Adam

newsletter writer. alt investments, geopolitics

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Also Apollo: we have 250bn in AI private credit

[Tom's Hardware @tomshardware]

Huawei chairman thanks the US for supercharging China’s semiconductor industry https://t.co/RYqkqqnxRT

[WarTranslated @wartranslated]

Footage of the FP-1/2 drone strike on frigate Admiral Essen, project 11356, at Novorossiysk naval base, May 23.

[Financial Physics @FinancialPhys]

…full stop…. HTF did he still owe $25K on a 2019 Yukon?

[Matthew Zirwas, MD @MattZirwas]

Dermatology is wrong about the sun.

And it's killing people.

I'm a dermatologist. 226 publications. I should know.

Avoiding the sun increases the risk of dying as much as being a smoker.

We can fix it.

For decades, dermatology's message has been simple: avoid the sun. Wear sunscreen. Seek shade. UV causes skin cancer. End of discussion.

That message is incomplete and outdated.

People are dying because of it. Lots of people.

The evidence has gotten strong enough that the field needs to update it.🧵

[Breaking911 @Breaking911]

WATCH: A paraglider was hit by a Cessna 172 near Zell am See, Austria, on Saturday but deployed her emergency parachute and landed safely. The plane pilot also landed safely after the midair collision.

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

Concerning.

[Dave Rubin Clips II (Parody) - Retired Jan.20/2025 @DaveClips]

Iran war: greatest hits from the last 12 weeks

[Adam @Adam_Alts]

I have a good sized position in Abaxx $ABXXF and plan to hold it for 10+ years.

It's not often a new commodities exchange comes along. Especially one focused on physical deliverabiliry, secure decentralized ID, real world tokenization, fast settlement. In short: better tech.

They just uplisted to Toronto, and I expect a Nasdaq uplist soonish. Great founder/CEO - Josh Crumb. Jeff Currie on board as co-Chairman. Strong core of investors. Great risk/reward.

Strong early traction, mostly on gold kilobar contract (Singapore). Just launched 1,000oz .9999 silver.

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

You can’t print molecules (or atoms or joules). $Abaxx is a physically settled commodities exchange that will drive true price discovery and the flow of commodities globally.

As the picks and shovels play of the most asymmetric trade in financial history, $ABXX has exponential volume growth and a game-changing technology that can enable tokenization of real world assets.

The Abaxx Exchange has been setting new trading volume records, highlighted by its first 50k contract day. The 50k volume level positions ABAXX as an emerging global benchmark exchange while signalling that operating breakeven economics are within reach.

Additionally, $ABXX will be uplisted to the Toronto Stock Exchange this Thursday, opening up potential index inclusion in the weeks or months ahead driving more liquidity and lower cost of capital.

Volumes were primarily driven by the Singapore #Gold Kilobar (SGK) & our emerging flagship #LNG (GOM, NPA) benchmarks.

CEO Josh Crumb and I will be on an ATB client call this Thursday at 11am ET. Please contact your ATB representative for details.

[Jeffrey Currie 🆔++ @CommodMkt]

You can’t print molecules (or atoms or joules). $Abaxx is a physically settled commodities exchange that will drive true price discovery and the flow of commodities globally.

As the picks and shovels play of the most asymmetric trade in financial history, $ABXX has exponential volume growth and a game-changing technology that can enable tokenization of real world assets.

The Abaxx Exchange has been setting new trading volume records, highlighted by its first 50k contract day. The 50k volume level positions ABAXX as an emerging global benchmark exchange while signalling that operating breakeven economics are within reach.

Additionally, $ABXX will be uplisted to the Toronto Stock Exchange this Thursday, opening up potential index inclusion in the weeks or months ahead driving more liquidity and lower cost of capital.

Volumes were primarily driven by the Singapore #Gold Kilobar (SGK) & our emerging flagship #LNG (GOM, NPA) benchmarks.

CEO Josh Crumb and I will be on an ATB client call this Thursday at 11am ET. Please contact your ATB representative for details.

