mar

Usually sick.
Datagobbler, biotech analyses may emanate from me occasionally
she/her

Long:
$PEPG $ELTX $CRBP $NKTR

[mar @BioLobotomy]

$xbi Predicted $ENGN's failure after a cursory look yesterday. Remember, you don't need to manipulate data like this if your drug is good.

Maybe I should start shorting, considering I predicted $GOSS too.

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@RiskInhibitor tell me about it bruh. Got caught in the ARTV selloff before IMVT data, then the CRBP selloff, then ABVX, now CELC lmao. Worst month ever for me

[mar @BioLobotomy]

$IDYA Ideaaayaaaaaa come oooon. Please give us a more detailed safety breakdown already. Also I hate when biotechs report grade 3 and 4s together obscuring the actual grade 4 rate.

Also, fix ya'lls email alerts already, they don't fucking work.

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@JacobPlieth Did they detail any safety?

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@biot_notes @AnotherBio Can I ask what you mean by "doesn't look diff in the slightest"?

[mar @BioLobotomy]

Sometimes in biotech people start attaching their identity and pride to a company, or to defending an investigational product.

Just got insulted for criticizing an obvious PR move. What are we doing?

None of these companies, nor the share price, will reward you for this.

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@spontonic Dude I think it's a promising product. But I think the bullish framing of the outcome of the dose reduction is just PR, and I have significant doubts that the lower dose won't take an efficacy hit in phase 3.

What's wrong with being skeptical of PR?

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@spontonic All their little experiment proved, really, is that the dose is robustly therapeutic. But if PK were truly on their side here, and exposure is so similar at this dose that the efficacy should remain similar too, then they never would've needed to pursue 200mg to begin with.

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@spontonic I like the idea (which their PR relentlessly implies) that tumor regressions continuing after dose reduction means that the dose will be similarly effective overall. Even though such reductions usually affect durability and depth of response once extrapolated.

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@HOThomasWPhelps Pretty beefy short presence, no?

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@A_May_MD Be honest, are your consistent buys the only reason it goes up and down like a rollercoaster instead of straight down?

[mar @BioLobotomy]

Whoa, are we really gonna see $NKTR below 2B market cap soon?

[mar @BioLobotomy]

Whoa, are we really gonna see $NKTR below 2B market cap soon?

[mar @BioLobotomy]

I love baiting people smarter than me with vague questions so that they'll over-elaborate. Then I slowly steal their wisdom like a Half-Life Headcrab by latching onto their brains.

$CRVS

love yall

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@HOThomasWPhelps @JoseRestonVA How much promise do you think CRVS' product has in asthma and HS, mechanistically? I know HS's ideal treatment pathways are still hotly debated, for example. Perhaps CRVS could better serve as a background med in a combo for severe asthma/HS patients?

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@BioValues @TKkamen The one with 50% PRs in OC?

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@bingbingbom But hey if I'm wrong here I'll figure out why and learn from it. It's all good

[mar @BioLobotomy]

Officially a $CRBP bag holder now that's trading under cash. Could not have imagined this even this morning lmao

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@bingbingbom GUTS ran up quite massively though? In fact I made money off that bullshit. Funnily enough it ran up into the same type of catalyst (weight maintenance) even though their evidence was kinda weak at the time and they had no real alternative assets like CRBP's onco.

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@bingbingbom Considering there were already multiple upside bets by whales (at prices worse than my average) I'm fairly confident.

Trading at cash with multiple catalysts coming up and a multi-year runway typically makes a run-up more, not less, likely. Dunno though, I've been wrong before!

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@bingbingbom Then I'd miss out on a run-up I'm confident in after researching. So i'd take a 8% loss on a big position when there's no reason to (at this junction).

Also I don't have any bios that I'm confident in without already having a position at the moment. CCCC if it drops a bit, maybe

[mar @BioLobotomy]

@bingbingbom I think it'll go to at least $11 over the next few months. But I had to oversize my position significantly to DCA, due to it unexpectedly falling below cash

I'm not a fan of oversizing so I consider it a failure on my part, and until I'm well in the green i'll say I'm bagholding

[mar @BioLobotomy]

Bought some more at $7.5 feeling like a gamestop addict or something. Like damn