Alpha

AI Infrastructure Research / Stock analysis
Semiconductors | Compute | Robotics | Supply Chains, Mapping the companies building the AI age,Hunting the next 10x

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

$MXL up 10% today and the reason is worth understanding properly.

Most people have been watching MaxLinear as an optical interconnect story. Keystone PAM4 DSP inside 400G and 800G transceivers. Rushmore targeting 1.6T. That part of the story has been playing out exactly as expected.

But today’s news is about something different. MaxLinear and Los Alamos National Laboratory just announced a collaboration on hardware accelerated OpenZFS storage for large scale HPC environments. The numbers from the joint development are pretty striking. 39x speedup for writes. 7x for reads. Against NVMe flash-based infrastructure.

Los Alamos isn’t a typical customer to validate against. This is a federally funded national security lab running nuclear weapons simulation, climate modeling, and some of the most demanding supercomputing workloads on the planet. If Panther performs at LANL scale, it performs anywhere.
The CEO said it plainly on the Q1 call. 60% of data center spend is in memory. Slow memory access quietly kills inference performance at scale. That’s the problem Panther is designed to solve, and today Los Alamos just publicly confirmed it works.

Panther revenue is expected to at least double in 2026 versus 2025. The optical interconnect story was already the first growth leg. Storage acceleration is the second one, and it just got a national security lab’s seal of approval.

Both markets are accelerating at the same time, and both are running on $MXL silicon.

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

$MXL keeps adding to the story.
Trinity platform just dropped today. URX850 SoC delivering carrier-grade bidirectional wireless backhaul at up to 10Gbps. What used to require multiple separate components, switching, QoS, wireless link aggregation, encryption, and timing functions, now sits on a single chip. Bharti Airtel, one of India’s largest carriers, is already on record saying they’ve been waiting for exactly this kind of integration.

The part worth understanding is that this has nothing to do with the optical interconnect story I was posting about earlier. That’s data centers. This is cell towers connecting to core networks. Two completely separate markets, both accelerating, both running on $MXL silicon.
Keystone PAM4 DSP for 400G and 800G optical transceivers in AI data centers. Rushmore targeting 1.6T. Panther going after memory latency. And now Trinity for 5G wireless backhaul at 10Gbps. The product roadmap keeps expanding into infrastructure layers that aren’t slowing down.

OEM products based on Trinity expected H1 2027. URX850 already deployed globally across major carrier networks. Available now.
This is what a picks and shovels position in multiple infrastructure cycles looks like.

🔗https://t.co/QdtqoySThy

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

. $OPTT is actively pursuing NATO market contracts, and the market is starting to notice that this isn’t just a small marine company anymore. DHS buoys running, autonomous docking demo done, pipeline at $163.9M, and now Europe.

And then there’s this from Anduril. US Army just awarded them the Battle Management contract for Western Pacific missile defense, with Lattice integrating distributed sensor data into a single networking layer. From sensor to shooter.

Worth noting that $OPTT is an official #Anduril partner. Their PowerBuoys are already feeding real-time data into Lattice off San Diego. Every time Anduril’s Lattice wins a new contract, the sensor network it depends on gets more valuable. OPTT is already a node in that network. The pieces keep connecting.

There are risks involved, of course, so please be sure to look into it thoroughly.

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

Good catch, and fair question.

The Q1 earnings call language says “transfer of the PDK to a high-volume semiconductor foundry is underway, with the majority of the integration expected in H2 2026.” They didn’t name the foundry directly. TSMC is the most logical candidate given the scale implied, but I should be clear that it hasn’t been officially confirmed. My post used TSMC as the likely read, not a confirmed fact. Worth keeping that distinction in mind.

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

A lot has changed since this post $LWLG. And a lot hasn’t. When I wrote this in April, GlobalFoundries and Tower were the foundry story. $TSMC was not yet in the picture. One Fortune Global 500 customer was at Stage 3.

Four Fortune Global 500 companies are now at Stage 3. One became four. CEO Yves has said publicly that roughly 80% of Stage 3s eventually advance to Stage 4, which is where volume production begins. And right now, $LWLG is actively negotiating High Volume terms with at least one of those Fortune 500 customers, with H2 2027 as the production timeline target.

The foundry story also expanded. GF and Tower were already in. TSMC PDK integration is now on deck. GF, Tower, and TSMC combined represent the vast majority of global silicon photonics production capacity. Getting Perkinamine into all three means any photonics designer at any of those fabs can now design around it without switching foundries.

Cash hit $100M by May 11, up from $75.1M on March 31. That $25M increase during the quarter lines up with wafer run timing. Full silicon photonics wafer runs take 12 to 16 weeks. If runs launched in January are tracking for June delivery, the tape-out data is coming soon.

The honest risks haven’t changed either. Revenue is still essentially zero, $29,000 in Q1. The stock has pulled back significantly from the $18.71 52-week high to the $11 range, which tells you this is a highly volatile pre commercial name. Stage 3 doesn’t guarantee Stage 4. The 20% of Stage 3s that don’t advance are a real outcome to consider. And the tape-out data, when it comes, will be the next major read on whether the technology performs in real foundry conditions at the specs customers actually need.

The original thesis was exactly this. Not the headlines. Whether the tech ends up inside real systems. Four Fortune 500 customers at Stage 3, TSMC coming online, and High Volume negotiations underway is as close to that confirmation as you get before revenue shows up.

Still watching. 😉

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

I started buying $LWLG about a year ago, and it’s already up around 10x.

The risk is still there though. That hasn’t changed.
It’s still early, not proven at scale, and revenue hasn’t caught up yet.
But what has changed is the progress.
For a long time it felt like one of those “cool tech, but when does it actually happen” stories. Lately that’s starting to shift.
They’re not just talking about the tech anymore. It’s starting to show up inside real foundry flows like GlobalFoundries and Tower.

Once something gets into a PDK and shows up in tape outs, it’s a totally different ballgame. People can actually start designing around it.
On top of that, some customers are moving past early testing and getting closer to real products.

That’s what I’m really watching.
Not the headlines. Just whether this tech actually ends up inside real systems.
So what exactly is $LWLG’s technology?

Thread🧵👇

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

When I wrote about $OPTT in April, it was 1 buoy in the water off San Diego. One DHS contract. One proof point.

Today $OPTT announced it’s actively expanding defense engagement efforts in Europe. Let me show you what’s happened in between.

Five concurrent PowerBuoy deployments in the U.S. now. Three for DHS, one for the U.S. Navy, one for a research institution. Three WAM-Vs and a PowerBuoy operating in the UAE. Active deployments in Greece and Taiwan. All three PowerBuoys simultaneously transmitting real time data from offshore at depths exceeding 1,000m, integrated directly into #Anduril ’s Lattice platform. Autonomous docking and charging demo completed. And today, formal European defense engagement expansion announced.

Here’s the honest read on this. The market is still looking at $OPTT as a small loss making marine company. The financials are still rough, the pipeline is real but uncontracted revenue, and the stock is thinly traded. That’s not nothing and I’m not going to pretend the risks aren’t there.

But the company itself has moved. Quietly and steadily, from one research buoy to a multi continent autonomous maritime network running live for DHS, Navy, UAE defense customers, and now actively pursuing European defense contracts. That’s not the same company the market is pricing.

I keep thinking about $ONDS. When it was trading under $1, nobody was paying attention. The backlog was building, the defense relationships were forming, and the market still saw a small drone company losing money. Then the revenue hit, the contracts closed, and the re-rating came fast. The pattern isn’t identical but the dynamic is familiar.

If $OPTT closes one or two European defense contracts, the conversation changes. NATO nations are actively increasing maritime security spending right now, and the technology they need, persistent autonomous offshore surveillance with no crew and no fuel, is exactly what @OceanPowerTech builds. That’s not a coincidence. That’s positioning.

🔗https://t.co/dkxD3jwqoE

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

Yes, this is $OPTT. And what’s happening here is a lot more interesting than just a Coast Guard surveillance story.

@OceanPowerTech Ocean Power Technologies just deployed its first PowerBuoy under a $6.5M DHS contract off the California coast last week. Each buoy sits offshore indefinitely, self powered by wave energy, feeding sensor data into Anduril’s Lattice command and control system alongside surveillance towers already in the water. No shore cables. No fuel. No crew. Just persistent eyes on the ocean running continuously.
The part most people miss is the architecture. $OPTT isn’t just selling hardware to the government. It’s becoming a node in a defense intelligence network that #Anduril is building. Every buoy feeds into Lattice, and the more buoys go in the water, the more valuable the whole network gets. You don’t really replace that once it’s built in.

And the use case isn’t going anywhere either. Migrant smuggling, drug trafficking, adversarial maritime activity off the U.S. coastline. The Coast Guard can’t put manned assets everywhere. Wave-powered buoys that run indefinitely and feed straight into AI driven command systems are a pretty obvious answer to that problem, and nobody else is really doing this at scale.

Backlog up 165% year over year to ~$19.9M. Pipeline sitting at ~$163.9M. First buoy in the water last week. Financials are still a mess, but the #Anduril integration is what makes this story different from a typical small defense contractor.

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

That’s the part I find most underappreciated about $ABCL right now. ABCL688 and ABCL386 both moving toward IND and potentially starting clinical trials around the same time creates a scenario where you could have three programs generating data within a relatively tight window. Q3 for ABCL635, then two more shots at Phase 2 before the end of 2027. That’s a lot of catalysts for a company still trading where it is.

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

$ABCL has been quietly recovering and the more I sit with this company, the more I think the market is still underestimating what’s actually here.

Let me be honest about why I feel this way, because it’s not just the Phase 1 data or the Q3 catalyst, though both matter enormously.

It’s the management.
Carl Hansen founded this company, still runs it, and owns 20.9% of the outstanding shares. That’s a founder with 20.9% of his own company on the line. When he said on the May 11 earnings call that the Phase 1 data showing robust NK3R target engagement at well-tolerated doses with a pharmacokinetic profile supporting once monthly dosing makes him confident heading into Phase 2, that’s not investor relations language. That’s a scientist who spent years building a platform talking about his own molecule.

The financial discipline also reflects that. Q1 revenue of $8.3M, almost double year over year and well ahead of estimates. Loss per share of $0.14 beat the $0.17 consensus. Net loss narrowed. R&D investment increased. Cash and liquidity at $655M with current ratio of 10.2 and minimal debt. For a clinical stage biotech, this is a company being run carefully and thoughtfully, not burning recklessly toward a single bet.

And the institutional read keeps getting stronger. Goldman accumulated 4.3M shares in a single quarter. Baker Bros increased from 9.1% to 10.8% the day before the Phase 1 readout. An insider made a fresh purchase on May 18, after the data was already out. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated Overweight. Evan Seigerman reiterated Buy. Analyst consensus around $8-9 against a stock that’s been recovering from well below that.

A drug discovery engine with 203 clinical programs and 14 molecules in clinical stage, and ABCL635 is just the most advanced one right now. AI driven discovery that helped develop bamlanivimab in under 90 days during COVID. The platform generates value whether or not any single program succeeds.

Phase 2 topline data Q3 2026. $6 billion addressable market with no clean non hormonal solution. A management team with real skin in the game. And a stock that’s been quietly proving the accumulation thesis right.

LONG🚀😉#ABCL

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

$ABCL Called the accumulation phase. The stock is coming back.

When I posted about treating the post-Phase 1 sell off as an opportunity, the thesis was simple. The data wasn’t bad. The market just wanted efficacy numbers that Phase 1 isn’t designed to deliver. Everything that actually mattered came back clean.
And since then the story has only gotten stronger.

Phase 1 data confirmed zero liver toxicity across all doses from 30mg to 900mg. Zero serious adverse events. Strong NK3R target engagement confirmed. Half life of approximately 24 days supporting once monthly dosing. Phase 2 already enrolling. Q3 topline data on track.

Then on May 18, an insider made a fresh share purchase. Goldman sitting on 4.3M shares. Baker Bros increased from 9.1% to 10.8% the day before the readout. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated Overweight. Evan Seigerman reiterated Buy with $7 price target citing strong Phase 1 data and platform strength. Analyst consensus sitting around $9.00 against a current price that’s been recovering.

Revenue doubled year over year in Q1. Net loss narrowed. $655M in liquidity. Four programs in clinical or IND enabling stage. ABCL575 Phase 1 data coming H2 2026. The pipeline isn’t #ABCL635 alone.

Q3 is still the moment. The setup going into it keeps getting cleaner. 😉

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

@jinseongeo83473 @steven_trang4 👍

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

@Tassel_Man ☺️

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

@jinseongeo83473 👍😉Let’s goooooo

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

@sleff30 @digimarc 🙇‍♀️

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

This is the next chapter for $DMRC, and it's a meaningful one.
When I posted about Digimarc @digimarc a while back, the thesis was about AI-generated content, the EU AI Act mandate, and a company that had been quietly building the trust infrastructure for decades. What just got announced takes that thesis into a completely new direction that I didn't fully anticipate.

Autonomous Al agents are the next wave. Not Al that helps humans write or create, but AI that actually executes tasks independently.
Books flights, processes contracts, makes decisions, interacts with other systems without a human in the loop. The problem nobody has fully solved yet is how you verify what those agents are doing. Is this action authorized? Is this content authentic? Did a legitimate system generate this output or was it tampered with?
That's exactly what Digimarc just announced infrastructure for. Provenance and verification for autonomous AI workflows. The same digital watermarking IP they've deployed for 30 years in currencies and physical products, now applied to the layer that validates what AI agents are actually doing and whether it can be trusted.

And this isn't just a press release. The Q1 earnings call CEO said plainly that enterprises will require an ultra-scalable way to verify what is real, authentic and authorized as AI systems become more autonomous, and that idea is gaining widespread acceptance. Pilot programs are already running. They're already in conversations with the U.S. government through the SOFWERX Field Forward Technology Sprint, which is a defense rapid prototyping program. That's not a company guessing at a market. That's a company being pulled into it.
The May 15 holding company reorganization completed cleanly. Still trades as $DMRC on Nasdaq.

Revenue is still small, $7.6M in Q1, and down year over year from two contract losses. The numbers are still ahead of the story. But subscription gross margin hit 90%. The platform itself is highly profitable once customers are on it.
Thirty years of watermarking IP. C2PA co chair. EU AI Act compliance mandate already in force. And now the first provenance infrastructure purpose-built for autonomous AI agents. The market hasn't caught up to what this company is becoming yet.

🔗https://t.co/UhHz1i6PxY

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

Everyone’s chasing semiconductors, space, and AI right now, and honestly same, I’ve been deep in all of it. But there’s one company I keep coming back to quietly, one that’s building something in a completely different direction. That’s $DMRC Digimarc, and let me explain why it’s been on my radar.
They do digital watermarking. Embedding invisible identification into content so you can prove what it is, where it came from, and whether it’s been tampered with. They’ve been doing this for nearly 30 years, and one of their longest running deployments is with a consortium of the world’s central banks to deter currency counterfeiting. Not a new idea for them at all.

And honestly the reason this feels more urgent now is pretty obvious when you think about it. AI generated content is everywhere, deepfakes, synthetic images, AI written text, and the question of is this real is getting harder to answer every single day. Digital watermarking is one of the most viable solutions to that problem at scale, and $DMRC has been quietly building the infrastructure for exactly this for decades without much fanfare.
The 2026 piece is worth paying attention to though. The EU AI Act comes into full force in May 2026, and it mandates watermarking and labeling of AI generated content across the board. Non compliance means fines up to 15 million EUR or 3% of global annual turnover, whichever is higher. This applies to any AI company operating in Europe, which is basically everyone.
What kind of got me was this part. $DMRC developed the industry’s first digital watermarking solution compliant with C2PA 2.1, the standard the industry is converging around, and they co-chair the watermarking task force for that standard. So they’re not just selling into this space, they’re literally at the table where the rules are being written. That’s a different kind of positioning.

The honest risk is the financials are still rough. Small cap, still burning cash, stock has been quiet for a while. The story is ahead of the numbers right now. But regulation moving in this direction with $DMRC sitting at the center of the standard, that’s not nothing. Staying on my watchlist for sure.

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

@CertificatedS ですね☺️

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

SpaceX’s IPO is coming, and the capital flowing into the space sector right now is real. But not all space stocks are created equal, and $RDW Redwire is the name I keep coming back to as the most structurally interesting play in this wave. And I’m not just watching, I’m holding. And the reason I keep coming back to $RDW specifically isn’t just momentum.

Most space stocks are betting on a future that hasn’t arrived yet. Redwire is different because they’re already embedded in the infrastructure that makes space happen today. Their Roll Out Solar Array technology powers the International Space Station, NASA’s Gateway lunar platform, and commercial satellites. When #SpaceX launches, Redwire solar arrays are often on the payload. If SpaceX scales to the launch cadence they’re targeting, the demand for Redwire’s hardware doesn’t speculate about the future. It compounds with every mission.

The MANUS robotic lunar arm for the European Space Agency just completed testing and delivery. Docking systems contract with The Exploration Company, eight figures. Space Force $1.8B Andromeda IDIQ access. In space 3D printing capability that nobody else has at commercial scale. Redwire is building the physical layer that every space economy participant actually needs to operate.

The defense side is also stacking fast. A NATO ally just awarded a multi-year, high eight figure Penguin Mk3 UAS contract. The U.S. Army added a $15M follow-on Stalker UAS order, the third in eight months. Defense and space both accelerating simultaneously under the same roof.

Q1 2026 revenue hit $96.97M, up 57.9% year over year. Record contracted backlog of $498.1M.
The revenue growth is real.
The honest risks are significant.
Q1 missed both EPS and revenue estimates. Gross margin is only 5.2%. The company is still deeply unprofitable. And after a 90%+ move in May alone, the stock is now trading well above analyst consensus of $14.44. This is a volatile momentum name, not a value play.

But the SpaceX IPO doesn’t just bring attention to the sector. It brings sustained capital and sustained launch volume to an ecosystem where Redwire holds the physical infrastructure. Owning a rocket stock is a bet on launches. Owning RDW is a bet on everything those rockets need to carry.

Holding @Redwire $RDW and watching this one closely as the space economy buildout accelerates. 😉

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

This looks small but I think it matters more than it seems for $RDW.

The ~$12.8M is not the story. What stands out is this is both a first sale and a standard component selection.

First sale means ELSA actually made it into a real program. For new space hardware that is usually the hardest step. But being baselined inside Moog’s METEOR platform is the bigger signal.
It does not guarantee revenue, but it creates a path. Every time that platform is used ELSA now has a seat at the table. That is very different from a one off contract.

Technically this lines up with where the market is going. Higher power density lower mass faster production. That is exactly what large satellite constellations and defense systems need.
From an investment perspective this is not about a single contract. It is about positioning inside a platform, and that is where repeat revenue starts to show up.

Feels like Redwire is starting to move from selling parts to getting embedded inside systems.

Market might be missing that.

$RDW

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

@chamono95741942 Ohooo😂😂

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

$HLIT Harmonic has been running since the Q1 earnings drop and the story behind it is worth understanding.

Q1 2026 numbers came in way ahead of expectations. Revenue $121.7M against analyst estimates of $104.3M, a 16.7% beat. Broadband revenue up 43% year over year. Rest of Market broadband up 78%. Backlog and deferred revenue hit $582.1M, up 87% from a year ago. Net income per share $0.17, well past the $0.11 to $0.12 guidance range. Operating profit from continuing operations $26M against ~$18-20M guidance. Full year 2026 broadband revenue guidance raised to ~$475-495M. Every number beat, and then guidance went up on top of it.

The numbers are only half the story though.The company is selling its video business for $145M in cash, expected to close Q2. Once that’s done, $HLIT becomes a pure-play broadband infrastructure company. The cOS software platform virtualizes cable access, running DOCSIS 4.0 deployments for cable operators transitioning from legacy hardware to software-defined networks. Infrastructure that used to require dedicated physical equipment now runs on standard servers. Lower capex for the operator, recurring software revenue for Harmonic.

