Adam the Analyst

Chief Analyst at TradingKey;
14 yrs as analyst in funds and investment banks;
Covering AI/Tech/Consumer/Internet;
Daily insights, hot takes are my own.

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

@ruima mark一下

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

@10xmylife 目前看没有。最后还是要看数据和流量。

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

确实感谢这篇公众号让我对ai行情提高了警惕，任教主高调看多的时候就跑路，16年开始，这个规律一直没啥问题

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

本来我觉得是技术性回调，看到这篇公众号心凉了半截，难道真的结束了？？

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

@Wujizhuzhu 周天王和高博士估计是不同意这个三足鼎立的。。。客观说任教主15年确实看对了很厉害，但其他都是反指

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

@ZTZZBTC 很多灵活就业都是实质上的失业者续一份社保

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

@aulaylab 同样曾为首席，不知道还有多少人会提到我🤣

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

记得刚入行没多久，高博出了一本书《经济运行的逻辑》，慕名去读了读，虽然我看的一直是成长行业，宏观的用处没那么大，但是幸好有了这本书的阅读，再加上学校教的宏观经济学，让我后面对宏观的分析还能听懂一点点。

一直想着哪天补一补宏观，却一直没真正行动。听闻高博去世的消息，不胜唏嘘的同时，想到了现在最先进的AI工具。

于是用codex，把高博公开文章全部提炼了一下，做成了一个skill，继续向高博学习。

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

@ZTZZBTC 哈哈哈作为知乎早年大v，确实早就不玩了，但是现在混的还是不行啊

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

高博居然去世了。难以置信，从学生时代就读他的报告。

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

@jefflijun 刚刚给我的gemini问了一下这个问题，答案笑死我了，强烈建议试一下

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

@MrGafish 我之前微博快10w，也没做过啊

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

@skyguoCypherium 大国的定义是什么？巴西人口比俄罗斯多了接近50%

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

I've been an investment banking analyst for over a decade. I used to cover the internet sector, and recently I've learned a lot about AI from you. But I'm a bit puzzled: when you analyze the AI industry, you proactively break down forward-looking issues like supply chain chokepoints and competitive dynamics. However, when analyzing internet companies like Reddit, why do you focus mainly on financial report data instead of examining forward-looking factors such as platform competition, creator ecosystems, and so on

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

As an investment banking analyst with over ten years of experience, I hold a different view.

Looking back at the dot-com bubble from over 20 years ago, I find that there are still many differences.

For example, regarding the investment in fiber optics back then, the vacancy rate was still close to 90% three years after the bubble burst.

This route of "infrastructure first, applications later" is used by many to argue for today's "AI bubble".

But it is completely different.

There are two important reasons for the overinvestment in fiber optics: 1. Digging roads is very expensive, while laying fiber optics is very cheap, so companies that dug roads would always put extra in, regardless of whether it's needed right now; 2. Fiber optics in the backbone network have economies of scale, but the last mile does not. However, if the last mile is not well-laid with fiber optics, the speed of the backbone network will hit a bottleneck.

Under these two effects, a massive surplus appeared in the backbone network's fiber optics.

Today, AI is still outputting strong capacity and solving bottlenecks and chokepoints. This has barely started.

After this Meta incident came out, the drop is definitely not over yet. If you are doing short-term trading, just run and buy back later; if you are long-term, just keep holding.

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

复盘了一下20多年前的互联网泡沫，发现还是有很多地方不一样的。

比如当年光纤的投资，泡沫破了3年后，空置率还有接近90%。

这种基础设施先行，应用后行的路线，被很多人用来论证如今的“AI泡沫”

但是完全不一样。

光纤之所以投资过剩，有两个重要的原因：1、挖路很贵，放光纤很便宜，所以挖了路的公司总是多放一些进去，不管现在用不用得着；2、骨干网的光纤有规模效应，但是最后一公里没有。但是最后一公里不铺好光纤，骨干网的速度就有了瓶颈。

在这两个效用下，骨干网光纤出现了大量的过剩。

如今AI还在导出强产能，解决battleneck 和 chockpoint，这才哪到哪。

meta这个事情出来以后，现在肯定没跌完，做短线就跑路再买回来，长线就一直拿着就行。

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

@TencentHunyuan As an equity analyst I should say the model is amazing and we should long Tencent

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

@Wujizhuzhu 游戏有，所以内容行业市值最大的公司基本上是游戏公司

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

Stock markets within the Confucian cultural sphere generally have higher volatility, which is determined by the underlying culture. Having worked as an analyst at several investment banks for over ten years, I can clearly feel that fund managers from different countries ask very different questions

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

看了看韩国股市的疯狂，再联想到A股。忽然感觉儒家文化和股市投机性应该有内在联系。

问了问AI，感觉我应该是猜对了

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

简单说：1、短期需求下降，供给增加，一个小周期拐点在所难免；2、长期来看，ai真实需求依然远未到顶。

[Adam the Analyst @AdamTheAnalyst7]

https://t.co/eNrU6FPc40