stay on ground, show gratitude ..have a positive attitude.. and keep learning... #Not a sebi registered adviser, no recommendations in any share to buy or sell
Squats are hard...until you have to get up from a chair at 60.
Eating healthy is hard...until you realize your body is insulin resistant.
Doing cardio is hard...until you can't walk up stairs without being out of breath.
Want an easy life? Commit yourself to doing the hard stuff.
@jcrajan00 the policy capture issue is also prevalent in edible oil sector. despite import dependence of 60% in edible oil, majority of MSME oil mills (mustard Oil) are closed in Rajasthan.
People who are constantly complaining about something or other live a miserable life. Focus on what can be done. Save and divert your energy to solution or acceptance. #positivity
Timepass talk on Sunday
1. The Macros and the Micros
There’s a popular dialogue from the movie Border:
"Ghar ki chhat tapak rahi hai… baaki sab theek hai. Bablu ki haath ki haddi toot gayi… baaki sab theek hai."
That, in many ways, sums up India’s current economic backdrop, at least from an investor’s perspective.
Brent crude is hovering above $110. The Indian rupee breached the historic 96 mark against the USD for the first time.
US inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April 2026 (chart below), the highest since May 2023.
India’s wholesale inflation surged sharply to a 3.5-year high of 8.30% (provisional YoY) in April 2026, up from 3.88% in March 2026 and just 0.9% in April 2025.
Fuel and power inflation rose to 24.71% in April 2026 from 1.05% in March 2026, while crude petroleum and natural gas inflation touched 67.2%.
In contrast, headline retail inflation saw only a marginal uptick, inching up to 3.48% (provisional YoY) in April 2026 from 3.40% in March 2026.
That -4% gap between factory-level inflation (8%) and retail inflation (4%) suggests that manufacturers have not fully passed on the increase in input costs to consumers. As a result, corporate profit margins are taking a hit.
We have already seen several companies talk about raw material cost pressures impacting profitability. Q1FY27 could turn out to be even tougher on the margins front if inflationary pressures persist or intensify further.
Some of these costs will eventually have to be passed on to consumers, while some will continue to be absorbed by manufacturers. Either way, the pressure is building on both sides.
So, stay cognizant of the macro environment and avoid going overly aggressive with allocations.
That said, it’s not all gloomy.
Corporate sales growth for the December and March quarters has moved back into double-digit territory, and several small-cap companies have reported exceptionally strong PAT growth in Q4FY26.
2. Compressed Bio-Gas (CBG) theme picking up
VA Tech Wabag & PEAK Sustainability Ventures: Back in 2024, VA Tech Wabag and PEAK Sustainability Ventures signed an MoU with a shared vision to establish 100 Bio-CNG plants across sewage treatment facilities in India and other global markets.
On May 14, 2026, they officially launched the first commercial Bio-CNG project in Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh. The project is being developed at a 70 MLD (Million Litres per Day) Sewage Treatment Plant (STP), where raw methane generated during municipal sewage treatment is captured and upgraded into commercial-grade Bio-CNG. The story is just getting started!
Reliance Industries: After perfecting pilot plants in Jamnagar and its first commercial-scale plant in Barabanki, UP, Reliance has moved into absolute mega-scale deployment, heavily targeting Andhra Pradesh. RIL signed an MoU with the Andhra Pradesh government committing ₹65,000 crore to establish 500 CBG plants over the next 4 to 5 years. Reliance focuses on Agricultural Residues (Paddy Straw, Press Mud, Napier Grass, and Cow Dung) as the feedstock.
PlanET Biogas India & Delta Bio Gas: PlanET Biogas (a subsidiary of Germany’s PlanET Biogas Group) partnered with Hyderabad-based Delta Bio Gas to establish a 12 Tons Per Day (TPD) CBG facility in Andhra Pradesh.
Mahindra Waste to Energy Solutions: Mahindra has also silently commercialized its waste-to-energy footprint in Andhra Pradesh.
Here is where it gets more interesting.
Public Sector OMCs (IOCL, HPCL, BPCL): Under the central policy framework, state-run Oil Marketing Companies have eliminated market risk for private developers by issuing long-term Letters of Intent (LOIs). OMCs are entering 10-to-15-year assured offtake contracts to purchase retail CBG at fixed commercial rates (typically around ₹45–55 per kg), ensuring predictable cash flow models for incoming plants
3. Suven Life Sciences: Key Clinical Milestones on the Horizon
Suven has historically positioned itself as a specialty CNS-focused discovery company, working on therapies related to Alzheimer’s disease, Depression Schizophrenia, Sleep disorders, Cognitive impairment, and Other neuropsychiatric conditions.
