NEW PUBLICATION! I analyzed 10 months of combat locations, weapons transfers, military logistics & networks in #Sudan🇸🇩 to reconstruct how the #RSF overtook the #SAF on the ground - and how Wagner & UAE supplied this war. Summary🧵below
https://t.co/2eOQCtfV24 @GIGA_Institute
Heute Abend spricht #GIGA-Forscherin @ActuallyHager bei #SRFglobal über den Bürgerkrieg im #Sudan. Die Geschichte der Gewalt in #Darfur scheint sich zu wiederholen. Was bedeutet das für die Zukunft des Landes?
➡️ Einschalten: 22:25 Uhr, SRF 1: https://t.co/oTK4wJXUlC
@plichta_marcel and I have a new piece with @ECPR_TheLoop on Moscow’s efforts to capitalize on coups and insecurity in the Sahel. Thanks to @ActuallyHager for the assist!
"Sudanese refugees in Germany decry forgotten war" amplifying the voices of Stella Gaitano, Mai Shatta, Aya El Sammani & @ActuallyHager:
https://t.co/fnbryBhAYT
#KeepEyesOnSudan
We explore the reasons behind this move and its potential implications for regional dynamics and global geopolitics and how it affects established alliances and partnerships in the region.
Please set a reminder.
Tomorrow, Friday 1700GMT on @XSpaces, we host a round-table discussion on the ECOWAS decision to lift sanctions on Mali, Niger and Guinea.
Is it a carrot-and-stick tactic to forestall intended withdrawals from the regional bloc or geopolitical shifts?
https://t.co/zx0KLpH2MG
Why the #UAE needs to be held accountable for the #war in #Sudan. Powerful piece in Foreign Affairs magazine by @TheSentry_Org’s founding director. Read it here…
https://t.co/SNGGA41Q7g
"SAF and RSF may not be able to terminate the violence anymore because command structures within and between troops have eroded. The SAF’s losses provoke defections from its ranks. Factions that joined the war in Darfur and in Kordofan can supersede Al-Burhan’s and Dagalo’s authority on a municipal level and use the war for their group-specific goals."
NEW PUBLICATION! I analyzed 10 months of combat locations, weapons transfers, military logistics & networks in #Sudan🇸🇩 to reconstruct how the #RSF overtook the #SAF on the ground - and how Wagner & UAE supplied this war. Summary🧵below
https://t.co/2eOQCtfV24 @GIGA_Institute
Powerful, prescient analysis, with major implications for civilian #protection & #peace making for #Sudan. It portrays both the regionalisation & fragmentation/localisation of #conflict dynamics, and portends (again) that elite deal making efforts to end the war may be misplaced.
This is the best analysis on conflict dynamics I have read on the conflict in #Sudan. It confirmed many of my suspicions, confirmed what I know and taught me even more. 👏🏻@actuallyhager
#Lesetipp
Dichte Analyse zum Stand des Bürgerkriegs zwischen Armee und Rapid Security Forces im #Sudan. Die RSF haben inzwischen dank besserer Logistik die Region eingenommen, welche als Kornkammer des Landes gilt.
I highly recommend this report.
To my knowledge, this is the first writing to clearly acknowledge the tight coordination between Russia, the UAE, and the Haftar family in provision of material aid to #Hemedti’s forces in Sudan.
Terrific job!