Customer concentration risk is also quietly disappearing. Rest-of-Market bookings are now over 50% of the total, meaning the business is no longer dependent on one or two large cable operators. That’s a different business risk profile than what the stock has been priced as.

On May 19, Harmonic announced the SeaStar Optical Node enabling cost-effective broadband expansion in brownfield MDU environments. DNA Finland already deploying it to reach multi-dwelling units that fiber couldn’t previously reach economically. New addressable market opening up.
Analyst moves post earnings: Rosenblatt raised target to $20, Buy. Needham raised to $18, Buy. Northland raised to $15, Outperform. Jefferies raised to $15, Hold. $200M buyback authorization also in place.

Honest risks. Insider selling continues, a company director flagged intention to sell 32K shares. Gross margin guidance of 50-51.5% is pressured by memory costs. GF Value flags it as overvalued at current levels. Three-year revenue CAGR of roughly -17% is the overhang the bull case has to work through.

A company pivoting from hardware heavy video into pure play software defined broadband with 43% revenue growth, a record backlog, and multiple analysts lifting targets. That re rating doesn’t feel done yet.

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

@jinseongeo83473 Of course, me too!☺️

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

$ABCL Called the accumulation phase. The stock is coming back.

When I posted about treating the post-Phase 1 sell off as an opportunity, the thesis was simple. The data wasn’t bad. The market just wanted efficacy numbers that Phase 1 isn’t designed to deliver. Everything that actually mattered came back clean.
And since then the story has only gotten stronger.

Phase 1 data confirmed zero liver toxicity across all doses from 30mg to 900mg. Zero serious adverse events. Strong NK3R target engagement confirmed. Half life of approximately 24 days supporting once monthly dosing. Phase 2 already enrolling. Q3 topline data on track.

Then on May 18, an insider made a fresh share purchase. Goldman sitting on 4.3M shares. Baker Bros increased from 9.1% to 10.8% the day before the readout. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated Overweight. Evan Seigerman reiterated Buy with $7 price target citing strong Phase 1 data and platform strength. Analyst consensus sitting around $9.00 against a current price that’s been recovering.

Revenue doubled year over year in Q1. Net loss narrowed. $655M in liquidity. Four programs in clinical or IND enabling stage. ABCL575 Phase 1 data coming H2 2026. The pipeline isn’t #ABCL635 alone.

Q3 is still the moment. The setup going into it keeps getting cleaner. 😉

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

$ABCL dropped Phase 1 data and the stock sold off. I think that’s a mistake.

ABCL635 hit every single checkpoint Phase 1 is supposed to hit.
No liver toxicity at any dose. Zero serious adverse events. Testosterone suppression confirming strong NK3R target engagement. Half life of approximately 24 days, which is exactly what you need to support once monthly subcutaneous dosing.
The pharmacokinetic profile came back clean. The tolerability profile came back clean. The company immediately advanced into Phase 2 on the strength of this data.

The market sold it because Phase 1 doesn’t come with efficacy numbers. That’s a different thing from the data being bad. Phase 1 confirmation is what makes Phase 2 credible, and that’s exactly what this was.

The piece that keeps coming back to me is the hepatotoxicity comparison. Veozah, the only approved oral NK3R drug, has a Black Box Warning for liver toxicity and still pulled $234M in 9 months. ABCL635 showed zero liver enzyme elevations across all doses tested from 30mg to 900mg in the Phase 1 data released last week. That’s the dosing headroom that Astellas never had. If higher doses are safe, you can push efficacy further than Veozah ever could.

Goldman sitting on 4.3M shares. Baker Bros increased from 9.1% to 10.8% the day before the readout. These people saw the data before we did. They added going into the announcement.

$655M in liquidity. EPS beat. Revenue beat. Phase 1 cleared. Phase 2 on track for Q3.

The sell off gave us a better entry on a story that actually got cleaner this week, not worse. Treating this as an accumulation phase.

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

@RealizeNoPain yup 👍 😉

[Alpha @AlAlphaResearch]

@tyler_bosserman That’s 💯👍