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔Microsoft canceled its internal Claude Code licenses this week after token-based billing made the cost untenable, even for a company with effectively infinite cloud resources. Uber's CTO sent an internal memo warning the company burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in just four months. American AI software prices have jumped 20% to 37%, and GitHub (owned by Microsoft) is dropping flat-rate plans for usage-based billing across its products.

My Take
The AI subsidy era is ending in real time. The same company that put $13 billion into OpenAI and built the Azure infrastructure powering most of Anthropic's compute just looked at the bill from a competitor's coding tool and decided it was not worth paying. That is not a productivity failure on Anthropic's end. Token-based pricing is forcing every enterprise customer to confront the actual cost of running these models at scale, and the number turns out to be far higher than the flat-rate experiments suggested.

This ties directly to my Gemini Flash post yesterday. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google all raised effective prices in the last six months. Enterprises that built workflows assuming AI costs would keep falling are now watching annual budgets evaporate in months. Two outcomes look likely from here. Either enterprises scale back AI usage to fit budgets, which slows the revenue ramp the labs need to justify their valuations ahead of IPOs, or the labs cut prices and absorb the losses, which makes the unit economics worse at exactly the wrong moment. Both paths land in the same place, the numbers stop working, and somebody has to take the writedown.

Hedgie🤗

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔Georgia Power is using eminent domain to seize 21 homes and 330 properties in Coweta County to build transmission lines for AI data centers. Angela Hall, a 49-year-old single mother who escaped public housing to buy her 2.5-acre Newnan home, has until August 1 to leave.
The nearby Project Sail data center proposal would put nine buildings on 830 acres demanding 900 megawatts, enough to rival a nuclear reactor. Coweta commissioners approved the rezoning 3-2 in April. Citizens for a Rural Coweta and Stop Project Sail are now suing.

My Take
Eminent domain should worry every homeowner in a state with hyperscaler activity. The legal mechanism that lets a private utility company seize private property for "public use" was designed for highways, water mains, and electrical grid maintenance, not for transmission lines dedicated to a single industrial customer. When Georgia Power takes Angela Hall's home so 900 megawatts can flow to Project Sail, the public benefit is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that calculation, and the courts will spend the next decade sorting out which uses qualify.

The resistance is now organized, well-documented, and showing up in court filings, zoning appeals, and viral social media at the same time. Coweta joins Saline Township, Tucson, Fayetteville, Lake Tahoe, Phoenix, and Utah on a list that gets longer every week. Each fight looks local. Together they form a pattern hyperscaler capex models have not priced in. The buildout pace Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon assume depends on land getting permitted quickly, transmission getting built quickly, and communities accepting the tradeoffs. None of those assumptions are holding up.

Hedgie🤗

[Kyle Chan @kyleichan]

Chinese EVs are flipping Australia’s auto market, long dominated by Japanese brands. Further accelerated by higher fuel prices from the Iran war.

[Peter Spina ⚒ GoldSeek | SilverSeek @goldseek]

Breaking... The Fed has found a new way to lie about inflation rates:

[Acyn @Acyn]

Trump on Taiwan: When you look at the odds, China is very, very powerful, big country. That's a very small island. Think of it, it's 59 miles away. We're 9500 miles away. That's a little bit of a difficult problem. Taiwan was developed because we had presidents that didn't know what the hell they were doing. They stole our chip industry.

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

Fertility peaked in 2007.

2026 is 18 years later, when this "baby bust" starts heading to college.

Only the beginning, and ALL schools should prepare.

[doomer @uncledoomer]

looking extremely purple and wet today sir

[Adam @Adam_Alts]

Houthi-controlled chokepoint still hasn't recovered years lafter. Bab el-Mandeb

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

"...when Hormuz reopens and volumes normalize."

Counterpoint:

[PJ Ace @PJaccetturo]

Gossip Goblin is arguably the best AI filmmaker in the world.

His new film THE PATCHWRIGHT is a masterpiece (10M+ views).

But nobody knows how he actually makes these.
Until now.

He let me share every step of the workflow with you 🧵👇

[Adam Thomas @TheHonorableAT]

China uses James Bond for a Euro push. World is changing