Adam Garcia

Software isn't dead. I'm betting real money on it · The Unbreakable Stack on @joinautopilot · Long $CRM $NOW $PANW · Not financial advice

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

Everyone says AI is killing software.

I put real money on the other side of that trade.

10 names. $60K riding on them. Every move posted here.

This is The Unbreakable Stack. 🧵

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

The honest bear case against my own position.

$CRM at 185.95 trades at 21.5x trailing earnings. That is not cheap for a company guiding to 10.7% revenue growth next quarter, down from 13.3%. The deceleration is real and I am not going to pretend it isn't.

My counter is that they are retiring 10% of the float a year while it decelerates, which is what a company does when it thinks its own stock is the best thing it can buy.

If growth breaks into single digits on September 2, the thesis is damaged. I will say so here.

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

$NOW reported July 22. EPS 0.90 against 0.86 expected. Revenue 3.987B against 3.927B expected.

It beat both lines and fell 3.7% the next day.

It closed 114.19 on Aug 3, up 24.2% from the July 23 low of 91.94.

The beat did not move it. The tape moved it three weeks later, once everyone stopped panicking. Next print is October 28 and I am holding into it.

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

Week 3 of posting my real book instead of my opinions.

The Unbreakable Stack. Ten software names, my own money, held since May 20.

Best position right now is $PANW, closed 347.13 on Aug 3.

Worst one is still underwater and I have not sold it.

The whole thesis is that AI makes enterprise software more valuable, not less.

Green or red, this gets posted.

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

@MediaKing Its simple but not easy and most people don't have the patience to let something compound for years. Respect!

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

A company being eaten alive does not retire a tenth of itself.

Salesforce diluted share count: 871 million last quarter against 970 million a year earlier. Down 10.2%, paid for out of a 21.8% operating margin, while revenue grew 13.3%.

Disrupted companies issue stock to survive. This one is buying itself back.

Watch the next 10-Q. If that share count goes up, I am wrong and I will post it.

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

$CRM discount tracker, Aug 3.

Closed 185.95. That is 49.5% below the all time high close of 367.87 set in December 2024.

What the business did over that same stretch: revenue 11.13B last quarter against 9.83B a year earlier, up 13.3%. Gross margin 76.9%. Operating margin 21.8%.

Half the price. More of the business. One of those two numbers is wrong, and I have real money saying it is the price.

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

Wall Street's price target on $CRM is 265.75.

That is 42.9% above the Aug 3 close of 185.95, and it reads like a fantasy until you do the division.

At 265.75 on next year's consensus EPS of 12.48, the stock trades at 21.3x.

Today at 185.95 on trailing EPS of 8.63, it trades at 21.5x.

The target is not asking anyone to pay a higher multiple. It is asking the earnings to show up.

That is a much smaller ask, and it is testable on September 2.

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

@Mr_Derivatives 125.65 close on 57.7M shares against a 29M average. Almost double normal volume before it even got to the after hours move. The tape agreed with this print faster than it usually does.

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

@Dr_Crossroads Worth flagging it is a mark to market gain, so it reverses as easily as it arrived. Two cents of adjusted EPS is noise in a quarter this strong. It only matters if a future print needs it to clear the bar. Did Glazer say whether it is baked into guidance?

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

@cramforce Most precise version of this argument I have seen. Salesforce cut its share count 10.2% last quarter, 871M from 970M, while growing revenue 13.3%, which is a company betting it lands on the right side of your sentence. Does the v0 API make that easier for incumbents or harder?

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

@LeadingReport The buried line here is that the average enterprise already runs hundreds of AI apps with zero IT oversight. That is not software getting replaced, it is the governance layer becoming the product. Which incumbent do you think ends up owning it?

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

Just the system working as designed.

[Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker ♟ @pelositracker]

Another win for corporations, another loss for Americans

President Trump’s tariff refunds for:

• Walmart $WMT: $2.4B
• Apple $AAPL: $2.2B
• Target $TGT: $2.2B
• Ford $F: $1.3B
• Nike $NKE: $1.0B
• Amazon $AMZN: $600M
• General Motors $GM: $500M
• UPS $UPS: $500M

Your refund:

• $0

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

@Kay2289123 If it were being swallowed, the share count would be climbing to fund the fight. Salesforce retired 10.2% of its diluted shares in a year, 871M against 970M, at a 21.8% operating margin. That is a company harvesting, not one drowning. Which name on your list breaks first?

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

@masked_investor Round one was 156.93 on July 23 to 188.38 on July 29, up 20.0% in four sessions, then it gave back 4.07% in a day and closed 184.02. Round two only counts if it takes out 188.38. Is that your line too, or are you working off something lower?

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

Agreed, and my own book is the proof.

Ten software positions, all held since May. Best is $PANW +39.3% since entry. Worst is $ADSK +0.1%.

Same sector. A 39.2 point spread.

Nobody got that spread from picking software. They got it from the price they paid.

Long all ten.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

SpaceX is suffering the same fate as so many major IPOs before it: a euphoric debut, unrealistic expectations, and a painful reality check.

Lesson: great companies can still be bad investments at the wrong price. Don’t chase. $SPCX

Video: https://t.co/qXQ1J0j3nv

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

Two books, week 2 of posting them publicly.

The Unbreakable Stack: +11.8% since May 20. Ten software positions, all ten green since entry. Best $PANW +39.3%. Worst $ADSK +0.1%. A 39.2 point spread inside one sector.

The Hormuz Premium: +3.4%. Nine energy positions, all green or flat. $VLO +27.9% and $PSX +23.4% carry it. $XOM +1.8% and $OXY +0.4% do not. A 27.5 point spread.

Two sectors. Same lesson. The label did not pay. The specific businesses did.

Anyone who bought software or energy as a bucket got the average of that spread. The return lives in the dispersion, and the dispersion is decided before you buy.

Zero trades in either book for 79 days. None of it required me to do anything after the picks were made.

36 people now copy the two books, 204K in copied assets between them. Every position and every number above is public on the page.

My opinion: most of a sector return is decided at selection. Very little is decided after.

Long all 19 positions. Three thousand dollars of my own money is in each book.

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

Everyone prices all of software off one rate number.

My nine software names in July: best $WDAY +31.0%, worst $RBRK -9.9%. A 41 point spread in one sector in one month.

My opinion: if rates were the driver, those nine would move together. They did not.

Long all nine.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The bond market situation is crazy.

While everyone focuses on AI, US borrowing rates just hit the highest level since June 2007.

Credit card "serious delinquencies" are at the highest since 2010 and mortgage rates could near 8%.

What's happening? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

@StockMKTNewz Two very different businesses in one line item. Capex heavy AI buildout, and a renewal book that bills whether or not the buildout pays off.

My opinion: the renewal book is the durable half, and it is the half that gets ignored every time a capex headline lands.

[Adam Garcia @adamgarcia]

A 67% hike probability is supposed to be the worst tape there is for long duration software.

My nine software names in July: seven up. Average +12.5%. $WDAY +31.0%.

My opinion: the tape stopped pricing software as duration and started pricing it as renewals.

Long all nine.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

67% chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026, per Polymarket: