In mid-February, I had an idea to exploit mispricings on prediction markets.
I spent the first week seeing if there was actually something there: building the strategy, testing it on historical data, and modeling slippage, fees, and execution as realistically as I could.
Then I spent the next 2 weeks building the system, integrating with @Polymarket, paper trading the strategy, and tightening the simulator until it more closely matched live conditions.
After that, I went live.
4 weeks later, the portfolio was up 170%. The strategy improved significantly during that stretch, but the edge held, so I added more capital.
Now, 5 weeks in:
• $100,238.94 in volume
• 3,122 trades across 1,423 markets
• 83.85% win rate
• ~2% PnL on volume
• ~$700 paid in Polymarket fees
• 8.157 Sharpe
I’ll write more about the full journey later. It’s been a long one.
For now, the next upgrade is moving from taker to maker: better entries, no fees, rebates, and hopefully a much better system.
P.S. If you find the account, don’t copy trade it. This is price sensitive, and being late can get ugly fast.
🚨 BREAKING: Claude can now build your entire resume and LinkedIn profile like a $500/hour executive recruiter from Robert Half. For free.
Here are 12 prompts that get you interview calls within 7 days:
(Save this before it disappears)
Hedge funds use Monte Carlo - retail uses luck
Most traders run one backtest and think they’re done.
But that’s not a strategy, that’s wishful thinking.
Funds run 10,000 simulations before risking a single dollar.
Here’s what Monte Carlo actually reveals:
> Take your historical returns: [+8%, -4%, +6%, -3%, +7%]
> Randomly reshuffle them 10,000 times
> Measure max drawdown across every possible path
Results:
> Median path: 12% drawdown
> 1 in 20 paths: 28% drawdown
> 1 in 100 paths: 43% drawdown
Then position sizing changes everything:
f_empirical = f_kelly × (1 - CV_edge)
More uncertainty → smaller size
Clearer edge → bigger size
Retail sees 12% and thinks that’s the risk.
Funds see 28% and design the whole risk model around it.
400 million real trades just dropped - publicly, for free.
No more excuses to skip this step.
One backtest tells you what happened.
Monte Carlo shows you what can happen.
3 years ago I authored 'THE STOP LOSS MYTH' in The Real World University.
A practical lesson which destroys the classical understanding of static stop-loss mechanics using probability distribution mathematics.
Now Nassim Taleb, world famous financial statistician finally confirms my work!
YOU CANNOT FADE ME - I AM THE BEST
The level at which patriarchy has dulled the minds of so many Nigerian men is insane to me… you are not satisfied with having a basic conversation with my assistant because she’s a woman and you believe conversations should be had “man to man”.
The reason I have an assistant is so that you can get answers to questions quickly and not interrupt my day with silly things… but you are special, king of boys. With your head like akpere.
@SolanaFndn and @solana_devs >>>>>
Solana Docs is FREE
Solana Cookbook is FREE
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Get in there, Lock in, Get good, earn good, live good on Solana🔥
I just launched an all-in-one template for cross-platform development, based on the stack I use myself everyday.
Expo, NextJS, TypeScript, Tailwind, Firebase, AppsFlyer, Authentication, Analytics, In-App Purchases, Stripe and a lot more, setup by defaultI just launched an all-in-one template for cross-platform development, based on the stack I use myself everyday.
Expo, NextJS, TypeScript, Tailwind, Firebase, AppsFlyer, Authentication, Analytics, In-App Purchases, Stripe and a lot more, setup by defaultI just launched an all-in-one template for cross-platform development, based on the stack I use myself everyday.
Expo, NextJS, TypeScript, Tailwind, Firebase, AppsFlyer, Authentication, Analytics, In-App Purchases, Stripe and a lot more, setup by defaultI just launched an all-in-one template for cross-platform development, based on the stack I use myself everyday.
Expo, NextJS, TypeScript, Tailwind, Firebase, AppsFlyer, Authentication, Analytics, In-App Purchases, Stripe and a lot more, setup by default.
It's day one all over again!🧍♂️
I'm launching the website and dashboard for a project I've been working on for quite some time 🚀
https://t.co/8NBGrxjDrq