bitcoin:native
The Fed hiked and Bitcoin went up. 16 hikes since 2015: a green day-after ran +3% into Friday every time; a red one lost 6% in 5 days. Today's close decides
Also inside: the daily stochastic turn from the zone that marked the $57,750 low (and why tonight's 5-day close matters), the 55 EMA target, golden cross day 9 on the median road to +20%, Krown Pivots, Zcash and Ethereum.
(Author Unknown)
They used to use urine to tan animal skins, so families used to all pee in a pot & then once a day it was taken & sold to the tannery. If you had to do this to survive you were โpiss poor.โ
But worse than that were the really poor folk who couldnโt even afford to buy a pot; they โdidnโt have a pot to piss inโ & were the lowest of the low.
Most people got married in June because they took their yearly bath in May, and they still smelled pretty good by June. Since they were starting to smell, however, brides carried a bouquet of flowers to hide the body odor. Hence the custom today of carrying a bouquet when getting married.
Baths consisted of a big tub filled with hot water. The man of the house had the privilege of the nice clean water, then all the other sons and men, then the women, and finally the children. Last of all the babies. By then the water was so dirty you could actually lose someone in it โฆ hence the saying, โDonโt throw the baby out with the Bath water!โ
Houses had thatched roofs-thick straw-piled high, with no wood underneath. It was the only place for animals to get warm, so all the cats and other small animals (mice, bugs) lived in the roof. When it rained it became slippery and sometimes the animals would slip and fall off the roof, resulting in the idiom, โItโs raining cats and dogs.โ
There was nothing to stop things from falling into the house. This posed a real problem in the bedroom where bugs and other droppings could mess up your nice clean bed, therefore, a bed with big posts and a sheet hung over the top afforded some protection. Thatโs how canopy beds came into existence.
The floor was dirt. Only the wealthy had something other than dirt, leading folks to coin the phrase โdirt poor.โ
The wealthy had slate floors that would get slippery in the winter when wet, so they spread thresh (straw) on floor to help keep their footing. As the winter wore on, they added more thresh until, when you opened the door, it would all start slipping outside. A piece of wood was placed in the entrance-way, subsequently creating a โthresh hold.โ
Sometimes they could obtain pork, which made them feel quite special. When visitors came over, they would hang up their bacon to show off. It was a sign of wealth that a man could, โbring home the bacon.โ They would cut off a little to share with guests and would all sit around and โchew the fat.โ
Bread was divided according to status. Workers got the burnt bottom of the loaf, the family got the middle, and guests got the top, or the โupper crust.โ
Lead cups were used to drink ale or whisky. The combination would sometimes knock the imbibers out for a couple of days. Someone walking along the road would take them for dead and prepare them for burial.. They were laid out on the kitchen table for a couple of days and the family would gather around and eat and drink and wait and see if they would wake up, creating the custom of holding a wake.
England is old and small and the local folks started running out of places to bury people. So they would dig up coffins and would take the bones to a bone-house, and reuse the grave. When reopening these coffins, 1 out of 25 coffins were found to have scratch marks on the inside and they realized they had been burying people alive, so they would tie a string on the wrist of the corpse, lead it through the coffin and up through the ground and tie it to a bell. Someone would have to sit out in the graveyard all night (the graveyard shift.) to listen for the bell; thus, someone could be, saved by the bell or was considered a dead ringer.
And thatโs the truth. Now, whoever said History was boring?
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@jasonpizzino Jason, love your analysis, keep it going!
You have not mentioned the support of $48,900 from August 2024 50% collapse due to the Japanese carry. I am watching this level for #BTC as itโs between the 38.2% and 23.6%. I may be wrong, but letโs see! The buy level for #BTC is close!
Bitcoin is sitting right on the 200-week moving average, around $61,300. I want to be precise about why that matters, because most people quote the wrong line.
The 200-week simple moving average, not the exponential one, has marked the cycle bottom in 2015, in 2018 and in 2022. Every major bear in bitcoin's history has bottomed at or just below this line and then turned. It is the closest thing the asset has to a structural floor, because it represents roughly four years of average price, which is one full cycle. We are testing it right now, and bitcoin has already lost the 50-week moving average on weekly closes, which is the line that historically separates a bull market from a bear market. So the structure is bearish, and we are in the part of the cycle where you find out who actually had a plan.
The thing I keep repeating, because it is the thing people get wrong, is that this crash is macro, not crypto. There is no FTX here, no Luna, no single blowup to point at. What happened is the Fed pivoted to hiking, the hottest CPI in three years landed, December hike odds sit near 70%, and nobody serious, not Nomura, not Morgan Stanley, not JPMorgan, is pricing cuts for 2026. A hiking cycle does not change bitcoin's bear structure. The 200-week bottom and the roughly twelve-month bear clock still apply. What the regime changes is the depth. Hawkish macro means the drawdown can go deeper than a clean cycle would suggest before it finds the floor.
So here are the two lanes I'm watching. The bull lane: bitcoin holds $61K, reclaims $69K which was prior-cycle resistance, then $76K as the measured move, then $87K which is the 200-day average. The bear lane: it loses $61K on a weekly close, and the next real floor is $53,600, which is the realized price, the on-chain average cost basis for the entire network. Below that, mid-$40s, which would be roughly 30% under the 200-week line, the same kind of overshoot 2022 produced.
I'm not trying to call the exact bottom, because precision is a trap. But there is a convergence I trust as a signal, and it has marked the last four bottoms: price at the realized cost basis around $53,600, the MVRV-Z score collapsing toward zero, and bitcoin trading about 16% below the 200-week line. When those three line up, that is the zone, historically. On-chain, supply in loss just passed supply in profit for the first time this cycle, with around 8 million coins underwater. That is pain, and pain is what the setup is made of.
None of those triggers are sentiment. They're levels. That's the whole point. In a bear market the edge isn't having a smarter opinion about where price goes. It's deciding your levels in advance and being willing to do nothing until price comes to them.
@nobrainflip Is it me, or is everyone saying the same thing about the bottom being in during October, around $40k? If everyone is saying the same thing either I am looking for it or everyone will be surprised. Which will it be?