Adam Taggart

Founder & host of Thoughtful Money®

Media inquires: [email protected]

Tweets are *not* financial advice

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

Yes, the news is true: I have left Wealthion

To hear why & what comes next, plus ask me any questions you have, read my new post at:

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@1leone @thoughtfulmoney @RealRickRule Impressive

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@CNyren @thoughtfulmoney @QTRResearch Simple solution: if you don't want to watch someone I'm interviewing, just skip the video

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

I feel like I do a pretty good job of doing so graciously when someone makes a call I can't wrap my brain around, or they made a big one in the past that didn't come to fruition

It's fair game...though I'm sensitive to the fact that prediction-making is a tough business, and I think we should all be understanding that a lot of them won't play out as expected, even in the best of times

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

IMPORTANT

I made the post below 3 weeks ago suggesting that the oil market may be sniffing out an imminent re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz

That indeed proved to be the case

Several days later, the peace deal MoU was announced

Traffic through the Strait is now recovering (see chart below)

Oil prices are now ~$20 lower than when I posted (WTI futures currently at $67)

And here's the *important* point:

Scan through the replies to my original post. See not just how many people disagreed with my suggestion, but how *absolutely* sure they were it couldn't happen.

Too many people are too bound to their ideology to consider what *is* happening vs what their mindset *really wants* to happen

That kind of thinking certainly doesn't serve them as investors. Nor does it serve us collectively as a society when we refuse to remain open-minded to opposing views.

My message here is: take a breath. Loosen up your thinking. Realize that none of us has all the pieces to the puzzle. And that others who think differently may actually hold an important piece or two.

And also, be respectful. Nobody likes a "know it all" jerk who clearly doesn't know it all...

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

Is the oil market sniffing out the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz soon?

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@TheBossFanZG No padding that I could see, though some wore helmets

The sheep are pretty soft and not that heavy

Little kids are made of rubber, generally

And farm kids are tough

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

They start ‘em young

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

IMPORTANT

I made the post below 3 weeks ago suggesting that the oil market may be sniffing out an imminent re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz

That indeed proved to be the case

Several days later, the peace deal MoU was announced

Traffic through the Strait is now recovering (see chart below)

Oil prices are now ~$20 lower than when I posted (WTI futures currently at $67)

And here's the *important* point:

Scan through the replies to my original post. See not just how many people disagreed with my suggestion, but how *absolutely* sure they were it couldn't happen.

Too many people are too bound to their ideology to consider what *is* happening vs what their mindset *really wants* to happen

That kind of thinking certainly doesn't serve them as investors. Nor does it serve us collectively as a society when we refuse to remain open-minded to opposing views.

My message here is: take a breath. Loosen up your thinking. Realize that none of us has all the pieces to the puzzle. And that others who think differently may actually hold an important piece or two.

And also, be respectful. Nobody likes a "know it all" jerk who clearly doesn't know it all...

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@zerohedge Sounds like a good poll to put on...Polymarket

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@Sam739107361281 And look how fast & far progress went as soon as we opened up our minds to the possibility that Galileo & Copernicus might be onto something

Blind opposition doesn't serve our interests

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@TedGagner ✌️

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@deuxglass1 If I'm lucky

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@CarolPe97937872 💯

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@SOBRBC 🙂

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

I think Norway is a fantastic country. I could easily see myself enjoying living there.

My Norwegian friends (who came to the US to get educated) tell me that despite it all the great benefits (or perhaps because of them) the average Norwegian takes life easy and doesn't have the drive to improve/exceed that Americans have

Even they envy our culture

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

To the many doubting my claim that "everyone else in the rest of the world wants to live" in America:

"The United States has the largest absolute demand and the highest number of immigrants in the world, hosting over 52 million foreign-born residents. Globally, it remains the most sought-after destination, with an estimated one in five potential migrants—over 150 million adults worldwide—naming the U.S. as their preferred destination."

(source: WORLD MIGRATION REPORT DATA SNAPSHOT, IOM Research)

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

I fully admit that the US economic system isn't perfect in practice right now (too much corporatism, elite capture, etc)

But here's an honest question for those in the "capitalism has failed in America" camp:

Then why does everyone else in the rest of the world want to live here?

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@JudithSamson_F They actually take a lot of pains to make sure the animals are very well treated. I was surprised.

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@Rocinanteismyr1 So fun!

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@Rocinanteismyr1 It does!

[Thoughtful Money® @thoughtfulmoney]

The Market Could Drop 30% And Still Be Bullish

Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors

In this Short video, @LanceRoberts and @AdamTaggart discuss why the traditional 20% bear market definition may no longer apply and what it would actually take to break the market's long-term bullish trend.

Many investors still use the old rule that a 20% decline automatically means a bear market. But that definition dates back to the 1960s, when a 20% drop was often enough to break the market's long-term uptrend.
The question you need to ask isn't how far stocks fall. It's whether they break the underlying trend.

During the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2007-2009 financial crisis, markets didn't just correct. They destroyed years of gains, broke major trend structures, and entered prolonged periods of negative price action. Those were true bear markets.

Since 2009, we've seen several sharp selloffs, including the pandemic crash and multiple 20%+ corrections. Yet each time, the market eventually recovered and continued its long-term advance. The secular bull trend remained intact.

That's why a 20% decline today may not carry the same significance it once did. According to this, the market is currently so far above its long-term trend that even a 30% correction could still leave the broader bull market intact.

In fact, it may take a 40%-50% decline before the long-term trend is truly broken and the market enters what could reasonably be called a bear market.

So, a correction and a bear market are not necessarily the same thing. Investors should focus less on arbitrary percentage thresholds and more on whether the market's long-term trend structure remains intact.

$SPX $SPY $QQQ

💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with @LanceRoberts by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@TheGreatRedDane @RealKeithWeiner I have

So...what other country offers a superior combination of freedoms, opportunity & benefits?

I'll wait...

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

I fully admit that the US economic system isn't perfect in practice right now (too much corporatism, elite capture, etc)

But here's an honest question for those in the "capitalism has failed in America" camp:

Then why does everyone else in the rest of the world want to live here?

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@CarolPe97937872 Sure do

https://t.co/iWaKwcJGSp

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

They start ‘em young

[Adam Taggart @adamtaggart]

@adamestero @scottthomasm @TheTea69420 @adamemedia1 https://t.co/8TizzH8aH0