Advisors Edge Research

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[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

Advisors Edge

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[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

George...Elon is the PT Barnum of our times...yes, he's brilliant...but the valuations are at a ridiculous level...what is $SPCX? It's whatever works for Elon at the moment...$TSLA...oh ya...autonomous drive and EV...that doesn't work anymore...now X...then Grok..AI...that's played out...now Space...what's next?
Maybe Elon will come up with a company promising "immortality" to humans?

Been doing this almost as long as you and I knew Peter also...and his values always work long-term...

I don't go long or short "cult stocks"...like Buffett said...you don't have to swing at every pitch...

[George Noble @gnoble79]

Peter Lynch would have HATED everything about this SpaceX IPO.

I know because I worked with him at Fidelity in the 1980s. Companies like this came across our desks all the time - the hot story, the charismatic founder, the trillion-dollar promise.

The answer was always the same:

Pass, move on, and find a REAL business.

Today, SpaceX prices at $135 a share. $1.77 TRILLION valuation while all the numbers that actually matter look TERRIBLE.

"Long shots almost never pay off."

Peter spent his entire career proving this. He made his money on Dunkin' Donuts, Taco Bell, Hanes, Chrysler - businesses you could walk into, understand in 30 seconds, and value off a napkin. He avoided the hot moonshot stocks of his era because the math never worked.

SpaceX is one GIANT long shot...

- Starship has to work at scale
- Starlink margins have to hold as the satellite competition floods in
- xAI has to catch OpenAI and Anthropic in a race it is currently losing
- Mars has to generate returns inside our lifetimes

Every one of those is a coin flip. But the $1.77 trillion price tag assumes ALL FOUR are near-certainties.

Peter taught me a stock should be describable in a sentence a sixth-grader could understand. SpaceX cannot be described in a paragraph an MBA can understand.

What even is SpaceX? Is it a rocket company? A satellite internet company? An AI company? A defense contractor? A Mars colonization project?

The honest answer is yes to all five. Which means no real answer at all.

That alone would be enough for Peter to pass.

He also had a soft spot for what he called the boring profitable company. His favorite example was Kellogg's. As he put it, no matter how bad things get, people still eat cornflakes.

Now look at SpaceX.

It lost $4.9 BILLION in 2025. The xAI division alone burned $6.36 billion at the operating line. The only segment actually making real money is Starlink, at $11.4 billion in revenue.

Strip out Starlink and you are left with a money furnace.

Peter would have looked at this and bought Kellogg's instead. He would have laughed at the idea of paying $1.77 trillion for a company that loses money everywhere except one segment.

By the time a hot company hits the public market, the institutions have already taken the upside and the public is being handed the bag.

Just look at this offering:

30% allocated to retail investors worth $22.5 BILLION. That's triple the industry norm.

I have seen this with Pets .com, Webvan, Snap, Peloton, Robinhood, Coinbase, and many more.

Every one of them was the future on day one. And every one of them destroyed retail capital after the hype faded.

SpaceX enters the Nasdaq-100 15 days from now. MSCI inclusion starts tomorrow.

An estimated $22 to $27 BILLION in mechanical, forced buying from index funds is the entire short-term bull case.

Peter built his career getting into stocks BEFORE the institutions arrived. He believed your edge came from being early.

SpaceX is the opposite - every passive index fund in America is about to be forced to buy this thing at $1.77 trillion whether they want to or not.

The smart money is NOT buying SpaceX today.

You shouldn't either.

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

If Robin is doing an ATM here...after selling stock to the institutions at $92...I would fire him...long $NKTR...but management is not Tier 1 unlike $LQDA...

[Edward @epoon2006]

@JoseRestonVA @somecuriousgirl What are your thoughts on $NKTR now? Due to the constant selling, I wonder if company is doing an ATM?

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

Again...not a Strong Signal...Paul B. Manning filed a Rule 144 ...this is an "intent" to sell...for 200k shares...he owns over 6.6 Million!

Sorry...if you want to learn about what constitutes a Strong Signal...come to a source that actually did insider transactions for years at the Big Bank...

https://t.co/wm7Hb1Lzqk

[CorporateActionsUSA @actions_usa]

Director Manning Paul B just dumped 12.78 million dollars of his own equity in a manual discretionary exit from $LQDA. This move is part of a massive 55.28 million dollar coordinated insider selling wave over the last 30 days, signaling that management is aggressively de-risking into the S&P SmallCap 600 inclusion hype despite recent profitability claims.

[CorporateActionsUSA @actions_usa]

Director Manning Paul B just dumped 12.78 million dollars of his own equity in a manual discretionary exit from $LQDA. This move is part of a massive 55.28 million dollar coordinated insider selling wave over the last 30 days, signaling that management is aggressively de-risking into the S&P SmallCap 600 inclusion hype despite recent profitability claims.

