Akbar Osman

CEO Macrostake AS. MBA (siviløkonom), interested in finance, global macro, history, and philosophy, fascinated by Bitcoin, Crypto / Digital asset space.

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

But consumers are still under pressure, real rates remain high, and the recent liquidity relief has come mostly from lower oil and lower bond volatility. My read: firmer growth, but still a late-stage feel underneath.
2/2

Read here:
https://t.co/xyAx7Nwv5z

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

New issue of Calculated Risk Regime Watch is out.

Manufacturing is strengthening, job openings rebounded, and the rebound is starting to look less narrow.
1/2

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

Part I of my Macro Reading Lab series. This chapter explores the foundations of the business cycle and why it remains the core driver of asset returns.

For those interested in systematic, cycle-based macro investing, this project may be worth following.

https://t.co/DHwvwOUZvF

[Secular Talk ([email protected]) @KyleKulinski]

BRO I’M FUCKING DEAD

[Zulfi Jawad @pen1cillin]

I love this quote.

Ayatollah Beheshti.

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

@donnelly_brent how can this particular cover translated intoo short USD thesis? There are now clear contrarian thesis I guess. Don`t you think so?

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

@CustmrSupprtSAS Thank you for your reply! I did manage to contact with someone from costumer care and he will try to help with this issue. I will contact you if that is not working. Again, thank you for your sincere response!

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

@SAS Hi SAS, I need a contact channel to request proof of travel for a completed flight. Online Forms don’t allow sufficient detail. Could you please guide me? Thanks.

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

@FRValue Such a wise man

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

@PeterLBrandt destilled his whole trading approach in one tweet. You can obtain 10000$ worth of trading education if you are serious about trading from this tweet. Actually this is more valuable than that!
Thanks for your generousity, Peter!

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

I am a Bayesian. Look it up. Google it
For any given market for about two dozen markets I have binary narratives rolling around in my head
Truly binary
For example, I have a narrative for $200,000 Bitcoin and $30,000 Bitcoin. I take both narratives seriously but may not be willing to place the same amount of money on each of them
But my get size on each changes over time based primarily on how price behaves relative to the fundamentals that emerge. If bullish news produces price weakness I add to the probability of the narrative for price decline
There comes a point when as a Bayesian I might give one narrative a 60 or 70% probability ranking. That is about as high as I ever go.
And I do not immediately enter a trade when the 70% level is reached. Instead, I wait until I see an asymmetric R:r point on the chart with a defined risk.
By defined risk I mean some adverse price level that if reached would move my Bayesian gear box back into neutral
And when I place a bet, I never risk more than 8/10th of 1% of my capital pot.
The above explains how I think about markets and trading.
I trade primarily futures markets, selected etf and Bitcoin.
I monitor about 40 to 50 different markets and trade each maybe 3 times per year on average
I consider myself first and foremost to be a risk manager
I write about this process every week for members of my private community

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

By the way, I highly recommend the book (The great rebalancing) by @michaelxpettis
It is essential to understand today`s changing global trade and financial order.

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

1/
Outcome bias and hindsight often shape our beliefs more than we realize.
I’ve been thinking about this after reading The Great Rebalancing by @michaelxpettis .

A short reflection on why our explanations of success/failure are often illusions — and how to avoid this trap 🧵

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

5/
So what should we do?

1. Stay humble.
You don’t know the whole story. Nobody does. Stay curious.
2. Be critical.
Don’t blindly trust narratives. Think for yourself.
3. Focus on process, not outcomes.
Results are noisy. Process is what you control.

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

@AndreasSteno Not yet

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

@JulianMI2 Agree! It is a very definition of a ponzi scheme.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

WOW. This would be historic:

Both Elon Musk and Coinbase's CEO have now proposed putting ALL US spending on blockchain.

This means $6.9 TRILLION of US spending PER YEAR would be placed on a decentralized ledger.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[Akbar Osman @AkbarOsman5]

@spectatorindex Musk factor