CNS drug development has one of the highest clinical failure rates in pharma but carry huge rewards if successful.
Key Pipeline Updates
Masupirdine (SUVN-502) – Alzheimer’s agitation & depression
• Around 75% patient enrollment for the Phase 3 trial is complete.
• Final trial data is expected by Q2/Q3FY28, opening up potential licensing or partnership opportunities.
Samilisand (SUVN-3031)
• Phase 3 trials have commenced.
• Data is expected by end-2027 or early-2028.
SUVN-911
• Phase 2 trials have been completed.
• Data is expected within a month. If positive, the company may move into Phase 3 with a co-development partner to share R&D costs.
Other Pipeline Molecules
• SUVN-G4010 is expected to enter Phase 2 by year-end.
• SUVN-D4010 has completed Phase 1 and is progressing toward Phase 2.
Some of the deals in CNS space:
Eli Lilly announced a definitive agreement to acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals in a deal valued up to $7.8 billion
Johnson & Johnson acquired Intra-Cellular Therapies in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $14.6 billion
Neurocrine Biosciences announced an agreement to acquire Soleno Therapeutics in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $2.9 billion
I am not suggesting that Suven will necessarily be acquired by someone. The intention is only to highlight the kind of value successful CNS molecules can potentially generate. Management also hinted at potential commercial partnerships at a later stage.
That said, the success rate in CNS drug development is extremely low. No one can predict the future or guarantee clinical success, which is why these opportunities also come with very high risk.
4. RBZ Jewellers
I had touched upon this in one of the earlier editions of “Timepass Talk on Sunday,” and here’s the follow-up update.
The company remains on track to launch two large-format stores in Surat and Rajkot by Q2FY27. In addition, management is planning to open two mid-format stores in Gandhinagar and Eastern Ahmedabad within the current calendar year.
Naturally, inventory levels are expected to rise in the near term, which could put some pressure on the balance sheet. However, the company is gradually transforming itself into a larger organized retail jewellery franchise.
There are near-term headwinds due to the import duty hike and ongoing volatility in gold prices, but this could potentially evolve into a very interesting business by the end of FY27.
The stock is currently available at around 0.78x P/S and could offer even better value if sentiment around gold jewellery players remains weak.
At present, market liquidity is largely chasing themes such as AI/Data Centers, Electrification, and CDMO. However, value-oriented stories like these tend to get their due sooner or later.
5. EMS Companies, CCL, PCB, Ratnaveer
This past week, Thanks to @Vedansh_Ag, I came across an interesting development in the electronics manufacturing ecosystem, there is currently a shortage of Copper Clad Laminate (CCL), a critical raw material used in Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs).
At present, India is heavily dependent on imports for CCL requirements. Typically, CCL accounts for nearly 30–45% of the total PCB manufacturing cost. As a result, any sharp increase in CCL prices can significantly impact the margins of EMS and PCB players. In a prolonged shortage scenario, it could even lead to supply-chain disruptions and delivery delays.
Against this backdrop, Ratnaveer Precision Engineering is entering the Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) segment. Management believes this offers a first-mover advantage and could emerge as a meaningful long-term growth driver for the company.
The initial CapEx for one production line is around INR 45 crores. Management expects this line to generate approximately INR 108 crores in annual revenue, with EBITDA margins of around 20% and PAT margins of nearly 12%.
The project is expected to be commissioned by July 2026, with commercial sales likely to commence from September 2026.
While the contribution may initially account for only about 10% of the company’s annual revenue, and therefore may not materially impact near-term financials, it could become a strategically valuable asset over the longer term.
Importantly, the company also has plans to set up four additional production lines in the future.
That's all for this edition. Have a great Sunday!
Disclaimer: None or buy or sell recommendations. This publicly available information is shared for learning and education purposes.
I was listening to a fantastic podcast today and a very deep observation was made about global political climate.
People are not voting for anybody these days… they are actually voting against the worst option.
HINDUSTAN ZINC: CO DECLARED SUCCESSFUL BIDDER FOR JHANDAWALI–SATIPURA POTASH AND HALITE BLOCK IN RAJASTHAN || BLOCK COVERS 1,841 HECTARES AT G3 EXPLORATION LEVEL
I have taken a auto loan from HDFC Bank twice in last many years and each time I am very disappointed in terms of lack of transparency, processes and documentation.
I think this bank is unnecessarily placed at a mantle which is not really deserved.
Never again now.