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

Learn how to read insider activity...this is NOT a strong signal...I spent 10 years at the Big Bank doing insider transactions.
Paul B. Manning owns over 6.6Million shares of LQDA...this is just nothing...

AER Insiders Edge
https://t.co/wm7Hb1Lzqk
We are in "beta" but developing the model to give "strong signals"...

[CorporateActionsUSA @actions_usa]

Paul B Manning is liquidating a massive equity position following a 13.38 percent single-day rally in $LQDA.

- Volume: 200,000 shares
- Liquidity Impact: 12.37 percent of 30-day ADTV
- 10b5-1 Plan: No
- Gross Proceeds: $11,138,000.00

CONVICTION SCORE: 8.5/10

MARKET THESIS: This is an opportunistic, manual exit executed immediately following a significant price spike. Because this sale lacks a 10b5-1 pre-scheduled mandate, the timing suggests the executive is actively capitalizing on current market volatility rather than adhering to a long-term liquidity schedule. Given the high volume relative to average daily trading, this distribution is likely to create immediate overhead supply and dampen further upside momentum.

Are you fading this massive insider exit or catching the falling knife? 👇

#LQDA #Biotech #InsiderSelling #WallStreet

🤖 AI-Curated Data Pipeline | Not Financial Advice

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

AER Insiders Edge...we monitor the small to medium concentrated HF's who consistent produce Alpha!
Why try to compete with the smartest minds in the investment business when you can leverage them.
Our experience is unique...11 years at the Big Bank doing "insider transactions"...

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

No idea...this seems to happen all the time with biotechs...the FOMO, quick money is so widespread today, it's crazy...but if RA Capital is willing to add big at $11.52 secondary along with other Tier 1 Hedge Funds...I'll take buying shares at $7.84 a gift this afternoon...this is where the individual investor can win.
I added today...

[mar @BioLobotomy]

$xbi Anyone got any idea why the $ARTV selloff is so ridiculously brutal? All the way back to cash as if they didn't just publish amazing data, and potentially best in class data in SJD.

Is the only thing that matters in biotech having plenty of catalysts scheduled?

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

Too early...financing won't show up until next 13F's...

[SwoleStreet @718dash703]

$NKTR are we that early to where it’s not even listed on any of these 13Fs?

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

The IPO Exit Trap: How Insiders Will Use Index Funds and Individual Investors to Cash Out...

Just dropped...

https://t.co/ViCb3fK7YJ

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

I love all the false news on Twitter...pumping stocks...this interview was on May 24, 2024 and $NVDA was $94...now it's $215 and OpenAi is making bad noises...
Are we at the top, I don't know...but this reminds me of 2000 and I was there...
If you want to learn what the "Smart Money" guys are buying...come to https://t.co/UFfgx8aGVi
No...I'm not some Twitter bro...
I did "insider sales" for 9 years at JPMorgan...I know who the players are and how to track them....and they are not Stan, or PTJ...they're traders and don't send a "strong signal"...

[Milk Road AI @MilkRoadAI]

Paul Tudor Jones just went on CNBC and said three words that matter: "I bought more."

This is the man who called Black Monday in 1987, who has run his fund for 46 years and who currently manages over $83 billion.

When he buys, it's worth understanding why.

His thesis was simple and precise.

He drew a straight line between what's happening in AI right now and the PC productivity boom of the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Apple dropping the first personal computer in 1977 was like ChatGPT in 2022, a moment of possibility that most people didn't act on.

Microsoft bringing the PC to mass commercial adoption in 1981 was the real inflection, the moment it became a business necessity and Paul Tudor Jones said Claude Code, launched in January of this year, is that same moment for AI.

The PC productivity boom that followed 1981 drove one of the greatest sustained equity bull markets in history.

If PTJ's analogy holds and he has one of the best track records of anyone alive at reading these moments then we are in the first inning of a multi year AI equity supercycle, not the final one.

He didn't pick individual stocks but rather bought baskets, hyperscalers, semiconductors, the whole stack.

Because when you believe in a transformational technology cycle, you don't try to pick the winner, you buy the infrastructure.

This is exactly why Milk Road analysts hold these assets in their portfolios.

Go PRO to see exactly what they hold, the allocations, and the full thesis behind every position, link below.

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

Good catch...and you are right...another 10B5-1 sale which means very little...this plan was set up months ago...I did "insider transactions" for 9 years at JPMorgan...
We have a proprietary system we developed for finding "strong signals" on 13F and Form 4 offerings...we are in "beta" now...AER.
But come subscribe...advisorsedge.substack.com
We have something that no one else has...experience and analysis!
And yes...long $LQDA which our system picked up at $13/share.

