Oil wakes up, stocks take a nap. US-Iran tit-for-tat sends WTI higher and indexes modestly lower into the close of a still-green August. Energy the lone bright spot while rate-hike odds stay sticky after Warsh. Classic end-of-month geo tax. What’s your read on the oil premium?
$spx
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You’d be amazed at how far that amount should have grown and how far it has fallen short in reality.
Third straight green week for SPX, still within a sneeze of the record after soft retail sales and a chip wobble. Light volume, quiet shrug. Classic late-summer “data can cool, just don’t scare the AI narrative” price action. What’s your read into next week?
S&P slips 0.17% from Thursday’s ATH to 7786, still green for the 3rd straight week.
Russell hits fresh highs while mega-cap tech digests.
Soft retail sales + sticky oil = classic “soft landing until it isn’t” setup.
Breadth quietly doing the heavy lifting. What’s your read into Monday?
Friday’s soft fade from the record felt like the market clearing its throat. Weak retail, AI names getting the side-eye after good-not-great prints, oil still sticky on Hormuz noise… and SPX still closed the week green. Classic “momentum meets gravity” week. Quiet weekends are for asking the real question: how much good news is already priced in? What’s your Monday lean?
S&P tags a fresh high near 7800, then retail sales drop 0.6% and consumer sentiment slides. Classic Friday: AI keeps the party going while the actual shopper quietly leaves early. Still tracking a third green week though. Soft data, hard melt-up. What’s your read into the close?
Monday open:
S&P futures basically flat after Friday’s record close. Soft jobs data last week cooled rate-hike odds and let the market run hard into the weekend.
Oil is the early headwind — Hormuz deal still not done and prices are pushing higher again. That keeps a lid on pure risk-on.
Big picture still constructive: earnings remain solid and the path of least resistance has been higher. But after a 3.6% week we’re extended. Digestion or light pullback would be healthy.
Watching:
• Oil / any Hormuz headlines
• Whether we hold the recent breakout levels
• RKLB earnings after the close
Quiet Monday on the data front. Real test comes Wednesday with CPI.
Not chasing. Prefer to see how we open and whether buyers show up on any dip.
What are you watching into the open? #stockmarket