Air-Moving Device

China and the world in data and graphs | 一点浩然气 千里快哉风

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

I do want to point out that I’m in no way against centralized volume-based procurement and generics. In fact, I think they’re fundamentally a great idea for patients, given that their safety and effectiveness are demonstrated with rigorous testing and proper regulatory oversight.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

Thread: I found data fraud in multiple clinical trials for generic drugs in China.
I've seen limited coverage outside China of the recent controversy over 集采 — centralized procurement of drugs, especially generics. It is a hugely important issue close to my heart.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

@AlecStapp Distribution of earrings per share and return on equity in the Chinese stock market.

https://t.co/1xQqxgLYHc

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

An example of plotting data, finding sth interesting, but turns out it's known for decades. Downside of not being in the field and knowing the literature...

"Earnings management" in Chinese stock market: earnings (EPS) tend to be (+), and guess why returns (ROE) have a 6% peak.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

The same trend holds for both urban (城市) and rural (乡村) areas.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

Younger Chinese are marrying later than previous generations.

Here I plotted when different aged cohorts of Chinese first married and saw clear trend of younger generations delaying marriage.

Source: Seventh National Population Census, National Bureau of Statistics (2020)

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

@isaacstonefish I first found this during the Nov 2022 protests (https://t.co/xIDhIpW0fX)

NYT (https://t.co/TQHH7ZI3M8) and David Thiel @ Stanford (https://t.co/HFbwFAMMAV) argued the flooding might be from data survivorship bias.

Curious as well to what data X has on this.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

Thread: Search for Beijing/Shanghai/other cities in Chinese on Twitter and you'll mostly see ads for escorts/porn/gambling, drowning out legitimate search results.
Data analysis in this thread suggests that there has been a *significant* uptick in these spam tweets.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

@nikitabier @fxtrader Hi Nikita, are you referring to something like this? I found this during the Nov 2022 protests. NYT and David Thiel (Stanford Internet Observatory) argued that such findings might be from data survivorship bias. Curious if you have more data on this.

https://t.co/hctZX8krOc

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

Thread: Search for Beijing/Shanghai/other cities in Chinese on Twitter and you'll mostly see ads for escorts/porn/gambling, drowning out legitimate search results.
Data analysis in this thread suggests that there has been a *significant* uptick in these spam tweets.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

Update: 最近公布的《全国药品集中采购文件》增加了两项关于生产环节变更的规定：变更时需公开变更内容、未发生变更的企业在同等价位时优先入选。

明显弱于之前征求意见稿中的硬性规定：首个中选周期内不得进行重要生产环节的变更，否则取消中选资格。

大概是多方博弈的结果，baby steps也好吧。

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

Thread: prevalence of post-approval changes in Chinese generic drugs and jicai 集采 drugs.

I analyzed >160k supplemental filings and found widespread post-approval changes in generics and jicai drugs. Importantly, jicai drugs underwent more changes than non-jicai counterparts.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

@AndyKroll @propublica Might be of interest: https://t.co/YTXOakiK3P

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

DOGE/Musk preferentially cancelled grants and contracts to recipients in counties that voted for Harris.

Among cancellations w/ election data available, 92.9% & 86.1% cancelled grants and contracts went to Harris counties, representing 96.6% & 92.4% of total dollar amounts.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

DOGE/Musk preferentially cancelled grants and contracts to recipients in counties that voted for Harris.

Among cancellations w/ election data available, 92.9% & 86.1% cancelled grants and contracts went to Harris counties, representing 96.6% & 92.4% of total dollar amounts.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

It is therefore possible that they made cancellations unbiasedly across the Trump-Harris political spectrum but preferentially disclosed ones to Biden counties for publicity purposes.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

DOGE/Musk preferentially cancelled grants and contracts to recipients in counties that voted for Harris.

Among cancellations w/ election data available, 92.9% & 86.1% cancelled grants and contracts went to Harris counties, representing 96.6% & 92.4% of total dollar amounts.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

Potential caveat: DOGE doesn't specify how it chose certain contract/grant cancellations to disclose. They claim the ones disclosed represent "~30% of total savings".

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

中文版：https://t.co/aOgStfu7Zp

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

Thread: prevalence of post-approval changes in Chinese generic drugs and jicai 集采 drugs.

I analyzed >160k supplemental filings and found widespread post-approval changes in generics and jicai drugs. Importantly, jicai drugs underwent more changes than non-jicai counterparts.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

Again, I’m in no way against centralized volume-based procurement and generics. In fact, I think they’re fundamentally a great idea for patients, given that their safety and effectiveness are demonstrated with rigorous testing and proper regulatory oversight.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

Thread: prevalence of post-approval changes in Chinese generic drugs and jicai 集采 drugs.

I analyzed >160k supplemental filings and found widespread post-approval changes in generics and jicai drugs. Importantly, jicai drugs underwent more changes than non-jicai counterparts.

[Air-Moving Device @AirMovingDevice]

While these production-related changes do not necessarily affect drug efficacy or safety, NMPA does not disclose the regulatory tests and inspections done (if any) that addresses whether new suppliers, processes, or sites materially impact drug composition or performance.