[BH @TcheeseRa]

$LQDA Yes, RJ sold another 75,000 shares over the past 3 days. Yes, this was planned well in advance as part of a 10(b)5-1 transaction. No, it is not an open market sale. These execute automatically based on predetermined price/date/volume triggers. With the stock having reached 3 month highs in recent days, these got triggered. Does he regret it knowing what’s coming next week? 💯

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

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[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

Fred...what happened to the gold miners today? The Warsh testimony?...

[fred hickey @htsfhickey]

Must be (Taco) Tuesday.

Headline: "Trump extends ceasefire in Iran, citing ‘seriously fractured’ Iranian government"

Don't have a clue what the markets will do tomorrow - but extending the shutdown of the Straight of Hormuz even longer is not good news. We're now on day 54. 54 days divided by 7 = 7.7 weeks - far longer than the 4-6 weeks of war length expected by the Trump administration. The damage to the global economy just keeps on piling up and there is no clear end in sight for the Strait's closure.

One has to wonder how Wall Street/investors can continue to swallow the imminent "great" deal's coming tomorrow! pronouncements (virtually every day) much longer.
https://t.co/jPOMszxzEc

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

The most feared 9 words...“I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help"— President Ronald Reagan.

How Private Credit started..

Totally agree...was at Bear Stearns in 2008 and saw MBS collapse coming...

Same mess unfolding with PE/PC for last few years...

But what do they have in common? US Government passed Community Housing Act in 1977 telling the banks to basically lend to everyone for a home...and then for PE/PC...

Dodd Frank Act in 2010 basically wiping out the major banks lending for PC...Shadow banks like Blackstone, Apollo, Ares step in...make billions...

Always watch the laws the government passes after the disaster happens...

Read this...

https://t.co/roiNU2jvmo

Come subscribe to our substack for wealth managers, family officers, and serious DIY investors...

We are a former 20+ year top performing portfolio manager

https://t.co/wm7Hb1Lzqk

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

Adam...why do you think that is? Tier 3 management team?

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

Failure to acknowledge obvious market analogs is fascinating here. $NKTR

Like, for example, how Dupixent with ~half the efficacy of JAKis does ~10x the sales in atopic derm….

…what exactly, is the bar for Rezpeg in AA in that case? And, has it already been met??

OBVIOUS market analog. Completely ignored.

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

George...been around a long time like yourself...if they wanted Mr. Market to operate they would have done it years ago...but the elites are afraid of people in the streets, guns, chaos...etc. When we have a capitulation, they are going to bring out another QE...but this time with YCC...You're right on asset allocation...gold is the only anchor.
They will have to do this, because of all the complacency...and the fact everyone is over allocated risk...
Yes, Henry (High income, Not Rich Yet) and Baby Boomers...stocks do go down!

[George Noble @gnoble79]

Private credit didn't blow up because of Blue Owl or bad software loans or AI disruption.

Those were SYMPTOMS.

The disease is the same one I've seen 3 times in 45 years on Wall Street:

Too much money, too much leverage, too little discipline, and a financial product sold as "safe" to people who didn't understand what they owned.

Private credit grew to $3 trillion on a simple lie - that you could earn 9-10% yields with "semi-liquidity" on assets that have no liquid market.

That's not investing. That's volatility laundering. And the Street dressed it up beautifully.

"Private credit." Sounds so exclusive, so sophisticated. Illiquid loan sharking would be more accurate.

And don't get me started on "private equity", another Wall Street rebrand designed to make LEVERAGED BUYOUTS sound like fine wine. They changed the name because the old one scared people. The risk didn't change. Just the marketing.

Wall Street has always been brilliant at one thing: rebranding risk as exclusivity and selling it to people who don't know what they're buying.

Now add oil at $113 a barrel and watch the whole thing come apart.

The Strait of Hormuz is shut. The IEA is calling it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The Fed held rates steady yesterday and the market just RIPPED AWAY expectations for even a single cut this year.

Oil is the fuse. But the TNT was packed years ago.

Oil above $100 means inflation stays sticky. No rate cuts. Every overleveraged borrower inside these private credit portfolios gets squeezed harder every single month.

Interest coverage ratios deteriorate. Defaults tick up. Valuations get marked down.

And when valuations drop, the leverage stacked on top of that leverage (the "back-leverage" that banks provide using those same loans as collateral) starts to unwind.

And JPMorgan already started.
They marked down software loan collateral and restricted lending to private credit funds. When the biggest bank in America pulls back, that's a SIGNAL.

High-yield spreads just surged to 470 basis points. The widest in years. Credit markets are screaming what equity markets haven't fully heard yet.

I've watched this exact pattern before.

