOES DARK”: One of America’s most powerful warships disappears from public tracking

The USS Gerald R. Ford — the most advanced aircraft carrier on Earth — is no longer visible on open-source tracking systems.

When carriers go silent, it usually means one thing:

Operational mode.

A nuclear-powered supercarrier does not need to broadcast its position. It moves when and where it chooses — with overwhelming force behind it.

If the Ford strike group is repositioning for combat operations, the strategic message is unmistakable.

The world’s most powerful navy is preparing.

Watch closely.

[Shaun Mills @ShaunMillsUK]

@secretglasto 👀

[Paul Mason @paulmasonnews]

Principled and crystal clear 🚩

[Rosamund Urwin @RosamundUrwin]

What is the meaning of life?

I thought this was a lovely read, whatever your beliefs

https://t.co/C7BVUJHlrf

[Fascinating @fasc1nate]

A list of educational websites.

[VeryBritishProblems @SoVeryBritish]

Right, it’s March now. Wheel out the lawnmower and fire up the barbecue.

[Nicholas Drummond @nicholadrummond]

This is the best summary of the current geopolitical situation I have seen. Sir Alex Younger was head of MI6 between 2014 and 2020. Really worth watching.

[James Ball @jamesrbuk]

This is the biggest shift in US foreign policy since 1945. It'll probably barely make the front pages.

[Fascinating @fasc1nate]

This guide could save your life.