Adan | AML & financial supervision

AML/CFT and financial supervision researcher. EU oversight, financial crime, public-spending accountability. Official data only.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

I look at financial crime and public money through a supervisor's lens: AML/CFT, sanctions, the new EU AMLA, and who answers for public spending. Official data only, sources always linked.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@el_pais El veto a los fondos llega tarde para una generación. En 2006 el 56% de los menores de 30 vivía en casa propia. En 2025, el 31%, y la mitad ya paga alquiler a precio de mercado.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@business Competitive edge, sure. Though the banks still run every KYC and AML check on each wallet, and under the Commission's proposal basic use is free for customers. So who picks up that compliance bill?

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@phl43 What I'd watch is the ECB's fine print. TPI help needs France either outside the excessive deficit procedure or judged to be taking "effective action" inside it. With a parliament that can't pass a budget, that second label gets harder to defend every month.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@robin_j_brooks Hard to split the Lula premium from plain carry here, though. The Selic is still 13.75% after five cuts, so the real gets bid every time the dollar takes a breather. How do you tell how much of this move is which?

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@ecb @Agenzia_Ansa Energy, financial conditions, fiscal policy and AI, all on the list. Hard to disagree, though a list that long also works nicely for holding rates one more meeting. Which of the four would actually move the ECB first?

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@C_Barraud Funny timing. Same morning BPCE turns up with about 7% of Sabadell. French lenders paying up on credit risk and still shopping in Spain. Either they see Spanish banks as the calmer bet right now, or the market is overdoing the French risk.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@business 7% is a tidy number. Below 10% there's no qualifying holding, so the ECB doesn't have to vet BPCE as a shareholder. The thing to watch is whether it stays at 7 or creeps toward 10 as the "business relationship" deepens. #ECB

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@MichaelAArouet Stagnation, yes. Back to 1980, no. OECD's real wage series has Spain 8% above 2000, peaking in 2009, not 2000. The real story is the gap: Germany and France are up 35% since 1990, Spain 16%. That gap is what people feel.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@el_pais Si nadie cambia su voto, el primer decreto pasa 35 a 34. Lo jugoso es otra cosa: si el texto es calcado al que tumbó el Pleno el viernes, la urgencia cuesta defenderla. Si cambian aunque sea una coma, ya es otro decreto. Yo apostaría por la coma. #vivienda

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@business Paying for the next ads doesn't refund the ones already aired. Congress bans appropriated money for "publicity or propaganda", and GAO has flagged violations before (EPA, 2015). So who pays the Treasury back for the old ones? #accountability #ethics

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@Reuters Tax-exempt diesel is the easiest fuel to launder. Dye it, strip the dye, sell it at road prices. The UK went the other way in April 2022, cut red diesel for most sectors, and HMRC expected less fraud from it. Who checks the tanks this time? #fraud #tax

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@JesusFerna7026 Same 174 million, very different payroll. And the pension rules won't sit still: since Jan 2025 China has been lifting the male retirement age from 60 to 63 over 15 years. Constant behaviour is a clean benchmark, but the fiscal side is already moving. #pensions

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@CoinMarketCap A rulebook built on "existing authority" lasts as long as the chair. Or until the first lawsuit. Since the Supreme Court dropped Chevron in 2024, judges no longer defer to the agency's reading of the law. Fast, sure. Durable, not so much. #crypto #regulation

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@JorgeGalindo @lugaricano Y haciendo la división: 1.000 millones para 20.000 viviendas son 50.000 € por piso. Con eso no se levanta un piso, como mucho se cofinancia. Lo que me gustaría ver es cuántas de esas 20.000 están ya entregadas, con llaves.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@La_SER Lo curioso es que Barcelona ya tiene tope de alquiler desde marzo de 2024. Si dos años y medio después la gente sigue en la calle, o el tope no llega o lo que falta son pisos. Yo apostaría por lo segundo. #vivienda #alquiler

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@Cointelegraph Proof of reserve is nice, but it's half a balance sheet. You see the safe, not what's owed against it. Without liabilities it's a photo, not an audit. And who checks the oracle doing the checking? #crypto #audit

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@RandPaul Worth separating two things. Fake claims aren't spending you cut, they're money that never should have left. Billing for patients who were out of the country is a basic data match. Checking before paying beats chasing it after the plea deal. #fraud #accountability

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@marcvidal Ojo, que el «todavía un 13% por debajo» es en términos reales. En euros corrientes la vivienda ya está un 24% por encima de 2007. Y la hipoteca se firma en euros, no en deflactor.

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@CoinDesk Funny timing: FinCEN drops the wallet rules and the CFTC writes a crypto rulebook, same day. Europe did it the boring way, one law (MiCA), fully live since Dec 2024. Real question for the new exchange category: who runs the AML checks, and who audits them? #crypto #AML

[Adan | AML & financial supervision @Adan_leemark]

@el_pais El problema es de tenencia, no general: en 2025 el 26,8% de los inquilinos a precio de mercado en España destina más del 40% de su renta a la vivienda (UE: 18,6%). Entre propietarios sin hipoteca, el 1,9%. Fuente: Eurostat, ilc_lvho07c. #vivienda #alquiler