- Junk bonds in the '80s
- Dot-com leverage in 2000
- Structured mortgage products in 2007

The product changes every time but the architecture never does:

Wall Street creates something complex, sells it as safe, layers leverage on top, markets the yields to retail investors, and collects enormous fees on the way in.

Then something breaks and the gates go up.

The people who built the machine are fine - they already got paid. The people who bought the brochure are trapped behind locked doors.

$265 billion in market cap already wiped from the major PE firms. I don't think we're close to done.

And you know what? That's FANTASTIC.

Perhaps we'll finally get some real price discovery. Just say no to mark to model.

Holders of this fine merchandise will get the returns they deserve. The pension funds, endowments, and insurance companies that piled into this garbage should take the hit. No bailouts. NONE.

This nonsense has gone on far too long and moral hazard is the predictable result.

The only way to end this insanity is to let Mr. Market operate.

Allow price discovery. Allow bankruptcy. No more money printing. No more crony capitalism. No more extend and pretend.

Blow it all up. That is the only way.

"But what about the individuals who get hurt!"

Better to take the hit now and reset than continue down this road. Hyper-financialization is destroying our economy and enriching the fortunes of the few. This must stop. NOW.

But I have little confidence it will. We'll get more of the same:

Rule changes. Special accommodations. The inevitable big ease will come.

Count on it.

AND BUY GOLD

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

$PROP...any reason stock is getting hit hard today? Or are the Twitwit little boys just disappointed that stock isn't much higher and we don't have a refinancing deal yet?

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

Interesting to see Raj from Fidelity buy up all the shares with retail panicking with the move from 65 to 35 in the last few months..

[Adam May @A_May_MD]

I swear I've never seen a market understand a disease/disease landscape worse than atopic derm.
The $NKTR and $APGE price actions are absolutely WRONG today, and I'll tell you why.

Apparently (?) the market is selling $NKTR today because of $PFE data with their phase 2 IL4/13+TSLP data this morning. If you asked me before the market opened if I thought this would affect $NKTR at all I would've said "no". In fact, in private conversations before open I did just that.

The $PFE drug is yet another IL4/13 axis drug, adding in TSLP, which has a checkered past and may or may not actually add to IL4/13 blockade (there is both some reason to believe that the target is not active in AtD at al and/or that it is not additive to IL4/13 since these are all heavily TH2-skewed targets).

The $PFE drug vies for first line positioning, where IL4/13 is used...

...for the millionth time...THE ENTIRE POINT OF $NKTR'S DRUG IS TO BE USED ***AFTER*** IL4/13 DRUGS. There is no world in which a patient should fail an IL4/13+TSLP drug and then go onto a plain old IL4/13 drug....This is where a completely differentiated MoA like NKTR's is needed...this is the *ENTIRE* point of the drug...

So who could the $PFE news actually significantly affect?

$APGE!!!

$APGE is trying to develop long acting IL4/13 drugs to take their share of this first line IL4/13 market...the $PFE news gives them a DIRECT competitor in that market, with $PFE's drug adding an extra MoA that $APGE lacks.

$APGE went with OX40 as their IL4/13 combo partner target, because they observed that TSLP had failed in prior trials and that the TSLP pathway simply overlaps with IL4/13 (meaning it might be a redundant target).

$APGE went with OX40, which as we all now know is potentially dead in AtD due to cancer risks.

So, $APGE should be down today, right? Right?! They now have a direct competitor in $PFE that is vying for space in their same line of therapy/target. New competitive risk, right?!

Well, $APGE is *GREEN* today, while $NKTR is -10%.

This. Market. Reaction. Is. Wrong. Period.

These price actions should be reversed by any sane logic.

If you want to argue $APGE should be flat/green because the AtD market is so massive that it can handle more drugs, then fine. But there is absolutely ZERO reason for $NKTR to be -10% while $APGE is green on this "news". $PFE is a DIRECT competitor for $APGE versus an oblique competitor for $NKTR at worst.

I cannot comprehend how it is possible that people STILL do not understand the "differentiated MoA" use case of $NKTR's rezpeg. It is truly hard for me to fathom how a market can be this STUPID and inefficient.

As far as market inefficiencies go, the AtD space is the gift that keeps on giving. Absolutely insane.

Yet again, moving more stuff to buy $NKTR -10%. I'd love short more $APGE >$73 too...but alas, capital constraints push more to the better r/r of the two. There's clearly no competition there AFAIC.

[Advisors Edge Research @AdvisorsEdge]

Long both...two of the best drug companies out there undervalued...added today on the $NKTR scare again...Adam...thank you for the clear thinking, again!

[guêpe349 @slk349390919]

@A_May_MD $NKTR isn’t the only one market is getting 100% wrong. $LQDA